Here’s the paper no one read before declaring the demise of modern cryptography
Here’s the paper no one read before declaring the demise of modern cryptography
The advance was incremental at best. So why did so many think it was a breakthrough?
As a reminder, current estimates are that quantum cracking of a single 2048-bit RSA key would require a computer with 20 million qubits running in superposition for about eight hours. For context, quantum computers maxed out at 433 qubits in 2022 and 1,000 qubits last year. (A qubit is a basic unit of quantum computing, analogous to the binary bit in classical computing. Comparisons between qubits in true quantum systems and quantum annealers aren't uniform.) So even when quantum computing matures sufficiently to break vulnerable algorithms, it could take decades or longer before the majority of keys are cracked.
The upshot of this latest episode is that while quantum computing will almost undoubtedly topple many of the most widely used forms of encryption used today, that calamitous event won’t happen anytime soon. It’s important that industries and researchers move swiftly to devise quantum-resistant algorithms and implement them widely. At the same time, people should take steps not to get steamrolled by the PQC hype train.
If qbits double every year, we're at 20 million in 15 years. Changing crypto takes a very long time on some systems. If we're at ~20000 in 5 years, we better have usable post quantum in place to start mitigations.
But I'm not convinced yet, we'll have those numbers then. Especially error free qbits...
40If qbits double every year
And then we need to increase coherence time, which is 50ms for the current 433 qubits large chip. Error correction might work, but might not
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And everyone thinks about real time implications, what about historical ? Seems pretty likely that the NSA has been storing an appreciable fraction of the internet for a long damn while. Come Q-Day that all gets opened and searchable. What would Trump do ?
25Nothing, he will be dead. Anyone that NSA would bother to use their new and expensive quantum machines on will be an organization that should know better than to be compromised by decades old secrets getting out.
6You're no fun, orange turnip was merely an example of a bad actor getting control (going Reagan would be confusingly amusing) and it's not about anyone in particular, more so the entire worlds' dirty laundry out to dry
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Just because you can break RSA doesn't mean you instantly get access to all private databases.
Encryption by itself isn't important. You know all those big company data leaks that seem to happen every month? That data was very likely encrypted. But it doesn't matter because when you control a computer, you can see the encryption keys being used and decrypt whatever is stored.
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Man, quantum computers has been about-to-break-encryption since the 90s. The hype never ends, just a new crop of people first hear it then figure out it’s bullshit.
20It's like nuclear fusion, always just around the corner...
4Didn't you hear, they've almost succeeded at nuclear fusion, almost 90 whole seconds of stable fusion, any day now
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I don't know where the 20 million comes from Estimates are 4000 qbits for RSA 2028.
141000 qubits? Where? Last time I checked it was 50 qubits for 200ms
12Ok, I decided to dive into it today again and look what I've found:
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They still demonstrate supremacy to each other proving that their setup couldn't be simulated. These 433 and 1000 qubit processors are good only for one purpose: to simulate itself.
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Photonic QC still estimates hafnian billions times faster; if only this mathematical structure appeared to have any practical meaning
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They demonstrated that toric codes might be effective
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Just parroting stuff I heard at black hat, but aside from all the above don't we first need to have millions of logical qubits? I believe the numbers people advertise now are just physical qubits.
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