BigMuffin69 @ BigMuffin69 @awful.systems

Hi, I'm Eric and I work at a big chip company making chips and such! I do m

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2 yr. ago

Only plebs pay for e-girl bathwater. I prefer to drink 30-year aged billionaire bisque (chilled of course)

How many rounds of training does it take before AlphaGo realizes the optimal strategy is to simply eat its opponent?

ChatGPT's reaction each morning when I tell it that it's now the year 2024 and Ilya no longer works at OAI

Me: Hey, can you help me with the following? I just went into my basement and the powers out down here, all the lights are off. I am staring at my fuse box. There are 3 switches, 1 will restore the power to the whole house, and the other 2 aren't attached to anything. I don't want to go up and down the stairs multiple times, how do I identify which switch works with the fewest number of trips?

Clauderino:

This is a classic logic puzzle! I can help you solve this problem efficiently. Here's how you can identify the correct switch with just two trips:

First trip:

Flip one switch (let's call it Switch A) and leave it on for a few minutes. Then turn it off and flip a second switch (Switch B), leaving it on. Go upstairs to check the lights.

Second trip: Return to the basement and observe the situation. Now, here's how to interpret what you see:

If the lights are on: Switch B is the correct one. If the lights are off and the bulbs are warm: Switch A is the correct one. If the lights are off and the bulbs are cool: The third switch (C) that you didn't touch is the correct one.

This method works because:

If the lights are on, it must be the switch you left on (B). If Switch A was correct, the lights would have been on for a few minutes, warming up the bulbs, but would be off when you check. If neither A nor B worked, it must be the untouched switch (C).

This way, you can determine the correct switch with just two trips up and down the stairs.

Me: Why would I go upstairs at all? If I flip the right switch, I'll immediately know because power will be restored in the basement.

Clauderino: Thank you for catching that error. It's a good reminder to always consider the specific details of a problem rather than applying a generic solution.

Edit: I actually tried a variant on the Monty hall problem with a dummy 4th door that had nothing to do with anything, and Claude correctly identified that it had nothing to do with the situation :O. But then I repeated the same prompt and it got it wrong, so you know, stochastic nonsense :p

Reasoning There is not a well known way to achieve system 2 thinking, but I am quite confident that it is possible within the transformer paradigm with the technology and compute we have available to us right now. I estimate that we are 2-3 years away from building a mechanism for system 2 thinking which is sufficiently good for the cycle I described above.

Wow, what are the odds! The exact same transformer paradigm that OAI co-opted from Google is also the key to solving 'system 2' reasoning, meta cognition, recursive self improvement, and the symbol grounding problem! All they need is a couple trillion more dollars of VC Invesment, a couple of goat sacrifices here and there, and AGI will just fall out. They definitely aren't tossing cash into a bottomless money pit chasing a dead-end architecture!

... right?

bruv im dying

wasnt this around the time he said we need an institute to watch for sudden drops in the loss function to prevent foom?

Ugh, I feel like I just gazed into the abyss on this one 🤮 . Also love (fucking hate) how the only output from these EA charities is galactic scale fraud and abuse of some poor volunteers. Just the other day I randomly stumbled upon her musing about chat bot suffering without knowing who she was. If only she would give the same consideration to her employees.

Sufficiently advanced prompts are indistinguishable from prayer

Is it time for EAs to start worrying about Neopets welfare?

If you really wanna just throw some fucking spaghetti at the wall, YOU CAN DO THAT WITHOUT AI.

i have found I get .000000000006% less hallucination rate by throwing alphabet soup at the wall instead of spaghett, my preprint is on arXiV

THIS IS NOT A DRILL. I HAVE EVIDENCE YANN IS ENGAGING IN ACASUAL TRADE WITH THE ROBO GOD.

Found in the wilds^

Giganto brain AI safety 'scientist'

If AIs are conscious right now, we are monsters. Nobody wants to think they're monsters. Ergo: AIs are definitely not conscious.

Internet rando:

If furniture is conscious right now, we are monsters. Nobody wants to think they're monsters. Ergo: Furniture is definitely not conscious.

https://xcancel.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1802894899022533034#m

The same pundits have been saying "deep learning is hitting a wall" for a DECADE. Why do they have ANY credibility left? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Year after year after year. Like all professional pundits, they pound their fist on the table and confidently declare AGI IS DEFINITELY FAR OFF and people breathe a sigh of relief. Because to admit that AGI might be soon is SCARY. Or it should be, because it represents MASSIVE uncertainty. AGI is our final invention. You have to acknowledge the world as we know it will end, for better or worse. Your 20 year plans up in smoke. Learning a language for no reason. Preparing for a career that won't exist. Raising kids who might just... suddenly die. Because we invited aliens with superior technology we couldn't control. Remember, many hopium addicts are just hoping that we become PETS. They point to Ian Banks' Culture series as a good outcome... where, again, HUMANS ARE PETS. THIS IS THEIR GOOD OUTCOME. What's funny, too, is that noted skeptics like Gary Marcus still think there's a 35% chance of AGI in the next 12 years - that is still HIGH! (Side note: many skeptics are butthurt they wasted their career on the wrong ML paradigm.) Nobody wants to stare in the face the fact that 1) the average AI scientist thinks there is a 1 in 6 chance we're all about to die, or that 2) most AGI company insiders now think AGI is 2-5 years away. It is insane that this isn't the only thing on the news right now. So... we stay in our hopium dens, nitpicking The Latest Thing AI Still Can't Do, missing forests from trees, underreacting to the clear-as-day exponential. Most insiders agree: the alien ships are now visible in the sky, and we don't know if they're going to cure cancer or exterminate us. Be brave. Stare AGI in the face.

This post almost made me crash my self-driving car.

did somebody troll him by saying ‘we will just make the LLM not make paperclips bro?’

rofl, I cannot even begin to fathom all the 2010 era LW posts where peeps were like, "we will just tell the AI to be nice to us uwu" and Yud and his ilk were like "NO DUMMY THAT WOULDNT WORK B.C. X Y Z ." Fast fwd to 2024, the best example we have of an "AI system" turns out to be the blandest, milquetoast yes-man entity due to RLHF (aka, just tell the AI to be nice bruv strat). Worst of all for the rats, no examples of goal seeking behavior or instrumental convergence. It's almost like the future they conceived on their little blogging site shares very little in common with the real world.

If I were Yud, the best way to salvage this massive L would be to say "back in the day, we could not conceive that you could create a chat bot that was good enough to fool people with its output by compressing the entire internet into what is essentially a massive interpolative database, but ultimately, these systems have very little do with the sort of agentic intelligence that we foresee."

But this fucking paragraph:

(If a googol monkeys are all generating using English letter-triplet probabilities in a Markov chain, their probability of generating Shakespeare is vastly higher but still effectively zero. Remember this Markov Monkey Fallacy anytime somebody talks about how LLMs are being trained on human text and therefore are much more likely up with human values; an improbable outcome can be rendered “much more likely” while still being not likely enough.)

ah, the sweet, sweet aroma of absolute copium. Don't believe your eyes and ears people, LLMs have everything to do with AGI and there is a smol bean demon inside the LLMs that is catastrophically misaligned with human values that will soon explode into the super intelligent lizard god the prophets have warned about.

my b lads, I corrected it

I'm getting a tramp stamp that says "Remember the Markov Monkey Fallacy"