The fact that 90% of people don't give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that's it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they'll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we've got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that's a long shot.
There's more than a few reasons why Linux can't make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they'd need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn't work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I'll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I'll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they've taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions "computer", and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I've mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I've encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn't work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of "it all just works all the time", the more adoption you'll see.
There one glaring issue. Most people don't really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.
I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it's a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn't just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).
It's funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.
No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.
We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.
I honestly don't care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to....
Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can't get rounded corners right.
We say this every fucking year! Come on, this is getting ridiculous! Stop it! There will never be a year of the Linux desktop and if anything, this post shows why.
So much of the Linux community is utterly detached from what really matters to most users and focus on things that 80% of people won't ever understand, care about or even use.
We focus on this and meanwhile, little quality of life features constantly get ignored when these are the real things that users will encounter and that will piss them off. They get treated as trivial. They get ignored in favor of other things.
Somebody mentioned it here. I saw it and I didn't need them to mention it to want to say it. It's already something that's pissing me off. On Fedora for my Framework Laptop there is no way to adjust the scrolling speed on my trackpad which is moronically fast.
We are on the 40th release of Fedora, the 46th release of GNOME, and somehow this still isn't baked in. I still have to go look around and use the fucking terminal to do something this basic. When some of them try Linux and will eventually push them to go back to Windows. And when users complain about this, what do we get? A bunch of elitists telling them to fuck off to go back to Windows, which I also saw as responses to this complaint about the trackpad.
Listen, Linux is an amazing project and I love it. I daily drive it. I don't use Windows anywhere in my life. I haven't touched OS in like two years at the very least. So many things that we are celebrating as brand new things that are finally working properly are things that already work by default on Windows and have been for years. We're not going to convince people by mentioning that, "oh, we fixed this thing that's been working forever on Windows." It works on Linux now. People need more than this.
You want to know the sad truth? Here we go. We, collectively here, users of platform like Lemmy, are a vocal minority who are detached from the reality of most users. We care about ads, we care about privacy and so on, but the reality is most that people don't. Most people won't even notice that those things are there. For so many people, Windows is just the thing that stands between them and launching Chrome. It already works for them. There's no reason for them to switch.
We are all way too invested in what runs on our computers and we forget that we are just us. Most people are not like us. Privacy scandals stop us from using stuff like social media and so on, but it clearly hasn't stopped most of the world.
People heard about the shit that Meta was and is doing. Did people stop using Instagram? No, they didn't. People know what Google is doing, how many of them switched to DuckDuckGo? A clinical moron turning the platform into a far-right haven didn't stop most users from using Twitter.
The API bullshit didn't stop most users from using Reddit. Sure there were protest, but I guarantee you that 99% who took part in the blackout just went back to it after. A lot of us didn't. We left. We're here now. But we're still a tiny minority.
Ask a Firefox user did telling Chrome users that privacy was important ever worked? I'm sure you will get examples of it working but it's a minority. Most people don't give a shit and they use Chrome.
I don't have a solution. I'm sorry, I made this long-ass comment but I don't have much else to say. I don't have a good solution to this problem.
Joking lol but serious that it will never happen. Windows has waaay too much of a monopoly for that to never happen.
Like wtf, am I supposed to tell my mom to use the terminal to download ms word? Oh wait sorry you can use libre office! It's the same but...... Well it looks different. And isn't as functional.
My personal definition of "the year of the Linux desktop" is when we hit a market share % that starts to convince companies to take Linux support seriously. I don't think we're that far off from that happening and if Microsoft keeps adding in these terrible "features" to windows, more people will move over. Is 2024 the year for that? Probably not but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens before 2030.
It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.
Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.
I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.
That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.
I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.
The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.
As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.
This isn't the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won't stand for it.
There’s absolutely zero reason to expect Linux mass adoption as it is NOT happening anytime soon. What can happen instead is increased market share to something like 10% and even that is super optimistic from a long time user perspective.
The focus should mainly go to relatively technical users that can at least manage basic stuff and not mass market consumers. It’s good when people try Linux, yes, but it’s even better when they find it useful, it does what they need and they keep using it, not just trying and go back to a primarily supported OS that’s maybe invasive but “at least it works”.
Start taking up a noticeable share of the demographic of systems? Probably
Before this year is out I'm switching my systems to Linux and before Windows 10 EoL I'm having to switch some relatives to Linux because their systems can't handle Windows 11 and I'm not going to buy them new systems.
The thing with Linux for the mainstream is that nobody cares about ntsync and HDR, because this stuff has been the norm for five to ten years on Windows.
You can't install the most recent version of MS Office or Photoshop in Linux. Only Steam works well. No, Heroic is not a usable alternative because the people making the games never tested them on it.
Linux is starting to eat Microsoft's lunch through Chromebooks, though. The Steam Deck also helps. And, of course, Android brings Linux to like half the planet. Linux for the general consumer is already here, but not in the form people who know how to install Linux want it to be.
Large scale manufacturers pre-installing Linux? Readily available multi-language support for home users? Coherent UI regardless of computer and distro underneath. Billions on lobbying money spent on politicians for favorable policy crafting? Billions spent on marketing campaigns to actually sell the idea to the masses who simply don't care any of your points (or any technical reasons, privacy or anything else that might be top of mind of the current Linux userbase).
I'd say Linux has a good chance of capturing 5-6% of the market in the coming years if lucky (I believe we're somewhere around 4% at the moment), unless one of the big tech monopolies decides to start throwing money into it (Like Google did with Android)
I hope you're right. What I did was let my kids use Linux, whatever distro they wanted, and they have used Windows only at school. I think this is the way to do it, expose this growing generation to good software and keep them away from the enahitified ones, while explaining the importance and joy of privacy.
If we all do that with our kids, the next generation will have less sheep following all the commercial crap out there.
Unless Linux is the default, it will never become significant in the mainstream. It is however thanks to improvements like these that OEMs can consider selling it pre-installed
Also I would to remind some here that the reason Linux can exist on the desktop today is because it is a very good way for Microsoft to get less antitrust fines. Otherwise the bootloaders would all be locked and there would be one or two devices that are unlocked.
This is also my main concern about the Qualcomm elite x: everybody is saying "hurray it will support Linux" but the actual cpu support was never really the issue. It's the boot process and device trees that is problematic and I don't see this being talked about enough. If it does not adhere to a standard device detection process like with Acpi via Arm System Ready we are cooked for arm laptops.
I wonder if atomic desktops would change manufacturers' mind. We have to admit LTSes like from Ubuntu failed to make pre-installed Linux popular.
Silverblue contains too much cutting-edge software to be pre-installed as of now, but if Red Hat decides to provide a mechanism for manufacturers to better stabilize Silverblue I'd take it seriously. Automatic updates with cleanly split customization mechanisms, and the source is available. If the PC is just supposed to do web browsing with couple peripherals like a fucking printer (don't ask me why), it might be preferable over Windows. And my relatives can't configure Windows on their own anyway.
At the same time I don't know why Chromebook isn't more popular cus it's probably good enough for 90% of use cases. (The rest is basically elderly people who want 10GB photos in their 2TB SSDs, only to lose them "accidentally". Maybe Chromebook can do that, too, but I just can't recommend it due to corner cases I'm not aware of. I mean, I don't want to test Chromebooks for my relatives.)
Any source regarding "VR being usable" on linux? The current development seems pretty stale and it doesn't seem like that's gonna change anytime soon, especially if you own any Oculus headsets that predates the quest. I do hope the rumors of valve making the deckard are true, but those are just rumors and should be taken with a grain of salt.
I think it's going to take a Microsoft catastrophe, something that disables machines for at least a few days. I'm thinking maybe a buggy windows update.
Been seriously thinking of switching to linux for my desktop. I mostly use it for games. Today I was looking at mods for Mass Effect, and the mod manager says in all caps - LINUX IS NOT SUPPORTED :(
There's probably going to be a lot of that sort of annoyance for years.
Most people don't care. And that says someone who replaced his Windows XP when Vista was the newest shit on the market (I also had a Vista laptop back then). With every Windows version people argued and posted about The Year of Linux Desktop. If you are talking about number of users, then Linux on Desktop will not dethrone Windows in 2024. Most people don't care or the switch is painful in many ways. Don't get your hopes too high. My following argumentation is critical, but I am a Linux fanboy. Have that in mind.
KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability
What exactly do you mean by that? KDE and Gnome reached usability long time ago. However thanks to Wayland the stability got a huge hit, plus KDE was always a bit wonky in regard that. But otherwise these are great desktops with good usability for a long time now. Way better than what Apple or Windows has to offer.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
This is not new in 2024, or did something happen here?
Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Better than what? Than the previous version? This is always the case and people don't switch from Windows to Linux because of that. After all, the application is available on Windows too.
... will be ... before end of 2024 ...
Will be remain to be seen if this is true. If there is one thing I learned is, don't trust estimation when software will be finished.
NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
This has no impact on Proton, but Wine as far as I understand. Proton already has an alternative that is similar to NTSync. So from performance standpoint, it has no impact on Steam games.
Not on the MS side for sure, they've always made sure they don't follow their own spec so they can more easily vendor-lock. Typical EEE from the company that coined it.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
That, per se, no, both XP and 7 kept existing for years, but 11 around the corner with ads and recall... that may steer some people away. Edit: as will inflated minimum system requirements at every release.
Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
Those are OS-agnostic and a way to keep using MS apps. Office is one of the hardest to let go (because of aforementioned reasons), especially in a corporate environment - which, most likely, is the bulk of MS customers in terms of revenue.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
As a new Linux, the hardest time that i have had with it, has been with my hard discs, and having software recognize them or save data on them. Its been a mess to find them on different file explorers and file pickers. I know that longtime users will explain the logic to it, but it is not intuitive. Also understanding root drive, root access and root user. Still not 100% sure i understand it. Things need to get simpler and more self explanatory for Linux to replace windows.
Like. I can't even rub Wayland on my 4090. Its a black screen. This happens with manjaro kde. With mint I can at least see my (frozen, unresponsive, unusable) desktop.
This all sounds cool and stuff but I kind of wish people would, like, shut the fuck up about Wayland? My understanding is that NY experience.is far from unique. People that own PCs have nvidia cards. Unless "the year of the Linux desktop" involves everyone vaporating anmd cards that magically have cuda cores somehow out of their asses then nothing about Wayland really matters to us.
You can "get an and" card to me all you want, but here's the thing: I don't fucking want one. I use my cuda cores. Its why I spent as much as I did on a 4090.
I guess 555 is supposed to make Wayland work with nvidia?
I mean, look. Using an nvidia card with Linux, and getting the requisite drivers working, can be am experience akin to having your has deferens ripped out by an aging badger. I get it. But until I can nvidia while I Wayland I just don't care. And I'm not alone.
I've noticed a LOT of pushback against the ads in MS shit. Microsoft has become greedy (well what am I saying, they've always been, kist really effin more greedy now) and somehow seems to invest even less in development. All Microsoft apps I see today are just painfully painfully bad. Again, not that they've ever been particularly good at anything besides keyboards, but lately it's been comically worse.
I've seen Linux desktop grow significantly now, and I really do see it happen that Linux crosses that threshold where there is just no more stopping it
Tl;Dr "I want my~ I want my~ I want my NixOS~". Yes, I am that old. Shut up.
I love the enthusiasm... but I must disagree :( unfortunately, much to my sheegrin bacuse I want to spite Linux commenter on this sub so badly because they are a bunch of brogrammers, but for me the year of the Linux desktop has to happen at the hands of device manufacturers. "Monopoly-by-default" is real, always has been, and never ever really left. Don't take your eyes off Microsoft or Apple for one second - the bastards - because when you do, you fall into the vendor lock-in trap.
I personally think the EU should publish a bespoke bootloader with a gallery of operating systems that can be fetched using PXE, with image signing and checking of course, sort of like the "browser choice" alternative for OS's. It doesn't need to be the main bootloader, but it has to be available - and most likely GRUB2... because GRUB2 is everywhere. It's what boots MacOS on M* machines. It's the one boot loader to rule them all. What I'm saying is we're in the year of GRUB2.
Anyways, outside my ideal there's really nothing that will bring the "year of the Linux desktop" popularity wise, besides a large vendor relying on the actual Linux desktop stack - which is possible, but there's probably a reason why Samsung bet on Enlightenment, and it's not because it's creator is so enlightened. MIT spelt in South Korean translates to MINE.
One thing 2024 has also stood for is cleaning house. GNOME was caught breaking their own strict rules, KDE keeps ironing out the ancient from the Plasma desktop paradigm, though now KWin has better Wayland support than Mutter for some reason, even though one has had Wayland support for years (a real tortoise and the hare situation this), and people are obsessed with a display server that nobody develops for anymore. (XWayland is XWayland, not X11). So finally we're in the year of Wayland. Good bye, screen tearing. Hello breaking with protocol and causing screen corruption. Oy vey.
In regards to developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, developers, and developers, then I look at the Rust stack, I look at the Zed stack, even the C# stack, or even a certain GUI framework with its own IDE built entirely using its own Emscripten SDK (can't remember the name for the life of me). Here I see some new ways of doing the same thing and creating cross-platform solutions from the get-go, that might bring in new products and services on the Linux side.
But we already have access to more private and public services in software form on Linux than ever before before, so maybe the year of the Linux desktop passed us by but as a lackluster metric and Linux as a desktop (or LaaD as I'd like to call it, because I'm a moron) really won't be popularized until one of the major vendor completely screws the Pooch, and then someone brings a solution based on the Linux stack. Come on, Copilot+ and System76...
Also, NixOS is finally trying to fix it's issues, which is great, because Nix could realistically be a reproducible stack across systems, which can be tested by spitting out a single flake file. I see it as an addition to Flatpaks, Snaps and even AppImages. I want to petition Ableton to bring Live Linux, because I know in my heart of hearts that they've hired people with NixOS experience and that the Push 3 standalone needs some form of OS. But NixOS is a perfect example of why people are asking what happened to the year of the CoC's? Maybe we can do a reboot.
So in conclusion, I'm over here waiting for the year of NixOS, which will be a lackluster event where nobody is happy with, most likely celebrated by another institutional figure having to walk it off. See you in 10-15 years.
So, I checked how my fav game is doing on proton, and it's Linux as usual. Mostly fine with recent efforts. Someone patched proton to resolve many remaining issues, but some people still experience issues.
As a tech geek who fucks around with my set up, I'm usually going to be an idiot belonging to that category of some people who face problems.
And if I use Windows the game dev will do the work. Sad reality.
I'd argue that it really doesn't matter. Linux has taken over everything else. And the more MS fucks up, the more likely people will look for alternatives. I do believe many will go to Mac, but Linux is clearly picking up some of the slack as well. Microsoft wouldn't be the first tech company to take a tumble. Never say never.
A non-AI generated image - it communicates to artists that they're not welcome, while Linux is getting there in support for artists (Krita, LMMS, etc.).
A debugger with a GUI - no, I don't care about writing shell scripts to automate debugging.
Server-side decorations on Gnome - just add an option for it FFS!
A way to easily recover from a crash during an update - I was lucky that I could do it from the command line, but my Ubuntu still likes to crash the VM host if I open Nautilus.
Drivers.
Linux devs not throwing a temper tantrum for a driver not being GPL. I know, that would be the ideal, but corporations gonna corporate.
Also web-native apps are a web 2.0 mistake, and lead to the abandonment of many portable GUI frameworks in favor of the "what if your pops didn't had to install Word Processor, and instead just had to type wordprocessor.com into his browser" idea of some techbro. Do you know why your ÜBERGAMERMOUSE Ultrautility is 250+MB? Because they're all Electron apps!