Political Discussion and Commentary

You never know if you might come down with the flu or have a family emergency on Nov5. Don't take the chance if you can avoid it and vote in person early!

I think most people would lean towards AOC since there seems to be lack of competition in the area of charisma and not-being-old categories.

Who do you think could be the next "Bernie Sanders" that could possibly run for president in 2028/2032? A lot can happen over the next 4 years, so 2028 there could still be a chance for a progressive president.

Men aged 35-64 are Trump's leading demographic. Republicans control nearly 100% of talk radio.

Here are the Senate races this year:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."

AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts. Kari Lake - R

This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.

FL - Rick Scott - R Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D. Rick Scott - Safe R.

Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.

MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D. Larry Hogan - R

MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running Elissa Slotkin - Safe D. Mike Rogers - R

MT - Jon Tester - D Jon Tester - D Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.

Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.

NV - Jacky Rosen - D Jacky Rosen - Safe D. Sam Brown - R

OH - Sherrod Brown - D Sherrod Brown - D. Bernie Moreno - R

Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.

PA - Bob Casey - D Bob Casey - Safe D. David McCormick - R

TX - Ted Cruz - R Colin Allred - D Ted Cruz - Safe R.

Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.

WI - Tammy Baldwin - D Tammy Baldwin - Safe D. Eric Hovde - R

WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running Glenn Elliott - D Jim Justice - Safe R.

The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.

CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running Adam Schiff - Safe D. Steve Garvey - R.

CT - Chris Murphy - D Chris Murphy - Safe D. Matt Corey - R.

DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D. Eric Hansen - R.

HI Mazie Hirono - D Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd. Bob McDermott - R

IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov. Valerie McCray - D. Jim Banks - Safe R.

MA - Elizabeth Warren - D Elizabeth Warren - Safe D. John Deaton - R.

ME - Angus King - I David Costello - D. Demi Kouzounas - R. Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.

MN - Amy Klobuchar - D Amy Klobuchar - Safe D. Royce White - R.

MO - Josh Hawley - R Lucas Kunce - D. Josh Hawley - Safe R.

MS - Roger Wicker - R Ty Pinkins - D Roger Wicker - Safe R.

ND - Kevin Cramer - R Katrina Christiansen - D. Kevin Cramer - Safe R.

NE - Deb Fischer - R Deb Fischer - Safe R. Dan Osborn - I

Osborn is getting closer in the polls, but I don't see a steady red state going I.

NE - Pete Ricketts - R Preston Love - D. Pete Ricketts - Safe R.

NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez. Andy Kim - Safe D. Curtis Bashaw - R.

NM - Martin Heinrich - D Martin Heinrich - Safe D. Nella Domenici - R.

NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D. Mike Sapraicone - R.

RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D. Patricia Morgan - R.

TN - Marsha Blackburn - R Gloria Johnson - D. Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.

UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running Caroline Gleich - D. John Curtis - Safe R.

VA - Tim Kaine - D Tim Kaine - Safe D. Hung Cao - R.

VT - Bernie Sanders - I Bernie Sanders - Safe I. Gerald Malloy - R.

WA - Maria Cantwell - D Maria Cantwell - Safe D. Raul Garcia

WY - John Barrasso - R Scott Morrow - D. John Barrasso - Safe R.

So...

Ind. -> D +1 D -> R +1 Ind. -> R +1 Tossup - OH

Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).

As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.

So if Montana flips. 51 R, 45 D + 4 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.

WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 52 R, 45 D + 3 I = 48.

AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 52 R, 46 D + 2 I = 48.

OH being the tossup, could be 53 R vs. 45 D + 2 I = 47. OTOH - Could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.

However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.

This is probably a bad idea, but I'll give it a whirl.

as well as the presidency

Obama had his YouTube popularity in 08', and Trump arguably won (with assistance) the internet strategy in 2016 vs Clinton.

What technological "channel" might propel the next US president to the finish line?

>WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting. This is up from 54% in March.

>Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from 59% in the spring.

No real changes here, next date to watch is Thursday, September 26th:

If you're trying to keep track of where we're at in the Trump prosecutions:

Updated 09/06/2024

Washington, D.C. 4 federal felonies January 6th Election Interference Investigation Indictment Arrest&nbsp; <- You Are Here Trial - The trial, originally scheduled for March 4th, had been placed on hold pending the Supreme Court ruling on Presidential Immunity.

The Supreme Court ruled that the President does enjoy limited immunity for "official acts", it now returns to lower court to determine what, if any, of his acts leading up to 1/6 were "official".

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity/index.html

On 8/27, a new federal grand jury re-indicted Trump on all four counts in a hearing this time excluding evidence barred by the Supreme Court.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/trump-indicted-federal-election-interference-case-supreme-court-immuni-rcna168503

"Judge Chutkan set a date of Sept. 26 for prosecutors in the office of the special counsel, Jack Smith, to submit an opening brief to her on the question of immunity."

"Judge Chutkan told Mr. Trump’s lawyers to respond to the government’s submission about immunity by Oct. 17. She also told them to finish making their arguments for why they need more discovery information from the government by Sept. 19."

"In her order, Judge Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, set a deadline of Oct. 24 for Mr. Lauro to make a formal request to file the motion about Mr. Smith’s appointment."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/us/politics/trump-election-case-jan-6.html

Conviction Sentencing

New York 34 state felonies Stormy Daniels Payoff Investigation Indictment Arrest Trial Conviction <- You Are Here Guilty, all 34 counts. Sentencing - Originally scheduled for July 11, 2024, then September 18th following the Supreme Court's ruling on Presidential immunity, sentencing is now delayed until 11/26, after the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/nyregion/trump-sentencing-delay-ruling.html

Georgia 10 state felonies Election Interference As of 3/13/24 - Judge McAfee cleared 6 charges, 3 against Trump, saying they were too generic to be enforced. As of 3/15/24 - The case may proceed, but either Fulton County DA, Fani Willis and her office or Special Prosecutor Nathan Wade must remove themselves due to the appearance of impropriety. Investigation Indictment Arrest <- You Are Here All 19 defendants have surrendered. Trial - October 4th, 2024 hearing has been set to determine if Fani Willis can remain on the case. Three defendants, Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney Powell, and bail bondsman Scott Hall, have all pled guilty and have agreed to testify in other cases. Conviction Sentencing

Florida 40 federal felonies Top Secret Documents charges Investigation Indictment Original indictment was for 37 felonies.   3 new felonies were added on July 27, 2023. Arrest <- You Are Here Trial - The trial had been set to begin May 20, 2024, but was subsequently delayed indefinitely by the judge, and has now been dismissed outright under the claims that the prosecutor was not Constitutionally appointed. https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-tosses-trump-documents-case-ruling-prosecutor-unlawfully-appointed-2024-07-15/

Jack Smith appealed Judge Cannon's ruling on Monday, 8/26 to the 11th circuit.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/26/g-s1-19642/special-counsel-jack-smith-judge-cannon-appeal-trump-classified-documents Conviction Sentencing

Other grand juries, such as for the documents at Bedminster, or the Arizona fake electors, have not been announced.

The E. Jean Carroll trial for sexual assault and defamation where Trump was found liable and ordered to pay $5 million before immediately defaming her again resulting in a demand for $10 million is not listed as it's a civil case and not a crimimal one. He was found liable in that case for $83.3 million.

There had been multiple cases in multiple states to remove Trump from the ballot, citing ineligibility under the 14th amendment.

The Supreme Court ruled on March 4th that states do not have the ability to determine eligibility in Federal elections.

https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/video/united-states-supreme-court-overturns-colorado-supreme-court-donald-trump-ballot-ruling/

I run this analysis in Politics whenever there's a post about "New national poll says..." but we don't allow self posts over there so it's always buried in a comment.

National polls are useless because we don't have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.

So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:

Let's see the state breakdown now:

Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8/+11 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +3/+5 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Harris +1/+2 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +3/+4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Virginia: Harris +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5

Michigan: Harris +2, tie https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So... changes from last time...

Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.

Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

!

Please support whatever local journalism you have in your area, if you have any. Financially if possible / subscriptions. They are one of the few organizations that give a voice in support of the public good, and very rarely receive the thanks and gratitude they deserve.

Many areas no longer have local journalism and are controlled by large corporations (most local TV news for example). In that case there is not much that can be done unless you are a journalist yourself.

The media is arguably a 4th branch of government that can help to maintain a system of checks and balances.

Obviously i don't think it would be feasible to send everyone into space, but just as a thought experiment.

After a bit of discussion with @laverabe, we've agreed to update the sidebar with a more specific rule set. We have about 2 decades of moderation experience between us, and we're more or less on the same page about how to kick-start the community and get things rolling.

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I think most people would agree allocating land for the public good is a positive thing for nearly every citizen.

I'd like to be as transparent as I can with the rules. Rule 2 was added ...due to recent events.

If anyone has any suggestions for preemptive rules or modification to existing rules I am open to any changes, please suggest them here.

...seems like a big issue

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/