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2 yr. ago

  • Related to aviation systems, here's a writeup about a complicated incident, where a discrepancy between two "identical" components was a contributing factor:

    It was possible for one channel to detect that the plane was airborne while the other channel did not [...] With one channel in flight mode and the other in ground mode, the SECs believe that there has been a failure of one of the LGCIUs, and they both shut off.

  • The Democratic party's presidential nominee for 2028 will be chosen by a primary election, which will also be in 2028. Until a candidate wins the primary election, there is no nominee. This is important because Newsom is a sack of shit and we have multiple years with which to oppose his run for nomination.

  • There's a part where they quote someone saying "I am not particularly confident [in my p(doom)]" and I'm still remembering getting talked down to about how Actually all subjective uncertainty can be represented as probabilities because Bayesianism and you wouldn't happen to be one of those stupid frequentists right?

  • Hochman correctly deduces that R9PRESENTATIONALism originated in the 18th century, but fails to realize that the roots of this movement actually lie with the Bavarian Illuminati, a secret society which was supposedly suppressed by edict in 1784 but has in fact maintained a shadowy existence influencing politics up to the present day.

  • I thought part of the schtick is that according to the rationalist theory of mind, a simulated version of you suffering is exactly the same as the real you suffering. This relies on their various other philosophical claims about the nature of consciousness, but if you believe this then empathy doesn't have to be a concern.

  • If the growth is superexponential, we make it so that each successive doubling takes 10% less time.

    (From AI 2027, as quoted by titotal.)

    This is an incredibly silly sentence and is certainly enough to determine the output of the entire model on its own. It necessarily implies that the predicted value becomes infinite in a finite amount of time, disregarding almost all other features of how it is calculated.

    To elaborate, suppose we take as our "base model" any function f which has the property that lim_{t → ∞} f(t) = ∞. Now I define the concept of "super-f" function by saying that each subsequent block of "virtual time" as seen by f, takes 10% less "real time" than the last. This will give us a function like g(t) = f(-log(1 - t)), obtained by inverting the exponential rate of convergence of a geometric series. Then g has a vertical asymptote to infinity regardless of what the function f is, simply because we have compressed an infinite amount of "virtual time" into a finite amount of "real time".