There is no avoiding 1.5c — achieving it is predicated on lies; carbon offsets (accounting trick to continue emissions) and carbon capture (won't be viable for at least 50+ years, after we're already at 2-4c).
The oligarchy, and their corporations, are LYING to you so they can continue profiteering all the way up until the shit hits the fan. If they were honest about the reality of the situation, they'd have to genuinely worry about guillotines. Right now we need to focus on avoiding 3c, because 2c is also likely unavoidable, even if we were spending triple on decarbonisation than we are right now.
All renewables to date have only dampened emissions from humanities increasing energy consumption. We've still emitted 25% of all CO2 since the year 2000, and are still emitting the most in history per annum. If we continue at the current peak, we'll add another 25% in 15 years. There are still 700+ million ICE cars on the road, still thousands of diesel container ships emitting more than all those cars combined; still tens of thousands of coal, gas, and oil power plants. All of that can't simply be "replaced". It will take dozens of trillions in capital across decades, and we'll have to consume significantly more energy to mine and manufacture all the renewable tech to replace them — energy that will still mostly come from fossil fuels.
We are boned and Earth is going to ice-age us, eventually. After raising the sea level and flooding many inhabitated areas, turning arable land into desert while our weather system takes a dive.
Winter hasn't even properly set in where I live, and it's basically November. It's still 13c outside...
If we don't start turning things around rapidly, global warming is going to be saying to WW2: "You think YOU are the master of death, despair, suffering, and destruction? Hold my beer and watch this!"
I'm slightly more optimistic now than I have been. I recently learned that economic growth will be stalled soon. I think that the big money interests will demand that growth continue, which necessitates mitigating the climate crisis effects if not the cause.
It's still going to be a horrifically shitty time for 99.9% of humanity, but I don't think we're going extinct.
What we really need is a widely recognized and transparent organization to lead the effort. Like the red cross for blood donations. I've looked at various groups, but they tend to be opaque regarding funding. The transparency is vital because without it, we could be easily misled into supporting a group that is created by say oil companies designed to have us chasing red herrings.
Covid convinced me that mass deaths wont change peoples minds. Folks only care if THEY are currently dying. Like right in this moment. In fact plenty of people will use their dying breath to state climate change isnt real. Only then will they take a deep breath of sea water.
You know, i used to think that too. Then Covid happened and it turned out that even more americans dying every few days than did during 9/11 from an easily preventable disease still saw outright denial and anger at anyone who took even the simplest and smallest of precautions.
Yup. I'm fairly convinced that once things do get bad enough, those same people will do the same thing they did during the early times of COVID, ie. lash out violently at anyone trying to fix the situation and even blame the "liberals" for creating it.
I doubt they'll literally ever be able to adjust to the idea that maybe all this shit that's going on is humanity's fault, not to mention that at this point they're the ones most staunchly against doing anything to fix the situation so they bear even more resposibilty. Or they should bear more at any rate, they just won't – it'll be easier to murder leftists and concentrate on making everything worse so they'll have even more excuses to murder us.
There's no stopping this trend without nuclear energy. Renewable are great, but they can replace nuclear in 100 years. We need nuclear power now to replace greenhouse gas polluting power plants.
People are deploying much more renewables than nuclear because they're cheaper for the first ~80% of decarbonization. Nuclear might get used for the last 20% if it can be done more cheaply than large amounts of storage.
Sadly, no matter what you call it... those in power to make changes, won't. Cataclysmic events are cresting the horizon. Much sooner than people realize.
Unfortunately, I don't see this changing. Unfortunately, too many people feel the need to peacock, and act like dickheads simply to try to stand out.
And a lot of those dickheads also chose to not pay attention during high school, so they overcompensate for making a lot of noise about their "evidence", which isn't based on critical thinking.