October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist
October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist
Miller's numbers show a jaw-dropping swing to Harris that would have seemed unimaginable two weeks ago.
36 years old. Never voted before in my life.... But that changed this year! I registered and voted early for Harris!
69Make it a habit. People like you can change the country, remember that
10I plan to!
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Also my first year, so cheers! (I'm 6 years older than you too.)
15Love it!
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Never too late to start!
21Felt really good. Not gonna lie.
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Thank you!
10Gotta do my part!
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i personally know at least 6 people who didnt vote last the last election at all that were enthusiastically voting harris. people are motivated this time in a way they just werent really with biden.
theres at least one outlet that was pointing out how terribly skewed the presidential polling was compared to the congressional races, which is just not technically plausible. the only explanation is biased polling processes in the presidential race to keep people invested.
theres hope.. theres possibility the polls are wildly wrong and harris gets it by 5-6 points everywhere it matters.
7I personally don't trust the polls at all. There are so many people that don't respond to the them. Especially younger people. Besides, there are soooo many people, like myself, that are voting for the first time for Harris! We got this!!!
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You're a saint!
7We got this!!!
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Ignore the polls. Just vote. I did today!
54Wtf are the polls and why do they exist..I always hear about winning/losing before any election even happens.
Is it just made up garbage?
9Polls are when organizations teach out to a percentage of the population (phone, Internet) to ask them their voting intentions.
Exit polls are the same thing, but are done after people have voted.
Sample size/distribution is supposed to be done in a way that reflects the voting intentions of the populace as a whole (doesn't always work out that way).
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Do not let your guard down. Vote. And do what you can to assure those around you vote as well. Especially that well meaning 20 something in your life with a high danger to procrastinate.
26The article spent a lot of time speculating about the reasons why one candidate or the other had a lead, without providing any data. Then it gets to this guy's model, and it's based off predictit??
I think Harris pulls this off, but as problematic as some polls can be, betting markets are even less reliable. This article essentially means nothing.
17Every poll is a lie. Vote!
8“It’s been going back and forth around the 270 line,” he told Fortune. “Right now, it’s a tossup according to the PredictIt numbers. The big question in my mind is, how much Republican bias is there in the prediction markets?”
According to this data person, Trump blew a huge lead to make it evens. Please vote
12Don't think he ever had a 'huge' lead, but he sure did blow whatever he did have.
10wtf timeline are we living in for that to be literally what he did?
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According to betting data. I remain skeptical — it’ll be a tight one.
8Betting data was way more in favor of trump than normal polling, but it's all bet driven so it's generally going to lean to whichever side gambles more.
9