Remote View
Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
You're viewing a single thread.
128 comments
-
As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here's the map:
-
Those polls don't account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off
-
Yup, like I say, this is the bottom.
-
this is the bottom
What does that even mean? You sure spent a lot of energy spreading completely useless and out of date information.
-
It's what we have and it's Harris' starting point.
Where she goes from here? 🤷♂️ But if we don't track what we have NOW, we won't be able to see how she improves (or doesn't) a week from now, a month from now, or two months from now.
When we get another "national polling suggests..." article in October, it will be interesting to re-run the stats and compare them to this. They should be VASTLY different.
But what makes it interesting is the progress she makes between now and then.
-
-
-
-
So ESPN favors trump is what you are saying. That site is owned by them. Always look at the bias.
-
They're aggregating polls with a public methodology. Just because an organization exists doesn't mean it is pushing a bias in everything it does. If you're going to claim a bias point it out, say what they are doing to bias the results, you can't infer it from results.
-
You can't get anything unbiased if the site is owned by a huge corporation. You can get that fantasy out of your head. That site is nothing but polls by disney.
-
But it's polls by everyone.
And yes you CAN get unbiased information from a huge corporation. Do you have a weather app? Book publishers are corporations, are Earth Science textbooks biased for one political candidate?
I'm not saying they CANT be biased, I'm saying you do need literally any evidence before just asserting that they are.
-
On the surface but I hardly am going to trust something that is run by disney.
-
-
That's like saying "Rotten Tomatoes" is biased. They're an aggregate.
-
They are biased not because the aggregate but because they limit reviews. Who uses them? People who can form their own opinions of what they like.
-
-
-
-
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if all or almost all major news outlets have some bias towards Trump from up top since they all are the basically the same people.
-
Entertainment news is pretty much all we have left. All of them are geared toward getting views and ratings. I have zero trust these days. I'm hardly ever surprised when some new corruption comes out and how quickly it disappears behind a cacophony of crap that doesn't matter to me in the least. When people constantly stand on poll data that in my 53 years I've never been asked to participate in any poll. I'm pretty sure I am in no way unique so I figure polls are targeted for a result and I'm not a part of the process. I'm just supposed to be a consumer.
-
-
-
128 comments