And also depends on which side China is on. Their war production dwarfs even the US, and I find it difficult to believe that it will all be spent fighting the US and Taiwan.
There is a very real possibility that these three countries gang up together and divide the world among themselves.
Yes, the ones that do tend to be violent and oppressive, so I understand the criticism.
But many religions are more about searching truth, learning to love each other and have community. And their followers definitely tend to be modest and have a "I don't know enough" mentality.
I definitely see Google/Amazon/Microsoft shedding a huge amount of market cap when the time comes to write-off the 100s of billions they invested the past two years.
They just don't have any feasible path to recouping those investments.
Sure, they'll never go fully broke, that's just a nice word for emphasis.
You don't appreciate that having 200 shares of a fund today, at today's valuation, is better than having 100 shares of that same fund today.
Because that's the point I clearly made, which you ignored and constructed some kind of straw man on which you had your little Don Quixote party on.
And if you really want to understand the philosophy, the point is to take profits prudently and buy bargains when they present themselves. And that's very much possible without exactly timing the market.
I have never sold at the top and never bought at the bottom. I have no crystal ball to time the market, but I have made a lot of profit buying low and selling high.
The dumb money are those pouring hundreds of billions into the AI hype. This is .com bubble on steroids.
And sure, AI obviously is becoming an important market, but it will not be the current leaders who will dominate the tech. Like the internet, it's just too easy to catch up for competitors. Pouring $100B into AI today will only mean you lose out to the $1B startup in 2 years. The incumbents will go broke.
The USA is on a path to become way more hostile than China.
Trump supports Russia even more than China does. And it's quite likely that he actually has a secret alliance with the CCP. It just doesn't make sense that someone could be a friend of Putin and enemy of the CCP.
Yes, obviously Japan and Australia share our values.
But we really don't want to end up in a situation where we stand against USA+Russia+China.
You and the people upvoting you are naively optimistic to think the old world order will return.
It really is time to see reality and prepare for the worst
Timing the exact top and bottom is impossible, but you can always sell at an all-time high and buy at a 52 week low.
Personally, I find it more effective for myself if I frame it in terms of "owning the most shares" instead of "making the most dollars".
If I started with 100 shares and now have 200 shares, I consider that a win, even if the 200 shares together are worth less than the 100 shares were at one time.
I actually agree with you, they definitely have the edge, but I still am skeptical that they will be able to maintain their valuation.
I just don't see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.
Most people will only use free AI and companies will mostly buy cheap AI.
Running Deepseek locally is basically free. That's the competition.