Excuse me, but the industries AI is disrupting are not lucrative
Excuse me, but the industries AI is disrupting are not lucrative
Gemini and the supply paradox of AI
A more interesting “bear case” for AI is that, if you look at the list of industries that leading AIs like GPT-4 are capable of disrupting—and therefore making money off of—the list is lackluster from a return-on-investment perspective, because the industries themselves are not very lucrative. What are AIs of the GPT-4 generation best at? It’s things like:
writing essays or short fictions
digital art
chatting
programming assistance
Weird that AI isnt replacing things like management, CEOs, stock investors, accountants... you know, jobs that tend to be about numbers and efficiency, which you would think AI would excel at.
Instead, we have it skirting copyright by stealing other people works and changing it just enough to not be a direct copy.
60stock investors, accountants
Computers already replaced a lot of them long ago.
management, CEOs
What part of their jobs do you think an AI can replace?
18Dead line tracking, task tracking, and strategy creation with analysis over large datasets.
Acting as a trusted third part referencing agreed apon policy for conflict resolution. Decision making based on large data sets, relevent legal documents and company policy.
There is A LOT of work to go for current systems to do this work in a way that is trusted by stakeholders, but I see a lot of these tasks being more and more possible to done well enough to see it taking hold or at least supplementing existing tools.
In an ideal world the stake holders are the employees and community and the AI is constantly learning from and teaching the stakeholders to maintain cohesion and alignment.
10
Weirdly the things it’s the worst at.
4
AI will utterly upend the entertainment industry. Once AI can generate movie-length animated output, Hollywood will go the way of the vaudeville. Directors, film crew, actors and all the supply chain and ancillary industries revolving around movie-making will be obsolete.
4II thin it's actually possible. Normally the argument against is that "AI can't be creative" but when was the last time Hollywood made a creative movie? "Write a script for Spiderman movie. Include origin story. Spiderman will fight Green Goblin. Again.".
8when was the last time Hollywood made a creative movie?
Most Pixar films. They're entirely animated in cg, and yet I highly doubt the ability of an ai to generate a better final product.
3
They can't what do you think the writers strike was all about??
5The thing is, the protections writers won only protected them when working WITH AI. I.e. companies can't hire unionized writers and pay them less because they are using AI. If they can skip the writers all together all those protections go out the window.
I'm not saying this will happen soon or at all. I'm just saying that if the models become capable or generating screen ready material the protections writers won won't matter anymore.
3
We're like 5 years away from this:
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What about LLMs that are taking over or helping with jobs that require sorting and organizing complicated data, and they do it fast, 24/7, and with just enough accuracy. They’re not flawless, but they mess up less than poorly trained and high turnover staff.
4LLMs don't sort or organize data. Machine learning can do it but LLMs specifically only generate text. I think that's the whole point. People confuse machine learning with LLMs. Machine learning can do amazing things in many industries. Companies creating dedicated products using machine learning can make money. LLMs themselves can do very little and huge valuations of companies like OpenAI don't make much sense.
3This is exciting it just probably hasnt come to fruition this quarter. And businesses that are succeeding with AI dont really need to brag about it in the news. (Amazon?)
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