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Why plans are already in motion for a Trump third term – no matter what the law says

Summary

Plans for a potential Trump third term are already being discussed, despite constitutional limitations.

Trump's former strategist Steve Bannon has suggested they're "working on it," while Trump himself has made several hints about running again after 2028.

Some Republicans, like Congressman Andy Ogles, have proposed amending the 22nd Amendment to allow three terms.

Constitutional law professor Michele Goodwin warns that Trump's administration has already shown "a display of lawlessness" with controversial executive orders and policies, while critics note Democratic opposition has been largely absent, allowing these discussions to gain traction.

45 comments
  • Without a constitutional amendment, it's not going to happen. Even the secret service will intervene, following the orders of the legitimate president over Trump.

    Even if there is no election, the 25th amendment continues to operate, and there is still a valid line of succession. Trump's and Vance's terms end in January, 2029. Trump is out.

    Without an election, all House seats would be vacant, so there would be no Speaker. The line then goes to the President pro tempore of the Senate. Since only 1/3 of Senate terms expire in any election year, there is still a functioning Senate. It can select a "President pro tempore of the Senate", who is 4th in line for the Presidency.

    If there is an Electoral College, its votes cannot be certified by a non-existent House of Representatives, which means a president cannot be selected. However, the Senate certifies the EC votes for the Vice President, and/or selects the Vice President if the votes cannot be certified for some reason.

    With either the senate-selected Vice President, or the senate-selected President pro tempore of the Senate, there will be a non-Trump president in the White House in January, 2029.

    • That’s assuming he doesn’t install yes-men to all important positions in the government.

      Good thing we haven’t seen any signs of THAT happening yet. /s

      • At that point, the Constitution is no longer valid, and we've entered into a second civil war between everyone who understands the phrase "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice," and everyone who does not.

    • Without a constitutional amendment, it’s not going to happen.

      Do you think the Constitution is a magical, sentient, self-enforcing entity? If the people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution are unable or unwilling to do so, the Constitution is just a really old piece of paper.

      Even the secret service will intervene, following the orders of the legitimate president over Trump.

      The same could be said for the media, our politicians, our universities, etc. Every institution that people said would hold the line against this kind of autocratic takeover has opted to roll over and play dead instead.

      Even if there is no election, the 25th amendment continues to operate, and there is still a valid line of succession. Trump’s and Vance’s terms end in January, 2029. Trump is out.

      See above. If your statement were true, then we wouldn't even have a President Trump because the 14th amendment would also have continued to operate and disqualify him from even running. But instead they just handwaved the 14th amendment away as unenforceable (read: Inconvenient). Someone has to actually invoke the 25th amendment, and Trump has purged anyone with the authority to do so.

      Plus, the 25th amendment is intended for Presidents who are functionally unable to perform their duties. Coma patients. Severe stroke victims. Medical conditions. Stuff like that. And in case you don't know, even if someone does try to invoke the 25th, all Trump has to do is basically show up and say "I am able to perform my duties" under his own power, and the invocation is automatically nullified.

      Trump is a functional moron, and is terrible at the job, but he meets the minimum standards to remain in power under the 25th amendment. It's not supposed to be an out against Presidents who do the job badly, it's supposed to be a remedy for those who are physically unable to do the job at all. Trump does not meet that criteria.

      Without an election, all House seats would be vacant, so there would be no Speaker. The line then goes to the President pro tempore of the Senate. Since only 1/3 of Senate terms expire in any election year, there is still a functioning Senate. It can select a “President pro tempore of the Senate”, who is 4th in line for the Presidency.

      If there is an Electoral College, its votes cannot be certified by a non-existent House of Representatives, which means a president cannot be selected. However, the Senate certifies the EC votes for the Vice President, and/or selects the Vice President if the votes cannot be certified for some reason.

      With either the senate-selected Vice President, or the senate-selected President pro tempore of the Senate, there will be a non-Trump president in the White House in January, 2029.

      If we're at a point where Trump suspends elections, none of this would apply any longer. Who remains in power would be dictated by who's currently in power. Again, the Constitution is not a magical self-enforcing document. If the people in power are unwilling to enforce it, it becomes a really old piece of paper.

      • Do you think the Constitution is a magical, sentient, self-enforcing entity? If the people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution are unable or unwilling to do so, the Constitution is just a really old piece of paper.

        The "people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution" are "We The People", and We The People are, indeed, following it. The Constitution tells us that Trump is currently president; we are allowing it.

        Every institution that people said would hold the line against this kind of autocratic takeover has opted to roll over and play dead instead. follow the Constitution.

        FTFY. We are all currently allowing Trump to be president because the Constitution says he is. That stops being true on 20 January, 2029.

    • I couldn't help but notice a lot of those arguments are based on procedures described in the constitution, a document which is strangely being ignored a lot lately.

      Personally I doubt he will get a third term, but its certainly possible, and he will almost certainly try.

      • It's not being ignored, at least not by the people who actually matter: We The People.

        The constitution tells us that he's currently the president. We are following the constitution.

        When the constitution tells us someone else is president, we'll follow that, too.

    • States elect the president; they put him on the ballot. If he tries to do something unconstitutional, he won't be on the ballot in many states. And the Democrats may control the House. The Senate (or all of Congress) can try to discount returns from those states, but at that point we're looking at a Supreme Court case, and everyone involved will know that if that's ruled poorly, there's a good chance it'll result in the dissolution of the republic, and war.

      In other words, it's very unlikely. But a lot can happen in four years.

      Don't be a soft target. Buy a gun. Learn how to use it.

      • If he tries to do something unconstitutional, he won't be on the ballot in many states

        Of course. I was considering a worst-case scenario in which elections were somehow suspended in 2028, so that the states could not elect a different president.

    • I'm assuming he will just run as VP with Vance or one of his sons as President, but still functionally serve the same role.

      • Can't. You have to be qualified to run for president in order to run as VP. He isn't eligible to run again.

        You can serve out less than two years of another president's term, and still be eligible to be elected to two terms of your own. For example, Harris could have replaced Biden two years into his term, in which case she probably would have won in 2024, and remained eligible to run in 2028. You can be president up to (but not including) 10 years.

45 comments