Looking for some discussion about a very intriguing concept. Members of this community commonly refer to this concept as MOASS. It doesn't often get discussed directly, but it looms large behind many discussions.
For posterity's sake, I'd love to get some discussion about it directly. It's November 24, 2023. As the future unfolds, I'd like to be able to look back on a discussion like this and see what the thoughts about this idea were at this time.
Here are a couple of questions that might be worthy of discussion.
What is MOASS?
What is the probability of this event occurring over what period of time?
Is it inevitable?
Is it controversial? If so, why?
Are many people aware of the idea?
Of people that are aware of it, there are those that believe that it is a real thing that will happen, and there are those that believe that it is not a real thing that will ever happen. Why do some people believe that it cannot happen?
Who benefits if MOASS materializes?
Who does not benefit / who suffers if MOASS materializes?
Is MOASS potentially an existential threat to some parties? If yes, which parties?
If MOASS is an existential threat to some parties, and if those parties had an interest in self-preservation, how would they be feeling? How would they be behaving? What actions would they likely be taking in the interest of self-preservation?
What are some of the implications if/when MOASS materializes?
Preface: This is my personal opinion. Which is subject to change based upon new information. I welcome an open discussion on the subject!
What is MOASS?
"The Mother of All Short Squeezes".
What is the probability of this event occurring over what period of time?
Impossible to say definitively. There is an argument to be made that the prerequisites have been met and that is ramifications are ripping through the global financial system as I am writing this post. And that this with a claim on the equity of a company (or companies) that have been abusively naked-short-sold will appreciate rapidly and exponentially through a process of forced closures pending an inevitable catalyst. Alternatively, it can be argued that the status quo is too powerful, that corruption is too deep seated, & that the liabilities that would result in would lead to The MOASS will be can-kicked to infinity. Finally, the possibility of The MOASS can be written off as being a "conspiracy theory". I will expand on these below.
Is it inevitable?
Depends on who you ask. I think the better questions are multi-faceted. These questions being: Will be a disruption to the current world order? If so, who will be the beneficiaries? And finally, why did these beneficiaries benefit from this change?
Is it controversial? If so, why?
Absolutely. The ramifications of The MOASS must include a significant transfer of wealth from Wall Street's elite to individual household investors across the globe. Along with Wall Street's coffers being drawn down, this will also depreciate the value of the largest "blue chip" & "low risk" investment vehicles. The reason being that these are the assets that will be sold off by The Wall Street Elite in order to meet their margin call. Along with The Wall Street Elite suffering. Unfortunately, so will many households that are passively invested into broad market exposure. And for them, this depreciation will not be offset by the asymmetric upside of The Equities that are skyrocketing in value due to The MOASS. The MOASS represents absolute disruption to the stability of the status quo.
Are many people aware of the idea?
Hard to say for sure. But widespread knowledge is not likely. At most, perhaps a few million people around the world.
Of people that are aware of it, there are those that believe that it is a real thing that will happen, and there are those that believe that it is not a real thing that will ever happen. Why do some people believe that it cannot happen?
This will be contingent on the narrative that someone believes in the contract of The MOASS. The likelihood of some sort of global reset, and subsequently the likelihood of being able to benefit from such an event by proactively taking a countercultural position. And investing in precisely in certain equities that the Corporate Media has been telling everyone to avoid for over 3 years running.
Who benefits if MOASS materializes?
At the very least, this that hold long positions on any equities that have been abusively sold short in the past, and are being force closed due to The MOASS. The set of beneficiaries could expand based on other criteria. Such as these MOASS stocks being included into major stock indices before the MOASS occurs. The MOASS could also result in globally inclusive benefits, as it would strike a major blow to global corruption in Cundiff markets, and enrich millions of individuals around the world, who may invest in their local communities.
Who does not benefit / who suffers if MOASS materializes?
Those who have been engaging in illegal naked short selling, those who have been supporting them, and potentially those who are passively invested into broad market exposure.
Is MOASS potentially an existential threat to some parties? If yes, which parties?
Absolutely. This is outlined in previous answers.
If MOASS is an existential threat to some parties, and if those parties had an interest in self-preservation, how would they be feeling? How would they be behaving? What actions would they likely be taking in the interest of self-preservation?
They have been, and continue to perform any actions that they can to survive another day. These people are narcissists and will breach any legal or moral contact in order to survive and keep their power.
What are some of the implications if/when MOASS materializes?
There are too many implications to list here. Broadly speaking; The MOASS has the potential to redistribute wealth on a global scale, result in massive tax receipts for world governments, and issue in an Era of transparency in world financial markets. There will be disruption & pain in the short to medium term for many. But, also the possibility (dare I say a likelihood?)of a better world in the long-term.
1 "Nice Gain": Short interest is as the "experts" and "authorities" report, say 20%. In this scenario, the short bet is simply driven out as GME profitability manifests and 20% of GME holders are able to cash out a nice profit on the squeeze if they want, or just hold onto a good stock for the long term. This wouldn't really be a MOASS scenario but it's important to have it as a possible baseline.
2 "Baby MOASS": Short interest is greater than "experts" and "authorities" report--say closer to 100%. Shareholders are able to sell their shares at pretty ridiculous valuations seen in say, the VW squeeze. Ultimately everything is resolved and many apes make life-changing money.
3 "Global Financial Collapse MOASS": Through regulatory circumvention and good old fashioned fraud, short interest is several fold the float. Anything above 200% pretty much. In this scenario, most apes feel comfortable selling some shares at life-changing prices, and keeping the rest to see how it goes. In this scenario, the entirety of Western market mechanics are revealed to be fraudulent and every derivative begins to unwind. Fortunes are made and lost in minutes.
Scenario three is exciting but also scary because it's the all-bets-are-off scenario, where exchanges and other financial entities may be taken over by the government as a matter of national security. Don't be surprised if courts/politicians/military get involved in very nasty ways to protect the current order of things. They're not going to let the market sort it out if it becomes a matter of self preservation.
In scenario 3 we may see shares forcefully disgorged at a decreed payout rate because mathematically there is no other way to resolve it other than pleading with the apes to be gracious and sell, but the cabal doesn't operate that way.
The discourse here pivots fundamentally on the concept of ownership; it's the cornerstone of this narrative. When one scrutinizes the dynamics of pricing, particularly in the context of stocks, it becomes evident that there's an artificiality to it — a 'fakeness', if you will. This realization leads to a startling revelation: the general public was never truly intended to participate in purchasing these stocks, especially during periods of short selling. These companies, it seems, were predestined for demise, orchestrated by forces beyond their control.
This scenario unfolds as the quintessential "back door" strategy, a paradigmatic shift that represents the antithesis to the established order — the yin to the yang, if you will. It's akin to playing a reverse card in a strategic game, a disruptive move that upends expectations. The analogy of a black hole and the sun's light, while not entirely fitting, captures the essence of this phenomenon: the inexorable pull of a black hole, overwhelming even the sun's radiance once it ventures too close.
We find ourselves at a critical juncture, a precipice of change. The entities positioned against this new shift are visibly unraveling, both in terms of their composure and their once-formidable power. It's a moment of profound transformation, akin to finding oneself in an entirely new realm, far removed from the familiar landscapes of Kansas.
The stage was meticulously set, the pieces strategically placed. However, a novel element has been introduced into this elaborate game: the retail investor. Historically marginalized and excluded from significant participation, the retail investor's entry into the fray has altered the dynamics profoundly. This change has instilled a sense of fear among the traditional players.
To presume that this transition will occur without tumult is to exhibit a certain naivety. The path ahead is fraught with potential upheaval, as old paradigms give way to new realities.
For me, there are maybe 4 MOASS scenarios I can envision, which are not mutually exclusive.
GMErica:
GameStop builds a blockchain exchange and/or some sort of metaverse mall where companies and brands can grow, thrive, and find real price discovery outside of the rigged stock market.
Shorts will be forced to close their positions and there's a squeeze in the stock market and perhaps on the blockchain as well.
TEDDY:
We see a handful of brands under one umbrella, perhaps sharing resources, logistics, marketing, colocation, real estate, etc. These zombie companies all emerge together forcing years of short positions to close.
BASKET 🧺:
Knowing that short hedgies are using swaps, ETFs, and other basket tranches to short multiple stocks together at once, the first one of these stocks to see a squeeze will cause the entire basket to squeeze. The sneeze in 2021 saw multiple stocks pop, not just GME. In my opinion, the stock with the smallest float, high short interest, and a decent amount of DRS'd shares may squeeze first and then set off MOASS.
DRS - LOCK THE FLOAT:
A stock with high short interest, and a group of apes who direct register their shares (thus removing those shares from the DTCC), to the point where the entirety of the free float (or even TSO) are mathematically proven to be registered, will provide irrefutable evidence of naked shorting and those naked short positions will have to be forcibly closed, sparking MOASS. 🚀🚀🚀
GameStop seems to have the biggest DRS movement with apes owning around 30% or more of the company. As this continues, it could spark MOASS. It may be possible for a company with a much smaller float, i.e. KOSS, ideally with a low price, to be DRS'd even faster, thus sparking MOASS sooner.
Still, it provides a good presentation of a competing narrative, which is valuable. But you have to wonder why a video creator would need to resort to mischaracterizations and factually inaccurate information to try and paint a particular picture.