11mo ago

The NFL kicker revolution is here

www.sbnation.com

In short, kickers are getting better than they ever have been. It coincides with an NFL rule change that has made it easier than ever to get into field goal range. It also coincides with the widespread usage of two-high defenses, which has deflated passing outputs league-wide through two weeks and has forced more and more field goal opportunities.

5 comments

Call me crazy but making statistical arguments as to overreaching shifts and trends League wide after 2 weeks seems rather silly.
The game theory and play balancing of the kicking game is kinda interesting if you think about it. American Football is a game of ratcheting progress to a degree that no other football is, and if include Canadian with it (and maaaaaybe... if you squint... Rugby League), in a manner that no other football is. If you push a pile two more yards, you get to reset and do a set-piece from your new static location. If you manage to cobble together ten yards in four tries of this, you get four more. Field goals are a way to say "nice try, you got halfway there," and therefore there's a minigame, with such a different skillset that it's almost random, to see if your progress should be ensconced in the score. That's pretty unusual in sport, though I know Aussie rules has their wider goal post that gives you fewer points.
The challenge to balance it almost feels analogous to an online game's developers: do the rewards incent the kind of play that people want to see? There are obviously issues of attachment to legacy and physical safety that you have to manage in an IRL sport, but the parallels are neat to me. At an extreme, I guess if every team can eventually make 95% of their 60-yard field goals, does that disincentivize bold offensive play to a degree that fans will enjoy the games less? If so, what do you do? Make the FG 2-points? Ban FG attempts until you're in a certain zone? Narrow the goal posts? This last has been done before in the NFL, as has moving them from the front to the back of the end zone (also a player safety issue).
- Raise the cross bar 50% and narrow the width.
- Deflate the kicking ball a little bit.
Not sure why people are so up in arms about this. I love seeing super long field goal attempts. Instead of thinking of FGs as a consolation prize, teams with strong kickers should be looking at them as a threat.
Now the new landing zone for kickoffs seems to have mostly failed to generate more returns. Perhaps we should look at moving up the touchback starting field position even further, say to the 35 yard line. Combine that a long range kicker and we could see a potent offence generate scoring threats on very few total yards. This makes every single play carry more significance in a drive.