@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
OK, "dude".
You sure explained the logical flaws to me.
Thank you for the discussion.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
Economic growth is predicated on exploitation and ignoring externalities.
The biggest of which is obviously depletion of non-renewable natural resources, which includes not only fossil fuels, but also copper, aluminum, chromium, nickel, cobalt, etc.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
I appreciate all the references.
They all count externalities though. The producers (and most consumers) don't pay for externalities in our current economic system. That's not the world we live in.
So unless you're suggesting to overthrow #capitalism I don't understand how that argument helps the point you are trying to make.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
"embedded emissions for manufactured products are almost always small compared to direct emissions from their use"
This can't be right, it defies common sense. Most products' emissions come from their manufacturing, not use. In fact, most products don't emit GHGs at all: not my chair, not my pillow, not my carpet, not the roof over my head. Even EVs and PVs take years to pay back their manufacturing emissions.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
That's the thing though: in a green growth scenario it is not enough for a solution to merely *exist*. It must also be cheaper and being able to be deployed worldwide very fast and without hindering economic growth in the process. If any of these conditions are not met, either emissions will keep going up or growth will stop.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
"almost all embedded emissions come from energy use"
That's true if by "almost all" you mean 73%.
Even if you remove *all* emissions from energy, allow the economy to double in the next 30 years and you'll still be left with half the emissions that you started with. Not the place we want to be.
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
I see. By that definition hydrogen produced by steam methane reforming or biofuels are also "zero emissions".
How do you know that the embedded emissions are a transient phenomenon? Has a single EV, solar PV or battery been produced without any use of fossil fuels, even in a lab setting as a proof-of-concept?
@jgkoomey @coffee2Di4 @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
What are "the many ways to power modern tech with zero emissions"? Can you list some examples?
@urlyman @jgkoomey @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
As William Ophuls described it, we sure are electrifying the Titanic though!
😉
@urlyman @jgkoomey @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
We agree then: we should fight for the conservation of the biosphere, and that should be our focus. Preserving GDP growth is what's killing us, and it should be abandoned as a goal.
In my view it's already clear what path we're on. Having hope for a "green growth" future requires, as Jonathan said, ignoring history.
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
In other words, absolute decoupling is a statement of faith that requires ignoring all examples from history in a belief that humanity will invent a replicator from Star Trek.
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
Absolute decoupling would mean that all sectors of the economy that grow would be fully decarbonized, i.e. growth in the economy would not result in any additional emissions.
Given how our economy looks today (as explained above) and how little time our civilization has left (because of both effects of #ClimateChange and resource depletion) it seems quite implausible that absolute decoupling is a viable way forward.
5/5
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
It's also worth noting that currently all nations follow a recipe for development through industrialization based on fossil fuels. There is not a single country on a "green" path. That means fossil inertia in the system is very high.
On top of that, all our "green" technologies currently require input of fossil fuels in their prodution processes. That includes #solar panels, #wind turbines, hydroelectric dams, EVs, etc.
4/5
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
As an example, global meat production doubled in the last 30 years. If a new method of factory farming is invented that cuts methane emissions by 10%, for it to actually reduce emissions it would need to be adopted on every farm in the world in less than 3 years.
After which point we'd need another such invention to keep pace with the economic growth.
3/5
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
Note that for any given efficiency improvement to have the desired effect of reducing emissions it not only must be invented, but it also must be distributed across the world, again at a pace greater than overall economic growth.
2/5
@jgkoomey @urlyman @FantasticalEconomics @ajsadauskas @green
Let's make sure we're on the same page here. What we're interested in is for the emissions to start dropping. What #decoupling suggests is that this can be achieved with the economy still growing.
Achieving dropping emissions via relative decoupling could be done by the pace of efficiency improvements continuously outpacing economic growth.
1/5
@jgkoomey @urlyman @ajsadauskas @green
New technologies can bring efficiency improvements, but can also bring new uses for resources, and that ultimately translates to more demand. Recent decades are the best proof of that. Even though everything is more efficient now, our material footprint and environmental degradation is at its peak as well.
@jgkoomey @urlyman @ajsadauskas @green
Relative decoupling doesn't really matter. The fact that emissions rise at a pace slower than GDP is not good enough. We need emissions to start dropping, like yesterday.
AFAIK there is no evidence whatsoever of absolute decoupling happening globally, whether we're talking about CO2 or material footprint (which has been accelerating, in fact).
Humans are a part of nature. The idea that we can decouple our economy from environmental impacts is absurd.
@urlyman @jgkoomey @ajsadauskas @green
The uncomfortable truth is that national accounting like that can make western countries feel good about themselves, but all it does is put colonial relations on display.
The two sobering graphs worth looking at are humanity's material footprint: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2019/goal-12/ and global emissions: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-ghg-emissions?tab=chart&stackMode=relative&time=2000..2021&country=~OWID_WRL
All lines go up.
@urlyman @jgkoomey @ajsadauskas @green
Do any of these decoupling claims hold when looking at the global economic system as a whole?
While these statistics claim that they account for trade it is a very theoretical number. Would the emissions be the same if Ireland had to produce everything it imports locally? Just imagine that. Of course they would be much higher.