Microsoft completely misjudged Baldur’s Gate 3

Releasing a game and denying it to a console that outsells your own 2:1 shows how little Microsoft knows about gaming.

So… This isn’t surprising at all.

74

It's outselling is what caused Microsoft to not deny it. It originally denied it because they had a rule that games needed feature parity with both Series X and S. BG3 split screen couldn't be done on S. The massive success is what led them to relax the rule. And virtually no one saw this level of success coming from within the gaming industry, including the developers themselves.

Edit: I just realized this is being upset about Starfield.

That is totally the fault of gamers. The biggest reason given for buying a PS5 over Xbox was exclusives. What the fuck did you think was going to happen? Sony started the exclusives battle and continually came out ahead. Obviously MS is going to fight. Making exclusives such an important decision in console purchases drove exclusives to be important overall. There's no sense in being upset that the industrynis literally responded to gamer's actions and stated motivations.

45
- What the fuck did you think was going to happen?
  
  Microsoft would develop their existing first party studios and improve the quality of their first party titles, invest in third parties that they already had exclusive relationships with, or invest in up and coming studios?
  
  Had Bethesda published a Microsoft exclusive since Morrowind?
  
  12
- Sony doesn’t buy IP and deny it to other platforms. Their IP starts on Sony. If Microsoft never wanted to release Halo to Sony, it’s their decision to do so, but buying something that don’t had access to, then denying it is a shit move.
  
  7
- My reason for buying a PS5 is my Xbone bit the dust, and my Xbox 360 also had issues when I traded it in. My ps2 and ps1 still work. There was also the fact that the only available options were PS5 or Series S. I didn't buy the console for exclusives, I bought it because it was the better available console and my previous one was dead.
  
  1
Only if your goal is selling the game and not the console

14
- They're not selling large amounts of either.
  
  MS is in the subscription selling business now. Their entire gaming future hinges on GamePass, and while I like the idea of games on tap (I've basically bought BG3 for my PS5 and nothing else in the year since I bought it, enough on PS+ to keep me going and I can barely catch up let alone keep up), I suspect the big devs that spend hundreds of millions on making AAA games are less than enthralled with the idea and if GamePass and day one "free" games win, the outcome will be more games that I'm not really interested in.
  
  PS+ is not as good a product as GamePass, but I believe it's healthier overall for the gaming industry.
  
  14
- How’s that working out for them?
  
  0
What's truly not surprising is Sony fanboys defending the benefits of exclusives up until Xbox has an exclusive they want.

8
- Point out to me where I’ve done that please. And point out any fanboyism while you’re at it.
  
  -4
Yeah, but MS games aren't console exclusive. They come out on PC day one two which is a bigger audience than both consoles combined. Given the player numbers Starfield really hasn't suffered due to not being on PS. In some countries it's doing exactly what a console exclusive should and getting people to pick up an Xbox.

6
- I guarantee you it’s not doing what it could if they released cross-platform.
  
  -1
I thought this article is about BG3, wtf are you talking about?

2
- They think only PlayStation should have exclusives because it's the biggest.
  
  6

Tbf, a lot of people misjudged it, including Larian. I don't think a lot of people really believed the "choices and decisions matter" would work as well as it did. Prior to release, I read an article that talked about how it was gonna be neat that the in-game news would update based on your actions. Like, that was the noteworthy function to discuss about the game. "NPCs might talk about your actions in passing to each other".

Did Microsoft underestimate it more than others? Sure. But pretending like every corporation, including Larian, didn't underestimate it a whole lot is a bit crazy.

Edit: and isn't the game Divinity: Original Sin II? Did it have other names in other international markets?

Edit: this was submitted as a response to https://lemmy.world/comment/3615435 but Kbin didn't seem to actually tie them together. It shows me that it was written as a reply on Kbin, but seems to have lost connection to the comment hierarchy.

46

The degree of success couldn't be predicted, sure. But larian is not a new studio, BG is a big ip, DOS2 was a big success, the witcher 3 was a tremendous success, and the game was in early access for 3 years so you could very easily gauge how it was going.

If a decider can't see that coming at least as a significant possibility, they're all clowns who don't deserve more than the lowest wages.

26
- easily gauge how it was going.
  
  Except virtually everyone got it wrong still. Even the head of Larian thought it'd top out at 100k max. That's currently it's average now with it's max being more than 800% higher.
  
  BG is a big IP, but it's never had this level of success. Look at Diablo III's release (similar IP with a long break between games). It had better advertising campaign and still kind of became noise fairly quickly. Game news sites barely covered BG3 until it hit it big.
  
  Microsoft definitely undershot, but it was likely basing it on a lot of the aggregated news as well. It had barely any coverage prior to its official release. This is usually a sign that the game will be mediocre.
  
  Larian is a big studio but its last expected game from its really only known IP was cancelled after being put on hold for four years (granted BG3 was also being developed during this time). It's biggest games prior to this got at least partially funded on Kickstarter (not a knock against KS, but it's not generally seen as the sign of a strong studio to exec-types).
  
  I don't blame an executive for not seeing this coming.
  
  Executives obviously didn't see this coming. But neither did game journalists or even gamers.
  
  Its a mistake in hindsight, but with what everyone generally knew at the time, it was the expectation of most.
  
  14
Divinity Original Sin 2 was their previous game from some years ago

8
- I'm well aware of that. That's why I named it. They said "Divinity of Sin 2". I was asking if they meant Divinity: Original Sin 2 and if it went by a different name in other markets. I thought that was clear. I'm not sure how you got to think I was asking what it is.
  
  -2
I think it's just an interesting story since we have actual internal emails from Microsoft that we wouldn't have if it weren't for the justice department's lawsuit to stop the Activision buyout.

1

Looks like someone did not play Divinity of Sin 2 and so did not know about Larian´s potential ...

27

DOS2 had very weak sales on the Xbox.

5
- Considering they only care about money, that is indeed a good point!
  
  5

To be fair I think Polygon have misunderstood the email.

Calling it "second run Stadia PC RPG" implies Microsoft thought it was going to launch as a Stadia exclusive for it's first run. This was back in 2020 when Stadia was still a thing, and trying to sign up exclusives.

That doesn't mean Microsoft underestimated it, but that it thought it'd already have had a run on Stadia which would make it less likely to be an important title for Microsoft.

18

To be fair I think Polygon have misunderstood the email.

They surely misunderstood the second run Stadia/PC RPG mention.

That doesn’t mean Microsoft underestimated it

What does mean Microsoft underestimated it is that part: Expected partner range: ~$5M range

9
- Their publisher also expected the game to have about one-tenth of the actual players. I don't think anyone knew how big it would be.
  
  The $5M also refers to what they thought Larian would want for it to be included on Game Pass.
  
  13

17

Wat?

3
- I think one of the love interests is a druid shape shifter...
  
  1

Are we even surprised? Microsoft clearly doesn’t know how to judge a game’s quality.

15

They do, they just define "quality" by something that can be measured in Dollar. You and I don't.

26
- True, and it’s depressing
  
  9

this article is garbage and built entirely on polygon misreading one word

9

What word did they misread? "HUB"? what does that mean?

2

What I want to know is will we ever see a new Champions of Norrath game? Does anyone remember that game?

7

BG3 is an outlier. I completely understand why it wasn't on the radar. Pent up DnD demand + decent execution sent it to the moon.

5

Baldur's Gate 1 & 2 as well as Divinity: Original Sin 2 were all huge successes and Baldur's Gate 3 was in early access for 3 years to either test it or read testers opinions. So you've got a very successful IP using a renown system, a devoted studio known for quality games with proper resources and their own, capable and proven game engine, years of polishing the game and adhering to fans feedback. If you "completely understand why it wasn't on the radar" then... I guess you could get a job at Microsoft.

26
- You're missing the scale.
  
  Everyone knew BG3 would "a success," but it hasn't just been a success, it's been a nuclear bomb of a success.
  
  Optimistically, people were expecting to get around 1 million in sales. Total. THAT would have been a GREAT SUCCESS. Today I think it has around 10 million on Steam alone, 10x the "hope we get there" number.
  
  Imagine taking a job and hoping for a $10,000 bonus for good performance, and then your boss drops $100,000 on your desk. It's that level of joyful shock.
  
  9
- Pretty revisionist of you. No one saw the success that Baldurs Gate 3 had. They literally moved up their release date to avoid it getting drowned out.
  
  The head of Larian has even said that they did not anticipate this many sales.
  
  Was this going to be a good game? Yes most people could see that.
  
  Would it reach a mainstream pocket and sell as well as it did? Most people did not predict that.
  
  6
- I guess the head of Larian Studios needs to resign and get a job at Microsoft, because he said essentially that.
  
  2
- DOS2 has sold 5M copies over the life of it. BG3 has sold nearly 10M in the first month on steam alone. Probably close to 30M over the life of the game.
  
  It's several orders of magnitude more successful and easily the most successful CRPG ever. You all really are missing the scale.
  
  1
They could have predicted more success than they probably did but I don't get why your comment has so many downvotes, Larian itself prepared for 100k players at launch too, not over 800k so no one really predicted how much of a bomb this game would be!

3