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c/cfb Week 11 Poll

forms.gle c/cfb poll

Make sure that you haven't repeated any teams! Honor system 1 ballot per voter per week (I don't want to collect email addresses to limit it on my end)

A wild and wacky week last week. One with ballot implications for sure

17
17 comments

  • My ballot. Computer poll.

    A clear top 2 have emerged, and I find it really interesting that spots 3 through 12 are all quite close so that order is liable to shake up in these last few weeks. Keep in mind Notre Dame and USC have played an extra game so they are still artificially high.

    Full ranking:
    Rank Change Team Record Points
    1 - Michigan 9-0 672
    2 - Florida State 9-0 651
    3 +3 Oregon 8-1 608
    4 +1 Ohio State 9-0 591
    5 -2 Notre Dame 7-3 587
    6 -2 Texas 8-1 580
    7 - Washington 9-0 577
    8 - Oklahoma 7-2 562
    9 +2 Penn State 8-1 561
    10 +2 Alabama 8-1 548
    11 -1 Georgia 9-0 547
    12 -3 USC 7-3 542
    13 +3 Louisville 8-1 514
    14 -1 Kansas State 6-3 508
    15 - Ole Miss 8-1 486
    T16 +6 Tennessee 7-2 484
    T16 - Texas A&M 5-4 484
    18 +3 Arizona 6-3 478
    19 - Oregon State 7-2 476
    20 -6 North Carolina 7-2 472
    21 -3 LSU 6-3 465
    22 +2 Liberty 9-0 463
    23 +16 Utah 7-2 459
    24 -1 Duke 6-3 456
    25 +8 Oklahoma State 7-2 454
    26 +3 Kansas 7-2 452
    27 -7 UCLA 6-3 451
    28 -3 SMU 7-2 446
    T29 +2 Iowa 7-2 444
    T29 -3 Wisconsin 5-4 444
    31 -1 Missouri 7-2 435
    32 -4 Miami (FL) 6-3 433
    33 +18 West Virginia 6-3 428
    34 +15 Clemson 5-4 424
    35 +1 Fresno State 8-1 423
    36 +16 Kentucky 6-3 419
    37 +1 Nebraska 5-4 418
    38 +2 Texas Tech 4-5 414
    39 -5 Rutgers 6-3 413
    40 -13 Maryland 5-4 408
    41 +20 Georgia Tech 5-4 407
    T42 +12 JMU 9-0 405
    T42 -7 Virginia Tech 4-5 405
    T44 +3 UTSA 6-3 403
    T44 -1 Florida 5-4 403
    46 -9 Air Force 8-1 402
    47 +11 Auburn 5-4 401
    T48 -5 Jacksonville State 7-3 400
    T48 -8 Colorado 4-5 400
    50 -3 New Mexico State 7-3 398
    51 -1 TCU 4-5 397
    T52 +12 UNLV 7-2 396
    T52 -6 Iowa State 5-4 396
    54 -1 Minnesota 5-4 392
    55 +1 Troy 7-2 389
    T56 +1 Toledo 8-1 386
    T56 -24 Miami (OH) 7-2 386
    58 -15 South Alabama 4-5 385
    59 +1 Arkansas 3-6 383
    60 -1 Memphis 7-2 377
    61 +7 NC State 6-3 374
    62 +3 UCF 4-5 372
    T63 -2 Tulane 8-1 370
    T63 +6 Boston College 6-3 370
    T63 - Washington State 4-5 370
    66 +9 Illinois 4-5 360
    67 +9 Texas State 6-3 359
    T68 -28 Ohio 6-3 356
    T68 +1 Coastal Carolina 6-3 356
    T70 +10 Appalachian State 5-4 353
    T70 +8 Wake Forest 4-5 353
    72 -5 Northern Illinois 4-5 352
    73 +14 Houston 4-5 345
    T74 -8 Georgia Southern 6-3 342
    T74 +11 Northwestern 4-5 342
    76 -21 San Jose State 4-5 336
    T77 -4 Louisiana 5-4 335
    T77 +6 FAU 4-5 335
    T77 -6 Purdue 2-7 335
    80 -9 BYU 5-4 332
    81 +11 South Carolina 3-6 331
    82 +1 Rice 4-5 330
    83 +4 Boise State 4-5 328
    84 +11 Wyoming 6-3 326
    85 -4 Mississippi State 4-5 324
    86 +8 Syracuse 4-5 323
    T87 +2 Old Dominion 4-5 321
    T87 +25 Army 3-6 321
    T89 -13 Georgia State 6-3 320
    T89 -10 Louisiana Tech 3-7 320
    T91 -2 Pittsburgh 2-7 318
    T91 +7 Cincinnati 2-7 318
    93 -12 Virginia 2-7 317
    T94 +8 Western Kentucky 5-4 316
    T94 +8 Utah State 4-5 316
    96 -22 California 3-6 315
    97 +1 Bowling Green 5-4 313
    98 +9 Baylor 3-6 308
    99 -2 Vanderbilt 2-8 306
    100 - UNT 3-6 303
    101 -5 Marshall 4-5 300
    102 +3 UTEP 3-7 298
    103 -3 Buffalo 3-6 297
    104 -18 Eastern Michigan 4-5 292
    T105 +5 Central Michigan 5-4 287
    T105 -13 Arizona State 2-7 287
    107 +8 Michigan State 3-6 286
    108 +1 Colorado State 3-6 285
    T109 -18 Western Michigan 3-6 284
    T109 +7 Stanford 3-6 284
    111 +6 Indiana 3-6 283
    112 +7 Hawaii 3-7 277
    T113 +9 Arkansas State 5-4 275
    T113 - USF 4-5 275
    T115 +5 Charlotte 3-6 271
    T115 -13 Connecticut 1-8 271
    T117 -1 San Diego State 3-6 265
    T117 -9 Sam Houston 1-8 265
    119 -13 FIU 4-5 263
    120 - Middle Tennessee 2-7 261
    121 +3 UAB 3-6 259
    122 -12 Massachusetts 3-7 258
    123 +3 Akron 2-7 252
    124 +1 ECU 1-8 251
    125 -2 Nevada 2-7 248
    T126 -12 New Mexico 3-6 240
    T126 +1 Navy 3-5 240
    128 +1 Ball State 2-7 230
    129 -1 UL Monroe 2-7 229
    130 +1 Southern Mississippi 2-7 225
    131 -1 Tulsa 3-6 221
    132 - Temple 3-6 208
    133 - Kent State 1-8 192
    5

    • I feel like USC is way artificially high, even with the extra game. I think they've only lost big games and only won cupcakes?

      3

      • I'd agree with that assessment. If I were doing it by eye, they'd definitely be lower. But one of my main objectives when I created the model was to reward teams that schedule tough opponents. USC has Notre Dame plus their 9 P5 conference foes and no FCS teams. (Ironically, the Notre Dame blowout loss is the game dragging them down the most.)

        3

  • I found today’s poll super hard. My methodology is what it always is: look at the last week’s rankings, look at the results, and vibe my way through it.

    The hardest part of this week was when I got to 20, realized I forgot about Oklahoma, and had to figure out the middle again.

    I have very low confidence on my picks under the 10 or 11 slot, but based on this week’s results, so do the professional pollers too.

    1. Michigan
    2. Ohio State
    3. Washington
    4. Florida
    5. Georgia
    6. Oregon
    7. Penn State
    8. Texas
    9. Alabama
    10. Louisville
    11. Ole Miss
    12. Missouri
    13. Oklahoma
    14. Oregon State
    15. Utah
    16. Tennessee
    17. LSU
    18. Kansas
    19. Notre Dame
    20. Tulane
    21. USC
    22. Oklahoma State
    23. Clemson
    24. Arizona
    25. UCLA
    4

  • This week's poll. Computer resume-based ranking system:

    1. Ohio State | 9 - 0 | LW: 1 ( - )
    2. Washington | 9 - 0 | LW: 5 (+3)
    3. Florida State | 9 - 0 | LW: 2 (-1)
    4. Texas | 8 - 1 | LW: 4 ( - )
    5. Michigan | 9 - 0 | LW: 3 (-2)
    6. Alabama | 8 - 1 | LW: 7 (+1)
    7. James Madison | 9 - 0 | LW: 6 (-1)
    8. Georgia | 9 - 0 | LW: 11 (+3)
    9. Ole Miss | 8 - 1 | LW: 10 (+1)
    10. Penn State | 8 - 1 | LW: 12 (+2)
    11. Liberty | 9 - 0 | LW: 9 (-2)
    12. Louisville | 8 - 1 | LW: 14 (+2)
    13. Oregon | 8 - 1 | LW: 15 (+2)
    14. Oklahoma | 7 - 2 | LW: 8 (-6)
    15. Kansas | 7 - 2 | LW: 21 (+6)
    16. Iowa | 7 - 2 | LW: 19 (+3)
    17. Troy | 7 - 2 | LW: 24 (+7)
    18. Missouri | 7 - 2 | LW: 16 (-2)
    19. Utah | 7 - 2 | LW: 18 (-1)
    20. Oklahoma State | 7 - 2 | LW: 35 (+15)
    21. Tulane | 8 - 1 | LW: 20 (-1)
    22. Fresno State | 8 - 1 | LW: 29 (+7)
    23. LSU | 6 - 3 | LW: 23 ( - )
    24. Notre Dame | 7 - 3 | LW: 17 (-7)
    25. Toledo | 8 - 1 | LW: 28 (+3)
    1. Tennessee | 7 - 2 | LW: 27 (+1)
    2. Oregon State | 7 - 2 | LW: 30 (+3)
    3. USC | 7 - 3 | LW: 22 (-6)
    4. Kansas State | 6 - 3 | LW: 25 (-4)
    5. Duke | 6 - 3 | LW: 40 (+10)
    6. Memphis | 7 - 2 | LW: 38 (+7)
    7. Air Force | 8 - 1 | LW: 13 (-19)
    8. North Carolina | 7 - 2 | LW: 34 (+1)
    9. Rutgers | 6 - 3 | LW: 36 (+2)
    10. Arizona | 6 - 3 | LW: 47 (+12)
    • UGA is starting to creep up with a big win over Mizzou. Next up they have a showdown with Ole Miss, followed by Tennessee. Both will be tough matchups.
    • Michigan vs Penn State this week will help define who Ohio State's big competition is atop the B1G. I really wanna see the chaos that would happen if Penn State pulls off the upset.
    • Group of 5 intruders Liberty and James Madison both dropped this week despite winning. Their strength of schedule through the end of the season is pretty weak, so I expect that to keep happening some. However, if they win out I expect they will finish the regular season around the Top 15-ish position.
    • Surprises this week: LSU didn't move despite losing to Alabama, and Troy jumped a whopping 7 ranks after beating South Alabama. Troy's movement is more due to what happened around them, plus they got a strength of schedule boost with former opponent Army taking down Air Force.
    • This week's biggest loser is the aforementioned Air Force, who fell 19 ranks from 13 down to 32 after being defeated by Army. This week's biggest winner is Indiana who rose 26 ranks from 99 to 73 after beating Wisconsin.
    3

    • It's so goofy that Georgia is still behind JMU in your poll. Do any rankings factor into your algorithm at all or is it just record+SOS?

      Also, I didn't notice this last week, but Troy is also kind of suspect here given they went head-to-head with K-State and lost handily. But I know computers are weird at times (mine seems to go the opposite way with the G5 teams).

      3

      • Yeah it's just a part of how my poll is set up. There can be some goofyness sometimes, but it usually works out by the end of the season.

        I use the Pre-Season AP rankings as a starting point, purely to give the early weeks some kind of structure. Those rankings are applied as a diminishing factor from Week 0 through Week 6. After Week 6 my rankings are only based on W/L record and opponent's rankings.

        Through Week 10, Georgia has the weakest strength of schedule of all Power 5 teams, with their opponents ranking 82 on average. For comparison, the average ranking of JMU's opponents is 74. So JMU's wins are worth more at the moment. Those SOS rankings are re-calculated each week, so they're going to change over the last weeks of the season. If UGA wins out, they'll be fine.

        This also explains the K-State/Troy discrepancy. Yes K-State beat Troy earlier in the season, but my spreadsheet doesn't really care who you beat, it only cares about what your opponent is ranked and whether you won or lost. Teams don't get a head-to-head boost against previous opponents.

        I like this ranking system in part because it takes all the human emotion out of it. Teams are ranked only based on the results of their games and how strong their opponents are ranked, so their name or conference or my personal feelings of where they should be ranked don't factor into it. It also looks at their entire body of work evenly, so early games aren't weighted differently than late-season games, which is different from how AP and most human polls do it.

        Of course, one of the obvious drawbacks of this system is highlighted by the UGA scenario: the best team in the country could be cursed with a bad schedule. For that I rely on the other eye test based polls in c/cfb to balance me out. I bring the robotic analysis, I'll let others handle the vibes.

        4

    • I know I'm just petty, but I really miss alabama being ranked behind James Madison in this poll lol.

      3

  • Here's mine. I still don't feel like fsu deserves to be as high as they are in my 100% gut based poll, but my brain can't provide a compelling enough argument to keep them lower. I've also got Tennessee top 10 again, definitely not caused by bias, no siree. This week will also see either Penn State or Michigan drop like a stone

    1. Michigan
    2. Washington
    3. Georgia
    4. Texas
    5. Florida State
    6. Oregon
    7. Ohio State
    8. Alabama
    9. Penn State
    10. Tennessee
    11. Ole Miss
    12. Notre Dame
    13. Utah
    14. LSU
    15. Louisville
    16. Missouri
    17. Iowa
    18. Liberty
    19. Oklahoma
    20. James Madison
    21. Duke
    22. Oregon State
    23. Kansas
    24. Tulane
    25. Oklahoma State
    2
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