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  • Many European countries have patriot missiles. They probably not allowed to be exported anywhere without a permission from USA, and if you ignore such an export restriction, you'll end up in trouble when trying to procure arms the next time. Or, might end up. After what Trump's done, it could very well be that this would be considered a force majeure situation. We are defending ourselves from the Russia, and of course we must be allowed to use our AD missiles for that.

    So, we should probably just send to Ukraine all patriot missiles we have got and immediatelly order a lot of NASAMS and IRIS and SAMP platforms and missiles to replace them.

  • If there will be a serious large-scale attack directly against EU as a whole, the politic will will appear.

  • True! Then the company that no longer sells fuel to USA will make less profit when selling fuel to USA! What a punishment!

  • The dashed line means the path is a guess. When the plane stopped sending GPS signals, Flightradar draws a straight dashed line to the direction the plane was heading to when losing the contact, and continues the path on the same speed until the real location of the plane is known again.

    And then the dashed line moves to go to where the plane has actually gone in that time.

    So, the plane hasn't been there, this is just how Flightradar reacts to the Russia's GPS jamming.

  • That's what world leaders are using, though.

    In this case Ukraine gaining support by communicating using a medium used by international diplomacy outweighs the cons of Twitter getting more visibility.

    Politicians should migrate to other platforms as well, but Zelenskyj is about the last person to have to take the first step!

  • If Musk was to tamper with Zelenskyj's visibility on Twitter, it would get noticed. It would probably backlash quite big time.

    Still, it would be awesome if world politicians could please migrate to Bluesky or even Mastodon. Maybe write all messages in two systems until the migration is reasonably ready.

  • Through the whole of 2024 the Russia was advancing faster than anyone expected.

    During that year, they managed to occupy 0.7 % of Ukraine's territory. Which basically rounds to zero.

    the Russia now works mainly without military vehicles. Even if there was a complete collapse of the Ukrainian front, the Russia would be less able to exploit it than they were able to advance in northern parts of Ukraine in spring 2022. I'd say that the best the Russia can do is to advance about ten times as much as in 2024. That is, they could maybe occupy another 7% of Ukraine's territory. USA can of course try helping by lifting the sanctions, but EU won't coöperate with that.

    If USA blocks Ukraine from getting air defence missiles, the Ukrainian electricity distribution will be in deep trouble. Not the end of the world right now, when it's already spring in Ukraine, but the next winter might get seriously bad even if the Russia has already lost by that point.

    If the EU stays supporting Ukraine, it won't lose before the Russia does. But it might be in for its most painful year in this war 😢

    💛💙 Дякую, Україно! 💛💙

  • Selailen läpi Ylen Tuoreimmat uutiset -sivun aina välillä: http://yle.fi/uutiset/tuoreimmat .

  • Possibly, but unlikely. There is a more likely scenario:

    If the Russia wins in Ukraine and manages to take over the whole country, it will be emboldened and will attack another country quite soon. Maybe we will let the Russia have that country as well, after which the Russia will attack once another country. Each time it will be more experienced and stronger. At some point we'll decide we have to stop the Russia, and then we're likely to have WW3.

    Putin is a master of bluff. But a funny thing is that that's the only thing he's good at. And that's the only thing he does. Which means that we know that everything he ever claims is always bluff. He is very afraid of taking actual decisions, and any red lines he claims to have are all just bluff. He won't react to anything.

    The only way to escalate with the Russia is to be inactive. The more inactivity you show, the more the Russia feels safe to attack. The more activity you show against the Russia, the less it dares to act.

  • Thanks!

    Is that kind of utterances why he got reelected? 🙃

  • Anybody should be able to join "her" Matrix space and do that. Including you :)

  • Tanks: that's a good number. The Russia is producing 150 tanks per year, so 11 in just one day is a great amount!

    I'm especially happy about the over 60 artillery pieces – remember, although the Russia isn't getting halfway as much ammunition as it would need for another Bakhmut, its biggest problem is with artillery barrels. And this helps them get rid of their barrels!

    107 vehicles is okay. There's a campaign for destroying Russian rubber-tyred logistics, so this number should be retained constantly at a high level.

    The 1050 for soldiers is dangerously low. The Russian army basically gains a few hundred soldiers for each day where it loses only 1000. Not a catastrophically low amount, but a little bit under the sustainable minimum. Hopefully it will grow again!

  • I don't think the right-leaning EU citizens recognise this as a problem with the right. It's too easy to say this is "an America specific problem" and "We'd never vote in a dumbass such as Trump."

    I honestly think this kind of learning will happen here absolutely not at all.

  • He's actually went and said that?! Where? 😳

  • I think it's mainly about a relative lack of drones. They do have a lot of them, but each attack takes several. Remember that these drones are purpose-built devices varying in size from half a metre to over five metres, not civilian quadcopters.

    Secondarily, you indeed need to locate the logistics bases, and the you need to observe them to know where the target is being stored and figure out what is the target's weakest spot.

    But mostly it's a matter of production capacity. They build enough drones to make an attack, then they attack. And then they need to wait until they have enough for the next attack. It works, because replacing an ammunition depot takes far longer time than replacing the drones used for destroying it.

  • Every day the Russia is not stopped makes a nuclear war more probable. This has been said since 2022, and it remains true.

  • That's precisely what was said in the comment you replied to.

  • The number of soldiers sent this time was estimated by the South Korean intelligence service to be between 1000 and 3000 soldiers. It doesn't make a dent to DPRK's military, and it also doesn't affect the war against humanity very much, because the Russia loses that many soldiers per day or two.

  • They've got tens and tens of this size, but not hundreds and hundreds.

    One such explosion destroys typically ammunition worth a couple of weeks of use. It does hurt the Russian military quite nicely, but it's not something that alone could end the war. It's one of the many things that, when all done, will together win Ukraine the war.

    It forces the Russia to send more meatwaves, which is a good thing: their ability to recruit soldiers has not been able to increase from the level of 25 000 to 35 000 per month, so if mire than 1000 soldiers.are removed from their army per month, their army shrinks.

  • People are telling you that sources that don't have a track record of lying are typically good sources. Beyond that, you can use the FIRMS map for reviewing if an attack has really taken place. It's a system for detecting forest fires by satellites, but it also detects any other bigger fires. You can use it for example to see where the actual front lines are because where a lot of artillery shells explode, there's a "forest fire" on the map. It might not show everything because if there happen to be clouds overneath, the satellites will not recognise the fire. So, it might give you false negatives, but usually not false positives.

  • Maata pitkin matkustavat @sopuli.xyz
    Tuukka R @sopuli.xyz

    Oikein hyvä asia, että tästä tehdään taas kerran uutisia. Asia, joka pitäisi saada kuntoon. Joko junamatkailun tuet samalle tasolle tai sitten lentoliikenteen tuet pois.

    cross-posted from: https://sopuli.xyz/post/2302885

    Ukraine @sopuli.xyz
    Tuukka R @sopuli.xyz

    The text of the Minerals Deal between Ukraine and USA

    The text manages to be quite surprising to me.

    There was talk about USA wanting a share of Ukraine's mineral wealth, but this agreement looks more like an agreement about funding of Ukraine's reconstruction. It says that half of all income that Ukraine will free from the Russia will have to be put in this fund, but if the fund will be used for reconstructing Ukraine, how does this benefit USA?

    Maybe it can be used for building mines for American companies, for them to use for free? Or maybe the fund can be liquidated and the money shared between Ukraine and USA?

    But, my untrained eye cannot really recognize whatever shenanigans there might be hidden in the text.

    Maata pitkin matkustavat @sopuli.xyz
    Tuukka R @sopuli.xyz

    Mitä eteläisessä Ranskassa?

    Pohdiskelen tässä mahdollista matkaa lokakuulle. Pääkohde olisi eteläisessä Italiassa, varmaan ensisijaisesti Sisiliassa, mutta mukana olevaa lasta kiinnostaisi myös Ranska. Voisi käydä katsomassa hieman Pariisia ja mennä sitten yöjunalla joko tuonne Briançoniin tai Välimeren rannikolle päin Marseilleen, Touloniin, Cannesiin ja Nizzaan päin.

    Mutta mitä noissa paikoissa on tehtäväksi ekaluokkalaisen ja ehkä 3½-vuotiaan kanssa?

    Eteenpäin tuolta kai sitten jatkettaisiin yöjunalla Torinosta Reggio di Calabriaan tai ehkä jonnekin vähän lähemmäs. Vaikea suunnitella reissua paikkaan, jossa ei ole ollut.