Former Square Enix exec on why Final Fantasy sales don’t meet expectations and chances of recouping insane AAA budgets
Former Square Enix exec on why Final Fantasy sales don’t meet expectations and chances of recouping insane AAA budgets
Former Square Enix executive Jacob Navok has shared his thoughts on less-than-expected sales of the latest Final Fantasy games. He also tried to explain why people mistakenly think that the Japanese publisher is simply setting unrealistic goals for its products.
Paraphrasing : those expectations are not too high, they're the direct result of the games' budget.
Yeah, okay, let's admit that for a second. It's not like they have no control over the scale and budget of their own games. Seems to me this still counts as unrealistic expectations...
59They seem to have things backwards.
You don’t set expected sales based on the cost of development. You set the cost of development based on the expected sales.
48The problem is that the first is easy, the later is hard, nigh impossible.
Software development is notoriously hard to predict. Specially features against time and cost of development. But video games are even harder to predict. It's impossible to know how many copies a game will sell, you might as well hire a tarot reader. Specially if the game doesn't exist yet.
This is not a justification of the AAA practices. Quite the contrary, things are this way because mid and high management refuse to do their job or plainly suck at it. I guess that the adage still rings true: I want smaller games, with worse graphics, made by well paid developers who work less hours. But this games have never sold billions of dollars or sparked billion dollar game as a service IPs. So executives think it can't be done and keep expending more in a desperate chase of the golden eggs goose.
19According to the article at least, that is essentially what they did. But their model was based on earlier years when there was higher projected growth, so the budgets were set too high as a result.
Personally, as long as the final installment in the FF7 Remake trilogy is made with the same budget as the first two and ends on a satisfying note, I'll be happy. A good ending gives the trilogy as a whole have more lifetime sales than it would if part 3 makes the first two less good in retrospect, i.e. the Mass Effect 3 effect.
10
They also at least highlighted the platform locking was not a good idea for them, which I suppose most people will agree with.
13Seems like they're not aware of how much (or little) desire there is for their IPs.
4Foamstars was a new IP, so they didn't count on brand name to carry this one.
Unless they thought "Square Enix" would be enough to hype it, and yeah, for a game that far away from their usual, that would be completely disconnected from reality.
4
Maybe don't break up what was one massive and awesome game into 3 games over the course of like 8+ years. You don't even get to keep levels and abilities across each game. I know they have made them quite a bit different from the original game, but I still know I'm only getting to have 1/3 of a story at a time, now. I don't want to read half a book and know I can't finish the other half for another 5 years. Let alone that it may have to be on a different game system.
36Yes, but did you play the extra fluff they added to the games to fluff them out? Surely that's worth paying for the game 3 times.
6I was going to re-buy the OG ff7 just to play on my steam deck using all the awesome mods that it has to balance things and improve the looks.
Well I nixed that idea. Fucking square requires an active internet to play their 28 year old single player RPG. I may just pirate the thing, but then I can't use all the mods that have been made.
10
I've started feeling this way about anime too, so it's obviously a pervasive problem in Japanese markets.
Got a series that's interesting? You can have some curious character developments and mysteries in the twelve episodes you get, but its REAL reason for existing is the hope of selling merchandise and concluding its story arc across 100 manga releases and 80 episodes (which almost never happens)
5US animation existed for the sole purpose of merchandising and advertisements. Back in the 80s when transformers were all the rage (the cartoon existed for the almost sole purpose of selling the action figures) they released a movie that killed off most of the transformers (children cried) and they did this so they could bring in all new transformers to carry on the battle, so that kids would have to go out and buy more new toys.
2
Final Fantasy doesnt need to cost $100+ million to make; especially when your only big idea is just to make it look expensive. Execs like to blame their own hubris on market changes but like... treat your workers better and give them creative freedom and they could do great things. Instead its all on the backs of money-grubbing trend-chasers who get to keep their jobs when their inevitable failures lead to mass layoffs.
Ya'll spent 50 mil on marketing? I barely even noticed ffxvi came out. How much did Dunkey spend on marketing Animal Well and that shit was inescapable for weeks.
31We clearly run in different circles. To me, the drip-feed marketing for FF16 felt constant for the months running up to the game. Meanwhile, the very first time I heard of Animal Well was when the reviews started getting posted (and even then I only took notice because they were above average).
6I literally saw Animal Well for the first time on the sale page on PSN just before it launched. I thought about buying it because it looked good.
Meanwhile, I saw a ridiculous amount of hype for XVI every time news or a trailer dropped for it. The demo convinced me to pick it up, and I'm so glad I did. It sucks because it's the first mainline single player game since XII (or maybe X) that lives up to the brand.
2
I was excited for Persona 5, but not FFXVI. I think they’ve headed a bit too far down the road of Western imitation - going full medieval look, action combat (which I’m sorry, they’re not good at and it’s still confusing), etc.
The main thing I’ve expected from JRPGs is having a story and world that surprises me. There was something signature about the look of a guy with an oversized sword in a steampunk grungy city that pulled me into those games.
I know they poured a lot of budget into FFXVI, but it feels unplanned and vision-less. Like they could have been making the eikon fights in one team before writing the rest of the story, like how studios will film a car chase in one country and then work it into their action movie’s plot however they want.
29I don't feel that way about ffVVI at all. The story was fantastic. My only complaint was that some of the fights just felt like the eikons were damage sponges.
7I’d love to play XVI, the story sounds amazing and the graphics are cutting-edge Square but two things keep turning me off:
- The fighting system is way too close to DMC which I absolutely hated, I want a JPRG not an action game
- it’s platform exclusive, talk to me when it’s on Steam
So really they’re doing it to themselves here. Their comment about “we’re modernizing the game to bring it to more people” just rings of BS, especially with their sales recently, and if they really cared about that they’d be fast tracking and announcing a date for XVI on the PC.
10
These triple a stile developments are managed into the ground.
6Maybe it's because Final Fantasy peaked at VII-X and went downhill from there, fucking up their combat further and further with every installment?
4I would agree, but XIV (the MMO) moved so far off the norm that I don't really count it with the others. It managed to handle things pretty well, and was stomachable even if the combat mechanics aren't often what draw people in.
1Well, yeah, XIV as an MMO is a different thing. But that one also doesn't have revenue issues afaik.
1