Putain -_- Via : https://piaille.fr/@ezrine/113418454176110077

Ah ouais, joli score 😍 Via : https://piaille.fr/@marmotte84/113414554655645145

La France vous attend! Le peuple a besoin de vous! Vous savez ce que les (vrais) français veulent!

Le destin vous a donné rendez-vous. Saisissez-le!

nom interdit : Révolution

Oh, boy -_- \-\-\- Via : https://piaille.fr/@falphonso/113401998135272299

The man who is betting more than $30 million on a Donald Trump victory wants you to know that he isn’t trying to manipulate the U.S. election.

“My intent is just making money,” the man, who called himself Théo, said during a Zoom call with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He described himself as a Frenchman who had previously lived in the U.S. and worked as a trader for banks.

Théo’s huge wagers on Polymarket—a prediction market that isn’t open to Americans—drew broad attention last month after the Journal reported that four accounts on the platform had been systematically purchasing wagers on a Trump victory. The bets lifted Trump’s odds of beating Vice President Kamala Harris, as shown on Polymarket. Blockchain data showed that the accounts were all funded by the same crypto exchange, fueling debate about the motives of the “Trump whale” behind them.

Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the Trump whale as part of an investigation into the wagers. The company described the person behind the bets as a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial-services background. The shadow of former President Donald Trump is projected on a U.S. flag as he attends a rally in Green Bay, Wis. Photo: brendan mcdermid/Reuters

“Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” Polymarket said in a statement.

The details in Polymarket’s statement lined up with how Théo described himself. He confirmed that he had spoken to a member of Polymarket’s legal and compliance team.

Election watchers are poring over any and all data in an effort to predict the outcome of one of the most contentious—and, seemingly, close—U.S. presidential elections on record. Prediction markets that allow people to place bets on a variety of potential events have emerged as one possible way to forecast election winners. Historical research suggests that, more often than not, the presidential candidate with the best odds in betting markets before Election Day goes on to take the White House.

Yet the emergence of the Trump whale exposes the limits of today’s prediction markets: Even though volumes have surged on Polymarket this year, it is still small enough for one wealthy, opinionated individual to push prices around with a multimillion-dollar bet.

Théo emailed the Journal after the publication of an Oct. 18 article about his wagers. To prove that he was behind the Polymarket wagers, the Journal asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce that she is pregnant in 2024—one of the many small, nonpolitical wagers available on the platform. Minutes later, Polymarket’s website showed that one of the four accounts, Theo4, had placed a small bet on Swift’s pregnancy.

During the Zoom call, Théo wore a gray Nike sweater and sported a short, neatly trimmed beard. Speaking English with a slight accent, he said he had made his bets after concluding that polls were underestimating Trump’s support. He denied speculation that his wagers were aimed at creating a sense of momentum for Trump.

Théo declined to give his real name, and the Journal wasn’t able to confirm all the elements of his story. Although Théo said he was funding the bets with his own money, it couldn’t be determined whether this is true. Nor could the Journal rule out links between Théo and any political organization or Trump allies.

“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo wrote in his initial email.

Théo said he didn’t want to share his name because his own friends and children don’t know the extent of his wealth, and he doesn’t want them to know about his Trump bet. He described himself as a veteran financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars on high-conviction trades. But political betting was new for him, Théo said.

Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the “shy Trump voter effect”—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

“I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,” Théo said. Asked about changes that pollsters had made in their methodologies in an attempt to fix the problems of 2016 and 2020, Théo was dismissive, saying he had “not seen anything substantial.”

Théo sent dozens of emails to the Journal reporter over a two-week period. In many of them, he criticized polls from mainstream-media outlets that he saw as skewed in favor of Harris. On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates.

Théo said he was caught by surprise when his trades drew public attention. He started quietly in August by betting several million dollars on Trump, using an account with the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris had roughly even chances on Polymarket.

Théo spread out his wagers over multiple days and weeks to avoid causing a price spike. Still, as his bets grew, Théo noticed other traders were backing away from quoting prices when Fredi9999 was buying. That made it harder for Théo to get attractive prices. He created the other three accounts in September and October to obscure his purchasing, Théo said.

Now, Théo could get a payday of more than $80 million-—more than double his investment—if all of his expectations of a sweeping Trump victory come true. Besides his main wager on Trump winning the Electoral College, Théo has bet millions more on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario that many political observers consider unlikely—and on Trump winning individual swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins, Théo could lose most or all of his $30 million, which he described as the majority of his available liquid assets.

He is such a big trader on Polymarket that he is effectively stuck, unable to exit his wagers without crashing the market. The four “Trump whale” accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts on Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of the contracts on Trump winning the popular vote, according to data provider Polymarket Analytics.

Théo admitted feeling nervous. He voiced confidence that Trump would win—assessing his odds of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but fretted that his bets could be thrown off by an unexpected last-minute news development.

“A surprise can always occur,” Théo said.

Anglais : https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/11/01/thousands-go-to-fake-ai-invented-dublin-halloween-parade

La police a dû intervenir pour disperser les gens.

https://www.ohchr.org/fr/press-releases/2024/10/france-hijab-bans-sports-are-discriminatory-and-must-be-reversed-say-experts

T'as une carte UGC ? Arrête.

One on one, devant tout le monde. Viens j't'apprends l'histoire. \-\-\- Via : https://piaille.fr/@Dalipas/113403711573215727

> Selon une note du ministère de la Justice du 30 novembre 2023, « En ce qui concerne les agressions sexuelles commises par des auteurs majeurs, une peine d’emprisonnement en tout ou partie ferme a été prononcée dans 49 % des cas. Le quantum médian ferme se situe à un an et demi. Une peine d’emprisonnement avec sursis total a été prononcée près d’une fois sur deux (48 %) ». Quand les plaintes débouchent sur un procès, les juges prononcent donc des peines en général supérieures à ce qui a été infligé à Bedos en première instance. Malheureusement, elles aboutissent en réalité très rarement, et c’est une impunité généralisée qui règne en France pour les faits d’agression sexuelle et de viol, dans toutes les classes sociales. Seulement 0,6 % des viols ou tentatives de viol auraient donné lieu à une condamnation en 2020.

> Alors pourquoi cette peine serait soi-disant trop lourde ? Parce qu’il s’agit de Nicolas Bedos, « fils de l’immense Guy Bedos », comme se sent obligé de le souligner Voici. Les bourgeois comme Nicolas Bedos et ses amis qui le défendent (très nombreux selon sa femme), se croient au-dessus des lois. Avant les procès, ils critiquent le soi-disant « tribunal médiatique » et répètent à l’envie qu’il faut attendre que « la justice fasse son travail ». Quand elle tente de le faire, le verdict ne leur convient pas si elle n’acquitte pas les coupables. La vérité, c’est que les bourgeois ne peuvent accepter que l’un des leurs soit condamné.

> Bedos vit dans une abstraction qui ignore la réalité des violences qu’il inflige. Il est flagrant que dans sa défense, dont de larges extraits sont publiés par Mediapart, il fasse beaucoup référence au cinéma.

Qu'en pensez-vous ?

Putain, on n'est pas dans la merde -_- ––– Via : https://piaille.fr/@usul/113400718864720329

>La spintronique ? c’est une nouvelle discipline qui apparaît dans les années 1980 dans les travaux de quelques physiciens théoriciens. « Mais elle prendra véritablement son essor en 1988 grâce à une découverte extraordinaire, qui a valu en 2007 le prix Nobel de physique à ses deux auteurs, Albert Fert en France et Peter Grünberg en Allemagne, indique Hélène Fischer. Cette découverte, pour le dire très simplement, c’est celle d’un nouveau matériau capable, grâce à sa structure interne, d’avoir une influence sur le courant électrique à l’échelle nanométrique, c’est-à-dire à l’échelle du millionième de millimètre ! »

...

>À l’instar de la séculaire électronique, les applications de la spintronique s’annoncent, elles aussi, larges dans les années à venir. Les propriétés quantiques du spin continuent, aujourd’hui encore, d’inspirer les scientifiques.

...

>Pour [L'historien] Pierre-Éric Mounier-Kuhn, la spintronique « est certes une innovation de rupture. Mais ce n’est pas, à proprement parler, un changement de paradigme, dans la mesure où l’on reste dans la physique de l’atome ». Il ajoute : « Qui plus est, la trajectoire technico-économique dans laquelle s’inscrit la spintronique est déjà très ancienne, c’est celle du techno-capitalisme, dans lequel tout est mis en œuvre pour trouver des solutions avant tout techniques à des problèmes sociaux et environnementaux, pour peu qu’elles soient viables économiquement. »

L'incroyable dérive d'Aurélie B., l'ancienne trésorière de Kiabi soupçonnée d'avoir détourné 100 millions d'euros

«Êtes-vous enceinte ?» : le gouvernement chinois lance une campagne de démarchage

> Un rapport du ministère de l’intérieur publié en catimini, lundi 28 octobre, confirme les révélations de Disclose sur l’utilisation illégale par la police et la gendarmerie du logiciel Briefcam, entre 2015 et 2023. Cet outil qui permet la reconnaissance faciale a été désactivé juste après notre enquête. Une décision qui met fin, au moins temporairement, à l’une des plus graves atteintes à la vie privée en France ces dernières années.

OK, la technique casse pas des briques, mais sentir sa voix portée, c’est bon pour l’égo.

Je crois que j'ai perdu une heure. Ça a du arriver ce matin parce qu'hier, je suis sûr que l'avais encore. Si quelqu'un la trouve, merci de me la laisser a cette adresse : 39224 Waterview Dr Big Bear Lake CA 92315 USA

Si je ne suis pas là, vous pouvez la donner à mon fils.

MAIS C'ÉTAIT SÛR !! C'ÉTAIT SÛR !!!

Dommage Éliane. \-\-\- Via : https://piaille.fr/@lemonde/113386493028057818