1w ago

How accurate are your predictions of the future?

🔮 (on average) Predictions may relate to your personal life or grand tectonic shifts in our constantly changing world. Assess your own prediction accuracy.

23 comments

Very very bad.
I thought Hillary would win the 2016 election.
- Predicting election results can be very hard, especially if it can be rigged and manipulated for the first time by 1000s of actors. Personally I did not even try to predict who would win, should I?
Getting better the more Marxist-Leninist theory I read. Understanding dialectical and historical materialism, as well as the mechanics of capitalism and imperialism, has allowed me to sharpen my analysis.
- So your success rate with predictions is greater than 50% ?
  
  Kinda? Predictions aren't a binary, often times I get more aspects correct but details wrong. The future isn't knowable, but reasonable and accurate predictions can be made.
100% accurate! Just buy my book, app, and newsletter subscription. Plus brain pills.
- damn how many bitcoin do your pills cost, I want them all
On average, I find the less precise my predictions, the more accurate they become and the more precise my predictions, the less accurate they become.
So rather than predict that I'm 54.3% accurate, I'll just say it's probably roughly half the time at a minimum.
If it has to do with my future - I’ve been spot on way more than not. I can think of multiple times where I’ve been told by someone “no way that would ever happen you’re just catastrophizing” only for it to happen exactly that way shortly thereafter.
About the world? I’m almost never right hahaha, I genuinely can’t remember the last time I was right about anything going on in the world at all.
- Being good at predicting your own future is a good sign for your own intelligence. It means you judge your circumstances well.
- You predicted my next dice roll, a 7, wow!
It doesn't happen too often, but if my mind comes up with a prediction for the next word out of someone's mouth, it's correct about 75% of the time.
- sounds like you are a LLM AI agent.
I am terrible at predicting future events. 70% score I would say. Perhaps I have not all information to be successful predictor.
According to myself? According to others? Or the average of both?
- both would be interesting. But I am more interested in self-assessment of prediction accuracy.
  
  Roughly 90 % if I have access to plenty of data. According to others it's less than 10 %.

23 comments