I’ve migrated from cloudflare pages to cloudflare tunnels as I wanted to do a little bit more.
I can’t segregate my network as my ISPs router is rather limited, which means no vLANs. Connecting another router would introduce a double nat as they don't allow bridging. So I'm running my website basically "raw" in a hyperV virtual machine. the website is semi-static and made out of flatfiles, therefore it's is quite impossible to login into it. as stated before i’m using cloudflare tunnels to expose a nginx server to the interner. what are the chances someone or something (bot) inflataring my network? 100% safety is not possible but how safe am i?
You've already taken a great step by setting up Cloudflare tunnels, as that will obfuscate your WAN IP, but a common mistake I see a lot is having another random device on a network that is perhaps using a DDNS that doesn't obfuscate A records or something like that.
Basically, just make sure everything that is public/internet-facing is going through CF tunnels and you're as protected as you can (reasonably) can be - from that angle at least.
Keep in mind though, this just (largely) prevents one vector of attack - through your WAN IP - depending on your set-up, you could (and likely do) have other ways of penetration to get into your network.
I am a big proponent of getting something like a Firewalla to mitigate many other vectors. They're bit pricey (though for their capabilities relative to other "off the shelf" devices, not really, I suppose) but largely hands-off.
Not so much will someone be assed about it, it’s whether a script will pick you up your server. There’s a ton of aggregation search engines that scan most IPv4 addresses and list them on what ports are open etc. such as Shodan.io
Connecting another router would introduce a double nat as they don't allow bridging.
Maybe you should try connecting another router nontheless. Double NAT isn't nice, but not having VLANs and generally being bound to your ISP router isn't either. I'm behind a double NAT for some time now and my network still works fine.
Run your hosting inside a docker container. If someone were to hack you they, in theory, would only have access to whatever is in that container and not your entire server. Someone with more expertise please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. I am not an expert in this, just offering what I (think I) know.
Exactly. Even if they make it into your network (which would be somewhat unlikely already, since CF obfuscates your home IP), as long as you don't run your docker containers in "privileged" mode (or give the containers RW access to important directories on your server), you'd be fine except for the most end-of-world scenarios.