Why didn't SBF flee?
I was wondering why SBF seemingly behaved like an innocent man. Giving interviews, talking to podcasters, remaining at his residence.
Why didn't he make a run for it?
If he did take all those billions as was claimed, why didn't he move to a country that doesn't extradite or just move off the grid for a couple years?
Was he burnt out? complacent? drugs?
Or did he never have that money in the first place?
Everyone had been telling him he was the smartest guy in the room, and he thought he was. Plus BTC and crypto are still kinda in shaky legal status, and he'd made a lot of donations to politicians.
Crypto ain't cash, they can unravel the block chain and figure out the transactions. He can't just disappear with a few mil and not be followed.
By US laws, fraud is fraud, it's just a matter of which agency has jurisdiction over it based on if it's classified as security or commodity.
He believed he was untouchable due to his political contributions to both sides, but he underestimated the reach some of his investors that he stole from had themselves.
You steal from the ultra-rich, this is what happens. If you want into the club, you help them steal from joe-average.
He probably didn't make a run in the beginning because he had convinced even himself that he hadn't done anything wrong, that he'd just been aggressive and sloppy. Then he probably thought that he might be accused of something, but that his money and connections would help him stay out of jail. By the time he was arrested in the Bahamas, it was probably too late. He was too high profile to just slip away.
If he'd been a bit more paranoid, he probably could be on the run today.
He had access to billions. Even if getting it all liquid would have resulted in a 90% loss, that's still hundreds of millions. With that kind of money, you can find a country where you can get a new passport under a new name, and probably get away with faking your own death.
The problem is that to do any of that, you'd have to work with other people, and there would have to be some trust involved. If he wanted to keep the money in a bank, there would have to be some mutual trust with a bank / banker. If he tried to walk around with millions in jewelry, he'd have to avoid getting mugged. If he hired private security, he'd have to avoid getting mugged by his private security. If he tried to use his money to get a passport in say Myanmar, he'd have to have some trust that they wouldn't just imprison him and beat him until he gave him the rest of his money. If he had tried to work with a lawyer who was only slightly bent, he'd have to trust that the lawyer wouldn't turn him in. If he had tried to work with a very bent lawyer, he'd have to trust that the lawyer wouldn't have him tortured until he gave up his money.
While he was definitely a criminal, he was a white-collar criminal from a very white-collar family. He probably had zero connections to underworld figures. So, risking his life going on the run might have seemed like less of a risk than risking that his money and his connections could help him avoid prison time if he didn't run.
You're buying into the story he spent years developing. SBF is a conman from a highly influential family, who used his familial connections to run what essentially was a ponzi scheme. He wasn't a particularly gifted individual, he was just manipulative and had a lot of connections in high places.
He didn't flee because he didn't think he was ever going to prison, and tbh I'm kinda surprised that was the eventual outcome. If it had been any other exchange besides crypto, he probably would have gotten away with it.
Jane Street doesn’t hire non-smart people, and to have passed their hiring process he has to at least have been a talented programmer.
That's not true at all...... Connections go a lot further in wall street than intellect. Even if you're an extremely talented trader, unless you're taking a lot of risk, you're still going to be doing just slightly better than average. The most important aspect of trading is convincing people to join your portfolio, so people with affluent families have a huge advantage.
He did flee, albeit not to country that doesnt extradite to the US. He tried to hide in his techbro trooical get away in the Bahamas.
He didn't flee. That's where he was living. That's where the company was based.
My guess. Dud was just totally disconnected from reality. He isn't that smart and didn't understand how badly he'd fucked up.
Read "Going Infinite" which describes the rise and tall of FTX and SBF. "isn't smart" is not true, but he is definitely not "human smart", but rather "math smart".
We all would do well to recognize different types of intelligence.
I really have no interest in Michael Lewis. He only writes about people he likes and usually fails to analyse their actions critically.
His extradition options are, to my immediate knowledge:
I am certain if he went to either, he'd get killed probably by someone holding the bag on his debt. At a rate quicker than a federal prison.
A lot of people in his position of power truly believe their own hype. I no doubt believe he thought that they would never convict him, that he'd be too intelligent for them to catch, and that he'd be able to buy his way out with his powerful connections.
Because he's a narcissist that thought he could talk his way out anything. He obviously thought wrong, but I'm willing to bet he still thinks it's everyone else that's wrong.
"why didn't he make a run for it" if you realise you will be tried, it is too late. If you try to flee somewhere without a good reason, they will hold you and arrest you.
He's not a genius, but he's also not a total idiot. He knows.
Where would he go? Even countries without extradition treaties can still extradite. There’s no hiding. His options were grim either way.
On top of the many other reasons here, there's also a pretty distinct difference between countries without a US extradition treaty and countries that won't extradite to the US. Many countries without formal treaties will still happily hand over a US citizen trying to hide in their country. It might be a different story if he had dual citizenship somewhere but anywhere he tried to flee he'd be immigrating illegally.
Justice rarely finds the wealthy for long. He was probably counting on his money for protection.
I recommend the book Going Infinite by Michael Lewis for an answer to this question, as it perplexed me as well.
Actually, as great as Lewis writes and as acclaimed as his career is, he completely failed with SBF and fell for the con. He was so enamored with SBF he even told friends to "buy whatever Sam says" at one point. The case later releasing the slack chats contradict his book heavily and while it's common for Lewis to cast controversial subjects in a positive light (Wolf of Wall Street), this one was over the top and a bit of a disaster.
In fact, Behind the Bastards did a great 2 part podcast this month specifically on SBF and Lewis' embedding in his camp. It's fascinating.