Russia began its Feb 2022 invasion with a massive force advantage over Ukraine in the Black Sea - but over time we've seen the Russian fleet steadily pushed back by a Ukrainian strategy of sea denial driven by anti-ship missiles, reconnaissance drones and, critically, USVs (AKA naval drones)

Those drones have evolved rapidly, to the point where now we've seen them launching rockets or fighting back against helicopters.

So in this episode, I look at the Black Sea campaign since our 2023 update, and examine the evolution of Ukrainian USVs and the Russian response.

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After more than four months of fighting, Ukraine's counteroffensive is grinding on. There have been none of the rapid mechanised advances many Ukrainian allies hoped for. Instead, there has been a hard, grinding assault intended to slowly break into, and eventually through, the main belt of Russian fixed defences.

Today I want to look at the way the counteroffensive has evolved over time, what we've learned about Russian defences and tactics, and what all of that might mean as months of mud and winter cold grow ever closer.

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Usually on my channel we focus on questions of defence economics - elements like national resources, production, stockpiles and logistics that feed into the ability of a nation to carry on a war.

But I also try to always flag the importance of political and social elements as well - the ways in which politics and the will to fight can complicate what would otherwise be a largely mathematical exercise. While those factors are important however, Russian politics is not my area of academic or professional focus.

Today I'm releasing an interview recorded with Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen at the Royal Danish Defence College. Anders has long had a focus on Russia and the Russian military, and so I was keen to get his thoughts on Russia's political and social divisions of power, attitudes towards the war, and how these might factor into Ukraine's theory of potential victory.

All thoughts expressed are obviously his own personal ones (though all slide co

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Ankara's role during the war in Ukraine is a complex and sometimes controversial one. As a NATO member but not an EU state, the Turks have continued to expand their trade with Russia and have continued an open dialogue with Moscow. On the other hand, Türkiye's military industry has supplied Ukraine even before the full scale invasion and Turkish policy has been full throated in its support for Ukraine's territorial integrity - including Crimea.

Turkish policy is complex and, to use the words of a former NATO assistant Secretary General - compartmentalised. It often involves cooperation even with potential strategic rivals, and sometimes tense and transactional interactions with general allies. In this episode I wanted to explore the nation's defence capabilities, economic and strategic situation, and see how that may have helped inform Erdogan's policy in Ukraine - and how that policy may impact the war going forward.

Never mind me, just posting Perun. Haven't even really read the headline yet.

While systems like tanks, jets and cruise missiles tend to capture the public imagination, the war in Ukraine in 2023 is largely being fought with much the same tools as it was in 2022 - artillery.

The constant exchange of fire has been critical to the battle, enabling attrition, blunting attacks and enabling advances. Both sides have continued to adapt, trying to refine their tactics and capabilities while wearing down their opponent.

But in this attritional struggle, losses and resupply of systems, barrels and ammunition matter, not just tactics. Ukraine now finds itself in an ammunition deficit - trying to attack at a time where its allies have not yet ramped up production enough to readily meet its needs.

It's in that context that the US recently announced the supply of cluster munitions to refill Ukraine's ammunition bunkers. Today we look at those munitions, their likely impact, as well as the

Quoth Clausewitz:

War is the continuation of politics by different means.

Quoth the High Lord of Powerpoint:

Why do wars end, and why do some refuse to do?

We spend a lot of time on this channel focusing on how nations prepare for and fight wars - and comparatively little on the thinking that goes into bringing about their end - negotiated or otherwise.

In this episode I take a bit of a break to talk about the theory behind deciding when and how nations might chose to end a war, the various ways in which they might chose to do it - and all the reasons that pure rationality is a pretty imperfect framework for predicting the behaviour of nations.

Apologies for the late release, and I hope you all enjoy.

All hail the Lord of Powerpoint!

The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.

Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.

In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.

Not including the lastest Wagner stunts as is expected from Perun.