I'm writing again. We may be seeing the end of Israel.
I'm writing again. We may be seeing the end of Israel.
Empires rarely fall in one stroke. It is a process that can take time.
Couple things regarding the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria:
a) Israel's move was not borne out of desperation. It was actually quite brilliant. They had nothing left to lose, with their reputation already been in tatters. What did they gain? They killed the 3 most important Iranian military officers for coordinating the region against the US and Israel: The coordinators with Syria, Lebanon/Palestine and with Yemen. They were there in an unprecedented meeting to plan their next moves. Israel got whiff of it and immediately bombed them. Iran made a tremendous mistake by placing them all in the same room within missile range of Israel.
b) Iran has basically lost its tactical/diplomatic leadership in the area with the deaths of these 3 officers. Retaliating militarily right now would be a mistake and it's exactly what Israel wants. Iran would be unable to coordinate effectively with its allies. Meanwhile, the US would feel obliged to intervene on behalf of Israel, which would lead to direct war between US and Iran, a war that Iran might win, but Yemen and Palestine would certainly lose. Such a war would also remove the public eye from Palestine, allowing Israel (and its Arab collaborators like Jordan and Egypt) to finally evacuate Gaza.
Iran (and Lebanon) should avoid retaliating at this moment. The best thing they can do right now is to maintain the moral high ground, and continue working diplomatically to isolate Israel politically, while letting Hamas do its own thing and let Netanyahu grow truly desperate.
On the other hand, if Israel attempts to invade Lebanon, in an effort to distract its people from Palestine and save Netanyahu's reputation, then neither the US, nor anyone else will be willing to join in with Israel. And Hezzbolah, with the help of Iran, will utterly destroy Israel, possibly liberating all of the Syrian and Lebanese lands up to Galilee.
For these reasons, as well as the other things going on mentioned in the article, Iran should retaliate politically and not militarily.
9Iran should definitely retaliate militarily, the international community has proven to be useless so far. Bombing an embassy and killing Iranian leadership is an act of war and Iran has every right to retaliate militarily, failing to do so expresses that Israel can do whatever they want and face no consequences.
Its laughable to even talk about "retaliate politically" when all the international institutions have done absolutely nothing to stop Israel from engaging on crimes against humanity. Iran already endured the murder of their general, and the international community did jackshit.
28The US will spin any major military action as pretext for joining with Israel against Iran. Israel is on a path of self-destruction right now. Giving Netanyahu the chance to declare himself a "hero" for defending Israel against Iran will avert that.
The attack on the Iranian embassy was not just a random act. Israel has decapitated Iranian military leadership in the region. Much like how ISIS framed Syria for the gas attacks in civilian centers, this attack is aimed to provoke Iran into a trap. And this was probably planned alongside US strategists.
It isn't laughable to talk about political retaliations at all. Just look at what happened after the attack. Europeans are silent or condemning, where before they'd support Israel in a heartbeat. The US is in an uneasy position where what remnant of leverage it had over the global south has evaporated after they tried downplaying the attack. Russia has pulled even further away from Israel and outright condemned them.
We need to look at this materialistically and not emotionally. Iran by the way, understands this. It is using its threats as diplomatic tools to primarily destabilize Israel rather than to invade or inflict major punitive damages.
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I don't know much about Iran's chain of command, but I find it hard to believe that killing 3 guys completely obliterates their ability to communicate and coordinate with their allies. This is some real big "Great Man History" stuff going on right here.
25No it really isn't. The 3 generals who planned every operation and move for the region are dead. That means operational planning, coordination and leadership need to be undertaken by replacements who have barely been on the job for 2 weeks, who possibly don't know their own assets, and who do not have relationships with the Syrian, Palestinian, Lebanese and Yemeni leadership they need to coordinate with. If you don't understand why that last bit is important, then I don't know what to tell you, besides read up more on how all these forces operate in the region.
Let me put it simply: You want Iran to enter in a war with the US, possibly NATO, while a vital part of the military leadership that will lead this war is new and inexperienced, its allies busy doing other things, and this war could possibly destroy both every gain Iran has made diplomatically and the momentum for Palestinian independence. And what does it get out of it? Israel gets to learn not to do it again.
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I would agree, and even maybe argue, that Iran may not be preparing a military act against Israel over the strike. They've been teasing it for 2 weeks and without having done anything yet, it's driving the Zionists mad. There were reports (I don't know how true they are) that they used 2 million $ missiles against Hezbollah's rocket attack in the north as they thought they were Iranian ballistic missiles.
Israel's situation is not a good one right now, both economically, demographically and politically. The strike on the embassy, while I can agree it was useful to them, is ultimately destroying them further instead of boosting the popularity of Nethanyahu as expected. As we've seen from the Palestinian Resistance, taking out high officers does not inflict much damage on them. They can be replaced and retrained. I expect the same is true for Iran (though I don't know if the IRGC works the same way internally).
Keep in mind people have been storming Nethanyahu's residence and settlers are refusing to move back to the north and near Gaza. Many of them have left the country since October (I don't remember the number but I think it's above 10,000) and have no plans to come back.
To me, sending a hail mary exactly because your reputation is already destroyed is the ultimate desperation move; it's saying "if I'm going down, I'm taking you all with me".
Likewise I don't see the US pulling in if Iran strikes. The mood in the Western world right now is to try and appease Iran, pleading with them not to attack. This could be a 4D chess psyop (I don't doubt they fed Israel intel on the embassy meeting), but as we see from the barrage on the US base last year and the concessions made to Ansarallah, I think they know going up against Iran would be a terrible, terrible idea. Getting bogged down into another conflict while they are depleting everything to Ukraine and need to build something against China is simply not in NATO's interest.
11Goofy. I'm not gonna even explain bc others in the thread did a better job than me
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Glad to see you on the grind cde
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