On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
According to the latest data from Reuters/Ipsos, Harris is leading Trump in support, 44% to 42%, which falls within the survey’s three point margin of error, the latest suggestion the race between the vice president and former president will be close.
Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.
And with things being basically even, remember that fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting and most of our votes don't matter only a handful of states do.
Harris is going to win. Everyone has been wondering what she’s been doing as VP this entire time. She’s been preparing to step up, win this election, and be an effective President.
Before Biden exited from the race, a Jul 2 poll by Reuters/Ipsos had Harris losing to Trump by 1 point. At that time, the only Democrat polled who beat Trump was Michelle Obama, who had an 11 point advantage over the former president.
Impossible! I've been repeatedly informed that Joe Biden is the only one who could possibly stop Trump. Are you telling me that the party has a better chance without him?! The Russian bots were right all along??
Polls are shit and only snapshots of an overall vibe-like probability - but this is still a very, very good sign.
I hope the people that were adamant about claiming that criticising Biden and urging him to drop out was in some way "bot"-behaviour or traitorous, or just claimed by tankie accelerationists, or whatever, realise that it was more often than not really based on concern of Biden not being able to win. The energy that suddenly got unleashed in this election campaign in just a few days and these new polls clearly show, that there was something to the concerns we had with Biden.
Not saying you were stupid or something for having the perspective you had, there were arguments to be had after all, incumbency bonus and the risk of having a new candidate so close to the election were things to be considered. But from what I witnessed, the discourse got really toxic at times and from at least some people. No, not everyone that wanted to replace Biden was a useful idiot or someone acting in bad faith. There were clear reasons, and in this case, things are very much starting to look like they were valid and good reasons, too. Enthusiasm is really fucking important in election campaigns, and Biden was a black hole sucking any enthusiasm out of any potential campaign.
Of course, there's still work to be had ahead. But things are looking a lot better right now, and maybe another Trump presidency, this time with his fascist cronies being prepared fto properly enact fundamental changes for the worse, can be avoided yet. I'm still fairly pessimistic for the future, and would advise anyone to organise along radical leftist lines (IWW, SRA and local mutual help groups look to me like some of the best organisations at the moment in the US, speaking as a European outsider who may not have the full picture) and connect in networks that are prepared to react to the repression and chaos still on the horizon, but getting a few more years to do that organising while the global crises continue to march on is worth a lot.