We used to say “who doesn’t learn from history is bound to repeat it”, but now we are not learning from history, we are planning to emulate it. Incorporating all its biases of any type and rolling with it. Assuming that historic data can and should be used as direct predictor model for future data makes sense for physical systems, not societal systems. Ideals change, people change, what we strive for changes constantly. There is no good way to incorporate that into numerical predictions…
We used to say “who doesn’t learn from history is bound to repeat it”, but now we are not learning from history, we are planning to emulate it. Incorporating all its biases of any type and rolling with it. Assuming that historic data can and should be used as direct predictor model for future data makes sense for physical systems, not societal systems. Ideals change, people change, what we strive for changes constantly. There is no good way to incorporate that into numerical predictions…