2w ago

'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.

www.commondreams.org 'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60% | Common Dreams

Stocks are plummeting and JPMorgan warns of a 60% risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs.

"The president single-handedly wiped out Americans' retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty."

Business @lemmy.world

'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%

www.commondreams.org /news/trump-tariffs-recession

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If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
- The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
  But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market's volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
  
  Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.
- Forex? If you have USD, you could change it to EUR for example. You could also buy bonds or crypto or whatever, though US bonds might be falling too.
  Personally I just keep all my money in funds and robo-advisors. This way there's someone whose job it is to allocate the money, and they hear the news and can act faster than you.
  
  Are you certain that the samething isn't going to happen to foreign currencies? I feel like the U.S. enters recession, the global economy enters recession.
  Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
  
  Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
  China is trying. I feel like at least some industries there would be fine even if the US collapses.
  
  Considering just how massive China is, they probably have the best shot at a truly independent "internal world" economy
  
  The rest of the world is hopefully coming together a bit and doing trade without the US.
  
  This is against what crypto bros are saying, but from what I see that whenever stock is crashing so is Bitcoin.
  
  Btc is range bound same as it’s been for months now if looking at the euro or cad. Hardly a crash but some folks are cashing out for sure, driving prices down.
  
  That’s the thing here. Bitcoin is holding up fairly well so far
  If it can prove that it returns better gains than stocks AND weathers downturns better than stocks. Well…
- There's a 'Recession this year?' market on kalshi that is somehow also giving about 60% odds. I'm feeling good about my $20 bet.
- I think the reason it's not 100% is that Trump could say "lol jk guys I'm not actually going to destroy the world economy to own the libs" or Congress could theoretically stop it (lol) but yeah I think it's probably optimistic because even if the tariffs don't go into effect the chaos caused by them is already happening. I work in chemical manufacturing and the outlook seems very bleak, but most of my coworkers are Trumpists so they're just in denial about how bad it's going to be while management is tiptoeing around the fact that they're already laying people off because of Trump's expected antics.
- Traditional wisdom says bonds go up when stocks go down, but I don't even trust T bills right now. Those are the most reliable security there is. Well, were.

161 comments