George Galloway has furiously hung up on LBC's Lewis Goodall after he was asked to explain why he said gay relationships are neither the 'norm' nor 'equal'.
Westminster Voting Intention:
🌹 LAB: 50% (+4) 🌳 CON: 25% (-4) 🔶 LDM: 9% (-3) 🌍 GRN: 7% (+2) ➡️ RFM: 4% (=) 🎗️ SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 17-21 Aug. Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.
Flavible:
Party | Pred % |Pred Seats ----|----|----| CON 🌳 | 25.0% | 130 LAB 🌹 | 50.0% | 427 LD 🔶 | 9.0% | 35 REFUK ➡️ | 4.0% | 0 Green 🌍 | 7.0% | 1 SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 31 PC 💮| 1% | 4
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
Party | 2019 Votes| 2019 Seats| Pred Votes| Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----| CON 🌳| 44.7% | 376 | 25.0% | 0 | 297 | -297 | 79 LAB 🌹| 33.0% | 197 | 50.0% | 330 | 0 | +330 | 527 LIB 🔶| 11.8% | 8 | 9% | 11 | 2 | +9 | 17 Reform ➡️| 2.1% | 0 | 4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 Green 🌍| 2.8% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 SNP 🎗️| 4.0% | 48 | 3.1% | 0 | 44 | -44 | 4 PlaidC 💮| 0.5% | 2 | 0.4% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 Other ⬜️| 1.1% | 0 | 1.1% | 1| 0 | +1 | 1 N.Ire ⬜️| - | 18 | - | 0 | 0| +0| 18
Scotland EC Break-Down (👀)
Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP ---|----|----|----|----|----| 15% | 45%| 4%| 1%| 3%| 31%
AFAIK that's one half of the story, but the other is something quite technical and cool in zoology that wasn't foreseen by ecologists at the time wolves were eradicated.
The wolves being removed caused something called meso-predator release, whereby the coyote numbers in the Yellowstone surged because of the cross over in prey species and lack of competition for that prey. BUT, that meant species not shared with wolves had their numbers heavily reduced by the increase in coyotes, mainly beavers.
When beaver numbers plummeted so did dams along the Yellowstone, and the the water level of the river went down and I think sped up, and that reduced areas for all animals and vegetative growth along the whole river. Reintroducing wolves caused coyote numbers to stabilise back at regular levels, beaver numbers did the same and the river stared to go back normal causing a huge bounce back across the board. Including reducing deer numbers back as coyotes don't hunt them so they did the opposite of beavers when wolves were removed for the same reason.... Meso-predator release but in the opposite direction.
Decision to oust Covid rule-breaking MP from Scottish seat of Rutherglen and West Hamilton prompts contest
I think the ULEZ chat is expectation management from Labour, for if they win by less than they would have hoped to be convincing and to drive a narrative, especially if Selby is a nail biter. But then 1000 seats was expectation management by the tories inthe local elections and look how that went
If you're interested:
It does depend on how much people just 'go labour' because thats the 'not tory' vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can't actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won't really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.
I haven't played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting 'not tory'. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.
It's all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that's also a guess and there's no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that's always fun to see.
Oh I don't dare underestimate the change in public opinions when it's election time and suddenly their vote is close and they have to think. I know it happened for Labour in 2017 and a bit in 2019, but it can happen either way.
Don't get me wrong, Labour could coast into a comfy majority the way things are looking atm.
And those poor Lib Dems, I do think they are being underestimated by the models, but it doesn't look amazing for them eh.
I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers...this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn't have anything glaring out at me that's horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible's more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.
This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn't the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn't like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.
Dare we start to hope?
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 24% (-4)
Lab 48% (+2)
Lib Dem 11% (+2)
Other 17% (-1)
Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)
Flavible:
Party | Pred % |Pred Seats ----|----|----| CON 🌳 | 24.0% | 119 LAB 🌹 | 48.0% | 425 LD 🔶 | 11.0% | 47 REFUK ➡️ | 6.0% | 0 Green 🌍 | 5.0% | 1 SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 32 PC 💮| 1% | 4
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
Party | 2019 Votes| 2019 Seats| Pred Votes| Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----| CON 🌳| 44.7% | 376 | 24.0% | 0 | 309 | -309| 67 LAB 🌹| 33.0% | 197 | 48.0% | 320 | 0 | +320| 517 LIB 🔶| 11.8% | 8 | 11% | 13 | 0 | +13| 21 Reform ➡️| 2.1% | 0 | 6% | 0| 0| +0| 0 Green 🌍| 2.8% | 1 | 5% | 0| 0| +0| 1 SNP 🎗️| 4.0% | 48 | 3.3% | 4| 29| -25| 23 PlaidC 💮| 0.5% | 2 | 0.5% | 1| 1| +0| 2 Other ⬜️| 1.1% | 0 | 2.2% | 1| 0| +1| 1 N.Ire ⬜️| - | 18 | - | 0 | 0| +0| 18
Scotland EC Break-Down
Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP ---|----|----|----|----|----| 12% | 34%| 9%| 2%| 9%| 34%
PrincipleFish
Exclusive: As results show 35% slowing in cognitive decline, health leaders say swift decisions crucial
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 46% (+1) CON: 28% (-2) LDM: 12% (+1) REF: 4% (+1) GRN: 3% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @Survation , On 7-9 July, Changes w/ 30 June-2 July.
Flavible:
Party | Pred % |Pred Seats ----|----|----| CON 🌳 | 28.0% | 173 LAB 🌹 | 46.0% | 380 LD 🔶 | 12.0% | 39 REFUK ➡️ | 4.0% | 0 Green 🌍 | 3.0% | 1 SNP 🎗️ | 3% | 32 PC 💮| 0.5% | 3
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
Party | 2019 Votes| 2019 Seats| Pred Votes| Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----| CON 🌳| 44.7% | 376 | 28.0% | 0 | 242 | -242| 134 LAB 🌹| 33.0% | 197 | 46.0% | 256 | 0 | +256| 453 LIB 🔶| 11.8% | 8 | 12% | 11 | 0 | +11| 19 Reform ➡️| 2.1% | 0 | 4% | 0| 0| +0| 0 Green 🌍| 2.8% | 1 | 3% | 0| 0| +0| 1 SNP 🎗️| 4.0% | 48 | 2.3% | 0| 47| -47| 1 PlaidC 💮| 0.5% | 2 | 0.4% | 1| 1| +0| 2 Other ⬜️| 1.1% | 0 | 4.2% | 22| 0| +22| 22* N.Ire ⬜️| - | 18 | - | 0 | 0| +0| 18
*Believe this is mostly SNP for new seats in Scotland but EC had a bit of a brain fart because they have no official candidates yet do defaulted to 'Other'.
Scotland EC Break-Down
Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP ---|----|----|----|----|----| 14% | 24%| 10%| 0%| 0%| 24%
PrincipleFish
This whole thing is fascinating not for the whole Huw Edwards bit, but for the all the editorial decisions in The Sun. I mean, what were they thinking?
The Met Police says detectives have have determined there is no information to indicate that a criminal offence has been committed.
Vicky Flind, the wife of news reader Huw Edwards, has named him as the BBC presenter facing allegations over payments for sexually explicit images in a statement issued on his behalf.
🚨 Latest poll for @ObserverUK. Labour lead at 15 points.
Labour: 43% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+3)
Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 6% (-1)
Reform UK: 8% (+1)
(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 25% (+1)
Lab 48% (+1)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Other 17% (+1)
Fieldwork: 29th June - 3rd July 2023 Sample: 1,507 GB adults (Changes from 23rd - 26th June 2023)