No, electric vehicle sales aren’t dropping. Here’s what’s really going on
No, electric vehicle sales aren’t dropping. Here’s what’s really going on
Tesla’s slashing prices. Ford just cut the price of its Mustang Mach-E, too, plus it cut back production of its electric pickup. And General Motors is thinking about bringing back plug-in hybrids.
Tesla has been slashing prices. Ford just cut the price of its Mustang Mach-E, too, plus it cut back production of its electric pickup. And General Motors is thinking about bringing back plug-in hybrids, possibly taking a step back from GM’s earlier commitment to shifting straight to pure EVs.
And now the EPA is considering slowing down requirements for automakers to sell more electric vehicles, dialing back what had been aggressive plans to move away from gas powered cars and SUVs.
You’d be forgiven for thinking the American market for EVs is collapsing. But in the last quarter of 2023, EV sales were up 40% from the same quarter a year before, according to Cox Automotive. In fact, EV sales in the United States hit a record last year, topping 1 million for the first time.
Still there is a troubling gap between expectations and reality. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, for instance, had projected sales of 1.7 million plug-in vehicles in 2023, but only 1.46 million ultimately sold. (BNEF’s figures include plug-in hybrids, but the large majority are fully electric vehicles.) The trend line isn’t slanting upward as sharply as many had predicted so the industry is lowering future estimates.
Industry experts cite a number of reasons for this, including vehicle price, lack of charging capacity and confusing tax credit rules.
In my country the main issue with EVs is that they are just out of pretty much everyone's price range. The vast majority here buy used cars because new ones are just too expensive and used EVs aren't really a thing. Like seeing 20 year old cars is a common sight here while I have seen 1 EV in the capital over the last 5 years.
28This is why I buy 10-20 year old cars. I can get something decent and within my budget ($10-15K), and it will generally still be safe enough in a crash (especially if you have side airbags).
Let me know when I can buy a convertible sports car EV for under $15K, and I'll trade my 350Z that same day.
11
This seems pretty easy to me... If the number sold in some time period is less than the number sold in the previous time period, then sales dropped. If it's greater, then sales rose. I'm having trouble seeing where the confusion is coming from.
24Because it's not always that simple. If the sales for the last 2 years are as follows:
2022 Q1: 0.8m, Q2: 0.7m, Q3: 1.0m, Q4: 1.1m 2023 Q1: 0.9m, Q2: 0.8m, Q3: 1.1m, Q4: 1.2m 2024 Q1: 1.0mYou'd be "technically correct" (the best kind of correct!) to say that sales dropped from from 2023 Q4 to 2024 Q1. But in all likelihood, no sales didn't drop.(edit: dear god the markdown on this site is fucked.)
13It's those that want to paint EVs as failing causing problems. There's been a spate of stories suggesting companies are changing their mind about EVs. They're not, I think they've just had to make lots to satisfy pent up demand and now they ongoing sales rate is lower.
However, more companies are entering the market, and dividing an increasing market between more of them.
2
The tax credit nonsense sucks, it should just be a simple subsidy such that the sticker price goes down. Also shift funds from directly subsidizing the cars and use it to put in chargers, offer loans for landlords to install them in rental's parking spaces and transit and protected bike lanes to reduce the need for cars in the first place
13On paper, that’s a great idea.
In practice though, you can expect the dealers to markup the difference, so the consumer pays exactly the same.
At least with the tax credit, dealers still have to account for sticker shock.
Edit: Looks like you’ve edited the message since my reply. So continuing:
They do offer subsidies on home chargers, both installation and the device itself, also through tax credits. Though you have to be careful, if your tax credits on the car exceed your taxes for that year, the credit for the charger is worthless.
I may be smart to make your EV purchase towards the end of one tax year, and the charger at the beginning of the next.
7
The public charger situation is still a mess. The more cars are sold, the more the demand will go up. On weekends, many are full, especially along popular road-trip routes. Sort that out and it will help unblock mainstream adoption.
11I find it odd to compare the US and European situations with infrastructure.
US: two companies have national networks, with a hundred miles between each site.
Europe: about 20 different sites between 50kW-350kW withing 10 miles of me, run by 10 different companies.
I know we have different requirements, but it's really getting that chargers are as frequent as fuel stations in some areas.
2
Wouldn't the slashing prices mean a short term increase in sales? I don't see how that proves sales aren't dropping long term (or that they didn't drop before the sales).
5Prices were also raised. I think the Ford Lightning with the price cuts is still more expensive than at release.
7
1.4M for new EVs seems like a good number for the US. Were used EV sales counted and included? I suspect many who want an EV and balk at the lame dealer shenanigans (from dealers who aggressively gouge or disincentivize EV sales) are finding their ride in the used market.
1