For the first time, Xi is missing a China-backed BRICS summit. Why?
A summit of leaders from the BRICS group of major emerging economies kicks off in Brazil Sunday – but without the top leader of its most powerful member.
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There is a power struggle going on in the CCP and Xi is losing.
There is a power struggle going on in the CCP and Xi is losing.
Yes, and acccording to the most recent news/rumors a new CCP leader is expected to be announced rather sooner than later. Most probably next 21st official Party Congress (link).
Are there any insights on what the policy implications of new leadership might be? Or is it less a factional takeover and more a "meet the new manager"?
Speculation:
Are there any insights on what the policy
Afaik, they'd like a more moderate leader.
These are quite recent developments. If you want some updates & insight Lei's Real Talk - YouTube channel is recommended. Also, consider that all news from China is heavily censored, and "good info" is hard to get by.
We will know late August, when the CCP meets and the shakeup is supposedly going to take place. IMO, the time between now and then is dangerous as Xi might make an extreme act to hold on to power.
Like an attack on Taiwan?
Exactly.
Is it the case that the "they" that want a more moderate leader are consistent with the "they" that actually get to make the call?
It's all very complicated and uncertain, and I understand only a bit of it, but basically yes.
Well, here's me pinning my hopes on your interpretation. A few more moderate leaders in the world would be a gigantic relief after so many years of how things have been going. I mostly grew up the last time the world swung a bit more moderate and would be ecstatic to feel that way again.
Where can I learn more about this?
China's Disappearing Generals Put Questions Over Xi's Grip - Newsweek https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-disappearing-generals-put-questions-over-xis-grip-2093606
This is the first I’m hearing of this, so take this with a grain of salt, but Im skeptical of the idea that the dismissal of ‘Xi loyalists’ indicates a weakening of Xi’s position. The thing to remember is that autocrats during peacetime are forced to pick people for top positions who won’t upset the balance of power; loyalty is the primary factor in selection, especially so in this case because the person who controls the military is by far the most dangerous from a coup perspective. Notably, this means that no requirement is made for competence at their given role. Putin faced the consequences of this exact problem in Ukraine, as several of his top brass (see: Shoigu and Gerasimov) were both deeply corrupt and deeply incompetent, and it led to massive issues in the initial invasion in 2022. This could instead be read as a preparation for war, with Xi learning from Putin’s mistakes and clearing out the loyal but not completely competent members of his military command apparatus.
It's still a fine needle to thread. No matter the reason, loyalty is being sacrificed for competency. Lose too much loyalty and you lose control completely.
True. And there is nothing more dangerous to an autocrat than a competent military leader, especially as military victories tend to deliver public support as well. Either way, he’s got a fine line to walk, but if Xi’s time in power has taught us anything, it’s that he’s very good at walking that line.
Winnie the poo gonna lose his pot of honey.
