Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast - Nate Silver's updated version of the old 538 model
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast - Nate Silver's updated version of the old 538 model
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
Just as a heads up, nate silver joined a "prediction market" board for a company that is heavily funded by Peter Thiel.
He now makes his money from far right billionaires who hate democracy and love Trump/Vance.
I haven't read the article yet so I say this without knowing which way they are predicting, but just keep the above in mind.
14Fuck Thiel and all, but Founders Fund invests in a slew of stuff that they think will make them money.
Silver has always been fairly left of center. Anyone that’s listened to his podcasts over the past elections knows that, he wants his work to be neutral, but he’s not into the maga shit.
Silver has always been curious to see if betting markets could more accurately predict election outcomes. I’m not surprised to see him join that company. It’s basically an opportunity for him to explore something he has been curious about for decades.
But yeah, unfortunately, he’s also helping to make a shitty person richer.
3RFK Jr used to be left of center, but then he got bought by the far right heir to the Mellon fortune.
Silver may not be in the same place in his life, but it makes him deeply suspect, regardless of how "interests just aligned."
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I saw the headline and almost expected my phone to start blaring to let me know that there was a missing elderly person last seen in a red Toyota Prius heading east on I94.
3Does anyone have access to the actual model output?
1What specifically are you looking for? They show the studies that are used an input into the model, but the model that weights the input is private IP.
Like with 538, you see the input and percentages out, but not how the sausage is made.
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