God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
I'm starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don't want to call it bias, it's just a blind spot that their model isn't getting all the input for.
Of course it's not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
We cant dismantle the electoral college easily, but what we can do is revoke the law putting caps on the number of representatives and electoral college votes. It wouldnt be perfect but it may be enough to knee cap the GOP for awhile. Also pass a law that allows reps to vote remotely from home offices in their districts.
Unless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn't happening. IE: it isn't happening.
There are in fact a couple of workarounds for this.
If Harris wins and Dems get enough majority control of both houses (enough to get around likely no votes from maverick Dems like Joe Manchin), then the Senate majority leader (Schumer) can lower the bar for a filibuster to a bare majority.
Then pass a new law appointing nine new Supreme Court justices. Harris nominates them and the Senate approves them.
Then pass a new federal law that requires the electoral vote of states to follow the nationwide popular vote, as per the Compact. You get the same effect without needing the States to sign on, and with the court packed the law hopefully will be able to withstand the challenges.
Basically pass a law that allows each neighborhood of DC to be admitted in as a new state - so 127 in all - and with the new supermajority of states (and corresponding supermajorities in both Houses), pass whatever constitutional amendments are required.
If his first presidency during COVID wasn't enough motivation to move to the boonies, a subsequent one without COVID won't be.
But, I sincerely hope to see you out here with us who've effected the idea. There's lots of space and, based on why you'd leave, we'd love to have you.
Don't worry about the red hats. Most of them are fucking awesome to the people right in front of them. It's the scaled anonymous crowd they can't process.
I really hate our electoral college system. Giving undue privilege to certain regions, most especially rural areas, is exceedingly stupid and just holds this country back so very much. It'd be one thing if more weight was given to the areas that the most going for them - as far as GDP/brain power/influence and so on. But instead, it's the opposite.
Apologists for the slavery-era holdover that is the EC will say "but the candidates will just mostly go to big cities" - yeah, NO KIDDING. That's where the fucking people are. That's who the government serves. Not land. Right now the candidates mostly campaign in "battleground states" because of the stupid and backward EC. Instead of trying to get the most votes across the entire nation.
Ridiculous.
Our Senate and House are not that much better than the way we choose Presidents, either. The population of states is not given proper consideration, even for the House.
"person may lose the election by getting the most votes" is this even a thing outside the US?
i know winning without a majority vote is a thing in multiparty systems where the winner will have plurality instead... but having the majority vote and losing is just fucking insane to me.
Whether it's possible for a party to win a majority of votes but lose an election, in a first-past-the-post system, will depend on the how the electoral districts are drawn, the voter turnout in each district, and the geographical distribution of the majority. The system itself does allow this to happen.
i was talking about general elections. usually the popular vote determines it, no matter where the votes come from. you're still talking about electoral college, not fptp.
It's possible by using votes to mean a meaningless number that isn't part of how a president is elected. It would be like complaining that getting the most roses on opening night should make someone the best actor.