2w ago

'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.

www.commondreams.org 'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60% | Common Dreams

Stocks are plummeting and JPMorgan warns of a 60% risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs.

"The president single-handedly wiped out Americans' retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty."

Business @lemmy.world

'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%

www.commondreams.org /news/trump-tariffs-recession

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Even if Trump removes every tariff a recession is almost certainly coming. Short to longer term planning, hiring, building, etc will certainly slow down and that kind of things is widespread. People lose jobs, people don't get hired, people choose not to start a business or invest money in the USA, etc.
- The MAGA Nazis are fully embracing AI, and full automation is on its way. All the tech exists right now to fully automate every fast food outlet in America. The could have the supplies stored in robotic warehouses, robotically loaded into self-driving trucks, unloaded into the restaurants robotically, prepared robotically, and delivered to the customer, who ordered it on an app or kiosk. All without a single human touching it anywhere along the way.
  Corporations will become wildly profitable with greatly reduced cost of labor and related labor issues (HR, benefits, discrimination, etc), but the additional result will be the loss of millions of entry level and unskilled jobs. These are the jobs where young people learn how to exist in the workplace, where households can have a second income, where people can become managers and make decent livings, etc. And that is only one industry. Every single industry will be impacted by automation and AI, with an enormous net loss of jobs, leading to a permanent unemployment rate in the double digits, possibly as high as 30-40%, or even higher. The impact on the government and our economy of the loss of income tax revenue from those lost jobs is a whole other conversation altogether.
  What will happen to all those unemployed people? There seems to be only two solutions: Universal Basic Income, or reducing the population by the permanent unemployment rate. It's pretty predictable which solution each party would choose, and also pretty predictable how they would choose to accomplish their solution.
  
  There’s only profit to be made if people have money to spend.
  
  And people will have money, If they take a credit and work for less, then an AI would cost, to have enough for the pay the credit card interests.
  
  Not to forget the ability to let middle management go when there are no workers to be managed as well as the people for low level optimization and planning.
  This is a major thing and the reactions are unfortunately downvotes.
  
  The ripple effects will be huge, and touch every industry and every citizen.
  I'll gladly take the downvotes if it gets people thinking about the reality of the future the Sociopathic Oligarchs have planned for us.
  
  UBI is never going to come to the united states. Whats reasonably to going to happen is an uprising and the brutal suppression of it by the police state a la Tianenmen square style or even worse. US have done this against people of color multiple times in its history. This time others will join as well.
  
  UBI is a variation on Trickle Up economics, which we know works well to stimulate the economy, because every time they've made money available to those at the bottom, like the Covid checks, the economy has boomed. The money will eventually end up in the hands of the wealthy anyway, but it will grease the cogs of the economy on the way. The only reason they want the money to go straight from the government to themselves is because they dont want the people getting used to not worrying about our bills. Worried people will accept more employment abuse.
  Trickle Down is unsustainable, and reaching the end of it's run. If they dont get with the program, and start embracing Trickle Up solutions, the citizens are going introduce Robin Hood Economics - Rob from the rich, give to the poor - and they arent going to like that at all.
  
  This assumes that the citizens are capable of fighting back against an armed state which protects the oligarchs. The monopoly of state on violence enforced by the personal cults of various billionaires will quench any chance of a revolution. Add to this the surveillance of means of organizing like sms, signal etc and you get a perfect police state under the control of few. The ideal solution would then be to eliminate the impoverished basic class and live off the land. The only disadvantage is probably the stunting of genetic lineages some generations after. So they might keep some of the impoverished around to make sure that they can keep the genetic pool diverse.
  
  So they might keep some of the impoverished around to make sure that they can keep the genetic pool diverse.
  And as a source of replacement organs, tissues, and fluids when they reach advanced age. After all, they're stripping everything else for parts, who to say they'll stop just before putting poors under the knife to strip us for parts?
  
  That too. It will just be like pigs or chicken now.
  
  This time may be different because the police may have a lot greater reason to join the people than they did in the past. The police's retirements were also wiped out, and the police's family members are a lot more likely to have been affected by those tariffs. I think it's too pessimistic to say what you're saying, because the number of people affected now is significantly greater.
  An uprising seems likely, and an attempt at brutal suppression also seems likely, but the United States regime has also made enemies of almost every other country on the planet, and the groundswell of people is very large. The number of people in the protests today was massive:
  https://www.reddit.com/r/50501/
  If you see the sheer numbers, it's enough to give hope.
  
  🙏
  
  China is likely to get AI before the US does. Innovation here is slowing down.
  
  Companies are drooling at the prospect of replacing workers - it was several years ago when I attended a talk that was about how mining companies are seeking to automate all of it - this around the time when people like donvict were talking up coal-mining jobs and of course the magoffs piled on - if people looking to prop up that industry think it will result in lots of good-paying jobs with dignity, I have a bridge to sell them.
  And that's just one instance...
  
  Mining is a terrible job for humans to do. Automating it has saved millions from death by Black Lung or cave ins or a thousand other things that can kill you in a mine.
  The problem is with the notion that everyone needs a job. We could employ everyone if we paid them to dig a hole and fill it in every day. We could be living like retirees, but all of us need to go to a job for eight hours because an anti-Semite wanted to steal workers from his competitors.
  
  I'm fine with automation if we can have fully automated luxury communism!
  
  Add in "gay space" and I'll agree
  
  To put this in terms Civ VI players will understand:
  MAGA wants a synthetic technocracy
  If Europe follows the Estonian model it will be a digital democracy.
  China is doing optimization imperative.
  
  No, no, and thrice no.
  Technocracy implies a ruling elite of experts in their field, individuals with actual learning and genuine expertise in their given fields.
  This is fascist plutocracyb government by the hyper-rich with no more qualifications than "I have no morals and am willing to climb over others' faces while wearing steel spikes to get yet more."
  There is a world of difference.
  
  Yep. Not sure why you are getting downvoted.
  
  A lot of Americans can't handle the truth. They better start facing it, though, because its going to get a lot worse before it gets better. It's almost certainly going to close in on Great Depression territory, but whats really scary is that we stand a reasonable chance of reaching Nazi Germany/ Final Solution territory. These people are not only capable of it, but they have been promoting it for years. They lie about a lot of stuff, but Ive learned to take them at their word on things like this.
  
  The possibility of a situation like this is why people never succeeded in repealing the second amendment.
  And whether or not we agreed with that fact, it is likely to have some effect on the situation now.
  
  The 2nd Amendment exists for the exact situation we are in today. A literal traitor has manipulated our society to rise to the top and take control for his own nefarious purposes.
  The Founding Fathers foresaw that possibility, and baked the solution into our government, making it second only behind Freedom of Speech and Freedom from Religion.

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