Begum and Mobin (2025) conclude that “Canada, China, Japan, India, Indonesia and South Korea will lag behind their targets with more than 10% of a shortage from their target” (p. 13), despite Canada’s commitment to reduce emissions “by at least 40–45% below 2005 levels” by 2030 (Government of Canada, 2025, para. 2).

Meanwhile, the climate crisis is already impacting Canadians. As cited in Burton (2023), Hanes et al. (2019) found that “spring wildfires seem to be on the increase” (p. 5983), and Burton warns that these fires “often defy control” (p. 5983), threatening both ecosystems and communities. Jain et al. (2024) describe the 2023 wildfire season as “unprecedented in its scale and intensity,” noting that “anthropogenic climate change enabled sustained extreme fire weather conditions” (p. 1). The season “burned approximately 15 million hectares—more than seven times the national average—and exposed millions to hazardous air quality” (Jain et al., 2024, p. 2).

References
Begum, A. M., & Mobin, M. A. (2025). A machine learning approach to carbon emissions prediction of the top eleven emitters by 2030 and their prospects for meeting Paris agreement targets. Scientific Reports, 15(1), Article 19469. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-04236-5

Burton, P. J. (2023). Understanding spring wildfires in Canada's northern forests. Global Change Biology, 29(21), 5983–5985. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16879

Government of Canada. (2025, February 12). Canada’s 2035 emissions reduction target. https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/2035-emissions-reduction-target.html

Jain, P., Barber, Q. E., Taylor, S. W., Whitman, E., Castellanos Acuna, D., Boulanger, Y., Chavardès, R. D., Chen, J., Englefield, P., Flannigan, M., Girardin, M. P., Hanes, C. C., Little, J., Morrison, K., Skakun, R. S., Thompson, D. K., Wang, X., & Parisien, M.-A. (2024). Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada. Nature Communications, 15(1), Article 6764. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51154-7