Polls showed dump had a 1-5% chance of winning in 2016 so you'll excuse me if i don't put much stock in poll results. It aint over till the fat lady sings.
Don't want to encourage complacency, but back then he was a wild card in every sense of the word. Not even his supporters today knew if they were going to vote for him back then. These days, he's a known variable, and observing trends are important. But like I said, don't be complacent, go out there and vote next year.
Not even his supporters today knew if they were going to vote for him back then.
This is completely false, I have no idea where you're getting this idea. Trump was extremely popular with conservatives in the 2016 election, and conservative voters are famous for toeing the party line even when they don't like the candidate, so even if they didn't like him they all knew they'd still be voting for him. There was absolutely no question at all on if his supporters were going to vote for him
I think the GOP establishment recognize if Trump is not on the ticket, turnout will plummet and have a huge ripple effect on their candidates down ticket. I think they know he'll lose but they're terrified of being wiped out without him.