Albanese in trouble as polling shows Dutton most likely to be next PM
The ABC can reveal the results of YouGov's latest MRP model, which finds the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats if an election was held today.
Jesus fucking Christ, are we all learning nothing from what's happening in the US right now???
Apparently not, sadly. I cannot believe people cannot see the parallels, but then the average Aussie probably doesn't pay any attention to US politics and the Australian coverage (even from the ABC) is not really explaining just how bad things are.
Yes, what were learning is that we'lll follow the US down the highway of oblivion, its what voters want apparently.
What I'd like to see is we petition the EU to join, and I'd like to see Canada and NZ do the same and any other nation thats wants to we need to be in world thats closer, not more blacanised. The US and UK can go off and do their own thing separately.
Fuck the US they've gone from bad (Regan) to worse (Trump)
Labor sure isn't
Ugh, this feels just like the Voice polling a slow moving car crash.
Will Albanese ever show he's a PM for Australia, and not just a political manager?
I suppose its not surprising the only strategy thats worked in the last few years is small target.
Maybe villainise Dutton, go after him with everything, full negative campaign, make it about Dutton. The guy is dislikeable bash it every chance they get,
Q - What is your plan for this,
A - Our plan is in our policy documents, but wheres Dutton? What's this grand plan he promises?
Instant pivots to Dutton, link him to Rinehardt, and Palmer everytime mining or wealth inequality, or housing is brought up.
I duno what can be done tbh, I really don't, as someone else said:
What this says to me... The ALP can go to an election with good policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with bad policy and lose. The ALP can go to an election with no policy and lose. The sole exception being if the media decide that they need a change and the ALP are going to give them sweet treats.
Yep, this is true. It comes down to the media in this country.
Which makes me pose the question, where the fuck are Labor and the unions on opening or supporting friendly media?
Like, sure the super industry have the New Daily for what thats worth, but arguably Turnbull has done more for media balance in this country than anyone on the "Left" has by being friendly to Guardian coming over here.
The idea that Murdoch still has a lock on country broadcasting along with ABC, after three years of Labor is laughable. They should have been white anting that gift of a contract since day one.
I duno what can be done tbh, I really don’t
Informing voters, for starters. Break free of the two-party false dichotomy if you realise the ALP are a lost cause, don't believe you are forced to defend them in order to critique the coalition.
I know this is far easier said than done, but there are so many ways to do this which an individual (or better, group of friends/co-workers) like you and me can even casually do this.
idk that sounds a lot like a “not the other guy” campaign, and i think we’ve pretty conclusively proven that doesn’t work for us
sure, dutton is unlikeable and that should be pointed out at every turn, but as a a contrast to your good policy
Not many incumbents have survived the post covid landscape, so this doesn’t come as a huge surprise. Given this knowledge I expected labour to go out swinging, and take a chance on a more radical policy platform. Unfortunately, they seem to water down everything to appease everyone and it begins to feel like a status quo platform. Exactly the opposite kind of message for an electorate with an ever diminishing standard of living, desperate to try everything (even siding with far right populist policy) to dig themselves out.
Yea, a genuinely interesting take on Trump’s win was that single term Govts are the new normal.
As to why, that’s likely a whole discussion, but some hand wavy accelerationism shit show captures the energy sufficiently I’d say.
I’m not following international politics, but I’ve recently heard of the situation in Germany, and that seems on track to follow the same trend.
Canada too. It's very close in polling for their upcoming election.
The ALP have been the pawl of the L/NP Overton ratchet for at least half a century.
The most unforgivable things Albanese has done is make this country forget how catastrophic Morrison was, and elevate Dutton into a viable candidate.
To better illustrate: Rewarding Peter by being the pawl.
You are free to vote for the Socialist Alliance if you want but they aren't winning any seats. You can vote for the Greens but they won't do much better. Whether you like it or not the ALP were founded by Australian workers to give them a political voice and they have done that for over 120 years and delivered some huge wins. They are the reason we have a public health system, pensions, super, minimum wage, somewhat decent working conditions etc.
I have no idea why someone who wants politics to move to the left would shit on the ALP who are hanging in there as best as they can while the world is turning to shit. The people deserting the ALP aren't going to the left. Those that are will come back on preferences. There isn't a huge downside to losing primary vote to parties on your side of politics. Every election a bunch of parties spring up to hoover up disaffected coalition voters and redirect their vote back to the coalition. Nobody is being blocked. You can't sell your message to the Australian people and that isn't Labor's fault. They clearly have the same problems.
It's sad, to see.
Feels like Albo lost all political courage and has been too scared to promote a positive vision for the country.
Unwilling to do more than hold onto the working family dad persona.
Could increase aid and resources for Ukraine, actually take a strong attitude to Trump tariff bs by putting tariffs on Tesla, pulling back from AUKUS or strong-arm via pine gap.
But why do anything that could improve the spineless image.
Last time Labor fucked up governing this hard we lost fttp NBN.
They act the way they do because they get attacked if they don't. They don't want to upset the mining lobby, property developers, Murdoch press who will fund huge campaigns against them. Musk runs twitter which has influence and can slip people like Joe Rogan money to tell his listeners that Labor is attacking their rights or some bullshit. Pissing of Trump isnt smart as his executive power is unchecked and he can impose petty revenge tariffs that hurt our economy and workers.
Don't think the ALP are timid because they are weak or unimaginative. They tread a fine line between being tolerated by powerful elites who can toss them out and implementing an agenda that benefits all Australians.
Kevin Bonham predicts 51 to 49 going to the L-NP (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/). Based on Antony Green's Swingometer and the 2022 preference flows that means about 74 seats to the L-NP with a 0.5% swing to them (https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/calculator). That is minority government though. They need 76 seats to form government, so it would be a deal with two independents. Which ones? If you can remember the minority government Gillard successfully ran, it meant they were under continual attack by Abbott. But it also means the ALP could form minority government, given they would have 71 seats under that scenario, and would need five independents to form government. I wonder if they would be able to pull that off -- possibly more likely than the L-NP picking up two independents for a stable government, especially with Dutton in power. The so called Teal independents would want nothing to do with him, neither the Greens.
Best case scenario frankly is minority govt with greens holding balance of power. Much more chance of getting better legislation passed when greens have to be listened to.
Agreed.
Don't like this trend. I'm resigned to the fact that an ALP majority is very unlikely but I'm hoping LNP stay well below 76 seats. Independents will have a huge bearing on this election.
Also, I had big fears about Bill Shorten and his lack of charisma in 2019, so seeing Dutton do so well in polls is a huge head scratcher. Politics aside he does not present as a leader at all.