I Don't Believe This Weekend's Scary Poll Numbers

I’m seeing a lot of what looks like famous last words in this thread. I just don’t know where you people get this confidence in the American people from.

Polls just create talking points for media to run around with. You could easily find (or discard) data to create any narrative you wanted. Remember when Hillary was the runaway favorite? Remember when Jeb Bush was the front runner?

Just go out and vote. End of the day no matter what the early polls say. Go Vote. Make your voice heard.

the fact that he's been indicted up and down the eastern seaboard has figured less prominently in the campaign than the current president's age.

smh

Go vote. Help other people vote. Make sure people are registered to vote, locally and in other states via online call-banks.

Nothing else matters. Secure the vote and protect the vote.

A lot can happen in a year.

I think we, as a society, have got to the point where people simply don't care about the facts any more. It's all about feelings now. I think we're really at a point where facts no longer matter.

Take a look at everything that Biden has accomplished, even in this political climate of hate. What is his reward? The voters telling him "We don't care. You're too old.". None of his accomplishments matter. All they care about is that he's north of 80 and therefore shouldn't be in the White House. And they refuse to accept the fact that a vote for anyone other than Biden, or just staying home, is a de-facto vote for someone exponentially worse.

How many Palestinians, and Muslims in general, are allowing their judgement to be clouded by the Israel/Gaza situation to the point where they're actively saying "Down with Biden, consequences be damned"? Some of them are openly willing to accept a Trump presidency simply because it's not Biden.

The Department of Justice is basically terrified of going after Trump because of the fear of partisan politics. Not the interests of justice. Partisan politics and the court of public opinion. And these people don't even have to worry about being voted out of office. They have deferred to Trump out of fear of the backlash, and have even charged Hunter Biden with crimes based on flimsy evidence just to say that they were "non-partisan". The facts have not dictated how Merrick Garland has approached anything. It's all been about the appearance of impartiality and catering to the court of public opinion.

Trump's poll numbers continue to go up with every passing indictment and every courtroom appearance. And this is after he openly and repeatedly states his intent to dismantle government as we know it and install an authoritarian state. People are hearing about this on the daily, remembering what his first term was like, and saying "Yes, I want more of that!". Not because the facts are on his side. In fact, quite the opposite: He's outright telling people what the want to hear, and the actual facts don't matter. And it's working.

This is where we are at as a society. It's facts vs. feelings, and feelings may very well win. It's very difficult to argue from a position of facts when a not-insignificant part of the voting base is saying "We know about that. We just don't care.". Getting people to change their mind on something when their opinions are based on the facts is pretty easy. Getting people to change their mind when they don't care about the facts and are just going with their feelings? Not so much.....

Look at it this way. Trump could come out tomorrow and say that you (let's pretend you're Biden) have monkeys flying out of your ass that are terrorizing Washington, DC. We all know that that's stupid and irrational (and therefore, I expect Trump to say it tomorrow). Here's the issue with it, though. You could just ignore it because it's stupid and nonsensical. But if 51% of the people who you need to vote for you are saying that monkeys flying out of your ass is a significant problem, then you have no other choice but to address the nonexistent monkeys flying out of your ass if you want to actually win the election. Sure, you could continue to say that they don't exist because duh, but if the voters are really that concerned, you'll be saying that from your campaign headquarters while watching Trump give his victory speech.

Right now, Trump is saying that an entire zoo is coming out of Biden's ass. And people are believing it.

The polls didn't predict the 2016 win by Trump. They didn't predict the 2018 blue wave accurately. They didn't predict highest voter turnout in 100 years in 2020. They failed to predict a red wave that never materialized in 2022. BUT, I've got a good feeling about polling in 2024!

Polling errors happen. Even a 95% accurate poll is bound to be wrong 1 in 20 times. This poll is such a massive outlier that the prudent thing to do is wait for more polling.

That said, I don’t doubt that Americans feel grumpy right now and they’re blaming the incumbent. I do cautiously doubt this degree of grumpiness amongst these demographic groups.

He won the first time in no small part to folks that considered both sides the same and wanted to see it all burn. Lets hope they learned their lesson.

Fascism doesn’t follow the rules, and neither do the leaders or mobs that push them to power.

Don't make the mistake of believing the reasons people give for supporting Trump over Biden are their actual reasons. Biden's age, in particular, is approximately nobody's reason for opposing him; it's an excuse they give, or maybe a reason they think will persuade others. You won't persuade anyone by debunking an argument they never cared about in the first place.

How were people reached to poll them? Is this a phone poll? How many people under 65 do you know that answer the phone to unknown numbers, and also are willing to answer loaded questions for 10 minutes?

Of the people that do answer the phone and answer, what candidate do you imagine they'd vote for?

Look, we are all still traumatized from 2016. And this shit is still way too fucking close.

Ten people at the party took a vote to see what to eat. Six people wrote "pizza" and 4 people wrote "the dog." This is US politics.

The rapist Donald J. Trump indeed raped E. Jean Carroll but the sex with Stormy Daniels was consensual.

I'd sooner believe he'd get 22 percent of the votes from pixies, elves, and the Tuatha de Denaan.

This author is a mad fool! The fey embrace chaos, they would surely surely love a 2nd Trump administration.

I'm concerned about the poll, but not freaking out like some seem to. The fact of the matter is that we're still a year out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. I think Trump's numbers will erode as the public sees more of him (because he's be relatively quiet since 2021), and they will be reminded why they don't like him. That's not even taking the trials into account, which I think will further erode his support.

Where I'm concerned is not that these people who leave Trump aren't going to Biden; they're either not going to vote or go for a third party. While it gets the job done, it leaves less margin for error because there will probably be less Democratic turnout.

I'm 62 and been ignoring calls from unknown callers for years.

But I'm getting bombarded by emails from both parties.

It would be one cold frosty day in hell before I voted RepubliKKKlan.

The demo emails are annoying -- people from other states begging for money, telling me shit I've known for years.

Staaaap!

Why are polls even being talked about right now? Is it because Trump wanted us to?

The fucker needs to be in jail. Line the outside of it with national guardsmen. The federal and state government has an obligation to both see the punishments through as well as protect the ex-potus. These are no conflicting viewpoints, but rather what must happen to knock some sense into this country.

538 sold out completely to ABc? wtf?? where have i been?

Polls are absolute bullshit. They’ve been proven time and again, why do people still let this shit scare them?

Maybe we’ll go full Idiocracy this time.

The polls are incongruous with the Democrat performance today. It's confusing. There must be a polling error or other problem

I think this is why Trump could win. "I don't believe the polls".

Democrats need to wake the fuck up - Biden is not a good candidate and time is running out to select someone else. Don't ignore the polls because you don't like what they say - that is utter stupidity.

Democrats are going to let Trump back in by their own stupid machinations pretending that everyone thinks an 81 year old president is a good idea.

This is like Hilary Clinton all over again - it was "her turn" to run so big hitters sat out the primaries. She was a bad candidate - she won her own vote well but in the US system you have to win the electoral college and she didn't do it.

Please Democrats - wake up. Not Biden.