21 hr. ago • 97%

Trump will likely declare victory early. Don’t jump to conclusions.

www.msnbc.com Opinion | Trump will likely declare victory early. Don’t jump to conclusions.

It’s unlikely that the vote counting will take quite as long this time, but we should still prepare for the vote counting to take a few days — at least.

Summary

Donald Trump is likely to claim victory on election night, despite the vote count possibly extending over several days.

Early tallies may lean Republican, reflecting in-person votes, while absentee ballots counted later may shift toward Democrats, creating a “blue shift.”

Key states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada may take extra time to declare results due to laws and ballot processing delays.

Trump might exploit early Republican leads to allege fraud.

44 comments

I think you spelled “will definitely“ wrong 😉

14
- Nah I approve of OPs wording. More people need that level of basic epistemological humility in their everyday speech.
  
  4
Absentee ballots are one reason for "red mirage" that usually gives early leads to Republican candidates. The other reason is simply that Repubs tend to live in smaller counties with fewer people in them, which means their vote counts get finished earlier than larger urban areas where Democrats tend to live. The "red mirage" is followed by a "blue shift" when the democratic votes come in.

13
The democrats could lead the entire election from the very first vote onwards, and he will still declare himself the winner. The next weeks will be very bumpy for the Americans. Let’s just hope it will only be weeks.

144
- The courts have prepared for expedited process for election cases, shortening deadlines and speeding up cases, so hopefully it should cut short legal schenanigans, and actually resolve shit wayyy before certification deadlines
  
  8
  
  Practice makes perfect.
  
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- That's certainly a possibility because he's a chronic liar. But true or not, his followers will believe him and go to bed happy. Then when the final count is over they will refuse to believe he lost because in their minds they literally saw him win. This is his con man skill in action - the one thing he's actually good at - plant a lie in people's minds, and because it was there first it makes a nest and fights off other ideas that try to displace it.
  
  6
- I would pay good money to have Trump be in sort of a Truman Show situation, where he's Truman and everyone around him are actors.
  
  He gets to be president but inside his little bubble.
  
  He can be a dictator and then have his long lost father make an appearance around sweeps.
  
  We get a sane president.
  
  29
  
  You're free to watch that show, personally I'm sick of seeing the motherfucker. Let me know when he has his final Big Mac Attack and stops wasting oxygen.
  
  10
  
  You’d need room in that bubble for approximately half of the USA. Trump isn’t what’s wrong with America. The fact that the vote is this close is what’s scary!!
  
  2
  
  He sort of did that to his own father with the family business.
  
  6
I really hope that Harris wins Iowa since that would be a big damper to Trump declaring victory.

40
- It would be pretty cool if gen Z women who never answer when pollsters call their phones turn up in droves and flip many red states that were assumed to be automatic Trump wins. Especially Texas and Florida.
  
  32
  
  Ugh I'm almost there...don't stop...do alaska
  
  12
- We're doing what we can
  
  11
The first sign of a weak man is that he cannot accept reality.

81
- Most of those don't have an army of sycophants trying to rewrite reality in realtime for them.
  
  30
  
  Anything you say against their worldview is automatically “misinformation” even when you have peer studies to back up your claim.
  
  15
I declare him a loser here and now.

34
He'll probably declare victory as soon as the polls open.

35
- The orange shit gibbon is still declaring victory from 2020
  
  34
  
  Scary to think that in the future, some parts of the country may talk about the 2020 election the same way they do about "The War of Northern Agression."
  
  14
better hope biden handles the violent mob correctly, instead of how it was responded to last time

16
Early voting in the blue wall states is blocked for count until after precinct counts. So you will see early in the night, a mirage where perhaps Trump is up. This is when he'll say he won, but by early morning, and the early vote count, the story might change. However Florida does count its early vote first.

13
- The red mirage/blue shift will probably be much smaller than prior elections, since it seems Trump supporters are using early or mail in voting more than before. The splits by party for these methods are smaller so far this year.
  
  7
Trump can declare whatever he wants. No one is going to listen to him.

-1
- His fans will listen, and that's the plan. He did this in 2016 and 2020 - declare victory during the "red mirage" portion of the evening, when he'll probably be ahead, because Republicans tend to live in low-population areas that finish their counting early because they have fewer ballots. This is a well known phenomenon on national election nights. Democratic votes tend to come in later, because more democrats live in larger urban areas that take longer to count. After Trump declares victory based on these early returns, his fans will go to bed happy. Then when all the votes are in and it turns out he lost, they'll "know" the election was stolen because in their minds they already "saw" him win.
  
  5
- They will. This is the entire reason for the attempted coup last time. Trump was up early, declared victory, then absentee ballots were counted and …. It must be fraud
  
  16
  
  Absentee ballots tipping election to Biden = fraud
  
  Trump telling Georgia Sect. of State to "find" votes putting Trump over top = official act immune from prosecution
  
  10
- That's the problem a LOT of people listen to him now and will when he try to cheat and declaring victory really early is only one of those try
  
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