Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trump
Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News for Trump
A new POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll punctures some prevailing political narratives about the Trump indictments.
Lol Republicans want no penalty if he's convicted, but I'm willing to bet those assholes would throw the whole library at any minority breaking the law or woman seeking an abortion.
133I'm not super trusting of polls anymore, especially because they're usually done by telephone. However-
The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
This makes me a little more trusting despite that whopping MoE. It sounds like bad news for Trump overall.
45I have a related degree. The reason people distrust polls, is because the media frequently misreports or misrepresents them.
Eg. aggregated polling from the 2016 suggested Trump had a 1/3 chance of winning. If you believed some media coverage every poll said Clinton was certain to win. That was how the media reported on the polling, not the polling itself. Invariably Trump winning in 2016 was within the margin of error.
that whopping MoE
Not a large margin of error. You're extrapolating from 1000 people to 300 million. It's astonishing it's that low if you think about it.
because they’re usually done by telephone
Not that common anymore. Often they'll do a a telephone poll then supplement it with online or other methods. Here's IPSOS's article about this poll:
The study was conducted online in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and political party affiliation. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2022 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.
39Ok, fair enough. I defer to your expertise.
10Indeed, the problem isn't polls themselves, assuming they're well constructed they're generally sound data, it's the interpretation and packaging of it as reported to the larger populous that gets in the way. Sometimes it gets to the point of funny when someone does an infographic where 30% and 60% somehow appear to have the same weight.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
7My biggest issue with polls is that the media tout them as predictions, ignoring the fact that even if the data is 100% valid, circumstances can change dramatically in just a couple of days.
I maintain that polls are not actionable data for voters. They can help campaigns see trends and gauge the effectiveness of messaging, but they are useless to voters.
5Thanks! I really like how Lemmy users with expertise in their area can add nuance to a lot of reporting, it really matters.
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The 2 percent of Democrats who don't think he's guilty are suspect at least.
1I'm not super trusting of polls anymore
Like, do you not believe the people responded the way they say they did?
-9Not the responses themselves but the methodologies of collecting responses don't result in accurate representation of the population.
Using collection methods that skew demographics in one direction or another, like older people being more likely to pick up a phone call.
Failing to account for other potentially major variables. Like the 2016 and 2020 elections, pollsters failed to account for negative voter turnout, people who were motivated to vote against a specific candidate, which had major impacts on the elections.
8
Bad news, the court of public opinion has or should have little to no bearing on legal proceedings.
But hey great news, the court of public opinion has or should have little to no bearing on legal proceedings.
43The court of public opinion has a lot to do with an election, however. And that's the problem for Trump now.
40When you get to the second question, "Do you believe that Donald Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes in the federal 2020 election subversion election case?" and 14% of Republicans think he is guilty. If they are unwilling to vote for Trump, that's potentially an election flusher. While popular vote doesn't win elections (Hillary pulled 2.1% more of the popular vote than Trump in 2016), it can shift the electoral college votes in states, turning red states (potentially) to blue.
In the 2020 election, Trump won North Carolina (15 electoral college votes), Trump got 2,758,775 votes, Biden 2,684,292. If 14% of the republicans abstained from voting in 2020, Trump would have received about 2,372,547 votes, losing the state to Biden rather than winning it.
Yes, Trump lost to Biden anyway in 2020, but Republicans that won't vote for Trump, nor a Democrat, just won't vote. And voters not voting can shift Electoral College votes in states.
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It has a lot to do with it. Where do you think a jury comes from?
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Jesus fuck, look at those republican numbers. Fucking cunts live in an imagined fascist state that they’re trying to make real.
14I have some MAGA family who brush away all these indictments by saying, "The deep state doesn't want him to win."
I have no idea what it's going to take for these cultists to drop their Trump
8Nothing. We win elections in 2024 and exceed how many voted last time. Volunteer with voting groups and get people registered and aware of how important it is.
Once some normality is restored, only then do these people realize the world moved on without them and possibly stop.
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looks exactly like every other poll about him since like 2015
3I don't care what anyone thinks, including myself. I want the legal system to do its job correctly. Nothing more, nothing less.
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