The AI bubble is 17 times the size of the dot-com frenzy — and four times the subprime bubble, analyst says
marketwatch.com
Paywall removed https://archive.is/mVUfw
The crash is going to be spectacular.
How will we crash if the White House controls the Fed? This is gonna be a different kind of financial catastrophe.
Double check your investments and be sure none of them are reliant on AI for future operative certainty.
Haha joke's on you, I can't afford to invest
Facts
As someone that has been through both of these crashes, 17 times the size of the .com bubble is really, really bad. I don't think we can even conceive of how big a hole this is going to make.
don't worry the military tech bubble will get it covered)
jokes aside - i'm working in consulting and lots of those AI startups are straight up money laundering operations that don't really need neither market research nor talent pool studies - pretty much everything is for show and next to zero real longterm planning. A rude awakening is long overdue for these hotshots.
One time I had a misfortune to ask what one of these startups is going to do when their product will fail to gain traction (it was yet another grammar check sentence finishing app like Grammarly) - how are they gonna pivot and their CEO laughed at me and said "we are going to work hard to make it a success" which is like super stupid thing to say when your project is in the superoversaturated market affected by cost of living crisis with customer engagement on a consistent decrease for the last 3 years and your product costs almost the same as the market leader but is also way worse.
Guys compare the size of American debts to Canada's
I read through the non paywalled link and I couldn't find any info on if this analysis adjusts for inflation or not. 17 times larger (before inflation possibly) seems so ripe for cherry picked data points in the name of sensationalism, that I wanted to confirm this one idea, and I didn't. Did anyone else find anything like that?
Ever ask why there is so much yellow journalism around this subject? Who benefits and why so much effort? Lemmy acts like it's totally normal because they agree with it. But r/the_donald would say the same about republican media's headlines regarding immigration.
A genuine stock market collapse would be very interesting
It's ok the stock market isn't the economy and everyone will be fine would you like to open a few hundred wells Fargo chase CITIZENS accounts preloaded with the presidential collection of crypto including 500 newly minted "Barons" ?
The cool thing about inflation is it hides shitty stock market performance.
The greater the inflation, the more stocks and GDP go up!
The Chinese and Indians are watching what is happening and busting their guts out laughing.
AI: Actually Indians
And yet, the MBAs continue to pump money into it like AI doesn't fail to provide any value in 80% of their shoehorned implementations.
It's wild how many good uses of this tech there are, and how it's mostly implemented in asinine ways, instead. It's great for brainstorming. Not so great for customer fucking service.
Everybody thinks they'll be able to time their exits perfectly or near so, and it will be somebody else left holding the bag - in other words they're ridding the bubble as high as it will take them but ready to jump off when it starts to wobble.
On past experience (having gone through 2 big crashes within the respective industries), the most professional of investors (such as Investment Banks) will probably manage it, the rest not so much, especially Retail Investors.
Well my brokerage made a bunch of income based restrictions on professional investment products. No short nasdaq futures for me
Even then some of the professionals will get nuked as well, frankly speaking it's the cautious, experienced, and old who will handle this best those who have seen the previous ones in some way be it with their own eyes or through history who will get out.
80?
I feel like that number is way over 90, 95
Because it's the only growth area. Speculators need to speculate. There's money to be made on a bubble on the way up, and tons on the way down, as long as you time it right
All these built out data centers are going to be eye sores when they go bankrupt.
Next bubble gonna be 64× ?
Good one 😂
quite an upgrade from the 32 bits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsE0BwQ3l8U&t=1492s
More of the same. I can't wait to check out from society and specifically the tech world.
it's going to be pretty cool when the USD is annihilated by this
they really boned themselves by concentrating all of it among themselves and basing its value off of fake proof of work factories
I'm sorry that i must inform you that the world today is one big pot. The 2008 crisis created by the USA housing bubble, affected the whole world. An USD annihilation today after a big bubble burst, means total collapse.
If the USD is annihilated the great depression will look like nothing. Breton Woods ended but America is still smack dab in the middle of everybody's economy. It's why no one is calling in their debt, but keep buying it. It's a fucking global ponzi scheme.
Edit: I just looked it up and 88% of global currency trades involve the dollar.
Its the reserve currency of the world. The only thing that could replace it today is the yuan, which China is absolutely prepared for when that day comes.
The euro could also replace it, but would need additional changes from the governing body of the EU first as its meant to be an amalgamated currency and cant produce enough to be a reserve currency at the moment.
The rest of the world is unfortunately not immune to US problems. What inevitably happens is the bubble pops, the government prints money to bail out the gamblers who benefitted from the bubble, then insist on austerity for regular people to get the resulting inflation under control
Yeah, but if that wild money printing turns out to be the coup de grace on the status of the USD as the World's Reserve Currency, it will just make things worse as such an event comes with its own "bubble bursting" that will massively fuck up holders of USD (such as Americans, but also anybody who didn't exit the USD on time).
The status of the USD as Reserve Currency is already pretty shaken as the EUR and other currencies have increasingly become part of the currency reserves in most countries, replacing the USD, and Trump's antics have convinced other countries to accelerate their plans to move away from using the Dollar in international trade, most notably China.
The technique of printing lots of Dollars is nowhere as safe now as it was back when it was used to paper over the problems from the 2008 Crash.
Bubble scientists need to adjust for inflation.
And the fact that they are willing and ready to print more money
This is insanity.
The dotcom bubble produced Google and Amazon.
They survived it because of massive investments by wealthy venture capitalists and a strong foothold in their markets. They also came out of it with an eye toward dominance of those markets. Lean and mean doesn't even begin to describe how awful these companies are. I don't think we are going to enjoy the surviving AI companies that emerge from this particular bubble because they will be even more capitalistic in their intent to dominate every market.
That's exactly what they are trying to do. Become bubble proof through pure size in order to be the dominant player after the pop.
I guess, if you count surviving it and having less competition. What did 2008 produce? Besides a stock reset for the rich.
2008 wasn't the collapse of the dom com bubble. That happened in 2002 or so. What happened in 2008 was the inevitable collapse of the banking and loan industry due to oversaturation of sub prime mortgages and the use of them by hedge funds as a way to cheat to industry and make shit tons of money off the backs of working class people.
They received hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout funds. That really taught them a lesson!
The “too big to fail” banks used their bailout money to buy small and medium-sized banks that were struggling, increasing the market share of the already colossal banks that caused the disaster in the first place.
It was a completely different world having several different search engines. Felt like you were actually on a discovery path. These days Google funnels you into Amazon products listings.
Also Beanz.
I'm curious about the sizes of nfts, crypto and blockchain compared to the ai bubble
Winner takes it all, we need to pump MORE money into it.
/s
So, Fiat currency is going to shit the bed and be quickly replaced by the digital dollar Which will of course destabilize the world banking system.
The US will probably try to pay off its existing trillions in debts using the USD and causing massive inflation before replacing it with the digital dollar.
America clearly thinks it won’t matter, and it can be self-sufficient until it drives enough people into a digital currency, while ignoring the massive inflation caused on the USD.
I wouldn't go as far as saying that all Fiat currency will suffer, but the USD's status as the World's Reserve Currency is definitely at risk and the effects of that are going to be massive, especially as all those excess dollars around the World rush back to the US causing massive inflation (in fact, the US seems to already have huge inflation judging by the price of essentials, it's just not officially recognized).
However, for people to rush from that to Digital Currency would require people to trust Digital Currencies as a safe holder of value and effective trade token, which is almost the opposite of reality: after over a decade of scam after scam and massive volatility in that domain the overwhelmingly majority of people wouldn't trust Digital Currencies even with the USD falling to half or even one third of its value, both because of the perception of trustworthiness of them and because such a fall, which would be massive and unheard of fall in the USD, is a common event in even the most stable of Digital Currencies, such as Bitcoin.
It seems to me that Digital Currencies are actually further away from being adopted as currencies now than they were a few years ago before all the scams and well-established perception as pretty much gambing tokens (or, in nicer terms, highly speculative investment vehicles).
Also aren't digital currencies like, the opposite of useful as mediums of exchange? They cost money to transfer, take hours for a transfer to go through, and are volatile enough that that hours long window is enough for value to fluctuate that someone could be ahead or behind hundreds or thousands of dollars on the transactions before it's even complete.
People already mostly pay through mobile, cards, online, etc. The trust is already there. Digital currencies don't have to be a cryptocurrency. A well-known institution like the federal reserve could issue a digital currency and provide assurances for stability of value as well as measures like the ability to roll back fraudulent transactions. Since it's just a number in a database and not tied up in investments, you wouldn't even need the FDIC since your account and the amount of money in your account will remain as long as the federal reserve is still around.
I'm patiently waiting for the bubble to burst and buy shares from the few surviving companies at a steep discount. It's cool to hate AI as it is now but there's more promise to it than what it's currently being used for to the annoyance of everyday people.
This is your brain on capitalism...
Nah investing in companies you hate is great, either they do well and you get money, or they do terribly and you get catharsis.
Wow, it looks just like the brain of someone who has abused aerosols!
It's not a bubble, it's something way worse - "the reduction of the employee cost burden"
AI exists to allow wealth to access skill without allowing skill to access wealth.
Hyper-local renaissance is the only answer. Get to your village and out of the city while you still can.