Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it
Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it
In 2020, the United States experienced one of its most dangerous years in decades. But in 2023, crime in America looked very different. That change may have gone unnoticed.
In 2020, the United States experienced one of its most dangerous years in decades.
The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30 percent between 2019 and 2020, according to FBI statistics. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, assault, robbery and rape, inched up around 5 percent in the same period.
But in 2023, crime in America looked very different.
"At some point in 2022 — at the end of 2022 or through 2023 — there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall," said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics.
...
There are some outliers to this trend — murder rates are up in Washington, D.C., Memphis and Seattle, for example — and some nonviolent crimes like car theft are up in certain cities. But the national trend on violence is clear.
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You're right, but that's not why people think violent crime is high. They think that because the media knows that when they report on crime, they get eyes on them and eyes on them mean they can sell more advertising. So every violent crime they can report on gets reported on and in ever-increasing numbers to make it look like the amount of violent crime is at least steady, if not rising.
And, of course, that helps "tough on crime" politicians (mostly Republicans) as well.
25Dead men don't tell tales, or some authoritarian shit.
19
Interesting observation:
Rachel Swan, a breaking news and enterprise reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle, says there are "two really visible crises" in the downtown area: homelessness and open-air drug use.
"And honestly, people conflate that with crime, with street safety," she said. "One thing I'm starting to learn in reporting on public safety is that you can put numbers in front of people all day, and numbers just don't speak to people the way narrative does."
91I've seen lots of attack ads that seek to protray homelessness as a crime issue, and not a poverty issue
47Poverty and health. Health linked to poverty. Sometimes the other way around. We’re in a health and housing and affordability crisis.
8
People around here and Reddit get really angry when you point this out. It's weird, it's like people want things to suck.
19its cause all they hear in their news bubbles is doom and gloom and constant violence and shooting.
and cant take a second to think about the fact that these reports are from across the entire fucking country, or even beyond its borders, They just focus on "news says things bad brrrrr"
This is a constant argument in my family, and for this exact reason. No amount of statistical or empirical evidence convinces them, and the response is "If thats true was is the news always reporting violence?!"
15People have a really hard time separating their own personal anecdotal experience from fact. It takes an extremely mature mental state and trust in the data's accuracy. There has been a rise in more extreme crimes, like mass shootings. Overall this makes a negligible impact on the murder rate. But it's scary. The media knows that, more than anything else, gets people's attention. Then people go online and talk about how shitty everything is, and the cycle perpetuates.
The sad part is that people with zero self-esteem often fail simply because they assume they cannot win. And I fear that will be the case for our country as a whole. If we hold onto this belief that we are the worst place on earth, we will fulfill our own prophecy.
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2I think part of it is that if things suck it's an excuse to not do much, things are going to shit and I'm just trying to keep my head up nothing really matters anyway we're all doomed... Compared to things are getting better, the future is looking positive, I'm not really doing much though.
It's why people are so upset at every positive new development in anything and instantly start exaggerating flaws or just refusing to acknowledge it. Post an article backed by real science that mentions we're doing well transitioning away from Carbon and you'll get a couple of doubtful comments and a few votes then post a random guy on the street saying 'i don't really know anything about it but we're probably doomed' and it'll be front page for days
Another example is the sheer amount of people who claim they can't think of a single good use for natural language computing, they've read a hundred articles/memes about ai bad but not a single one mentioned any of the ways it could save lives, improve life style and productivity, etc...
People don't want hope, they want an excuse
2Well I think part of it is WHO is being killed when there are crimes. And that is children. No one can get behind that.
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How about white collar crime? Seems like a lot of people made out pretty well with Covid relief funds.
17Congress insider trading is at an all time high. Shame nobody prosecutes the rich.
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i was looking for numbers though. specifically how crime in 2022 and 2023 compare to BEFORE the big spike that happened in 2019 and 2020. If crime is still higher than it was in 2018, then this local minimum isn't going to matter as much.
10It's lower than 2018. Lower than 2010. Lower than 2000. Lower than 1990.
The only year it's not lower than is 2019. And it's just barely higher.
Americans don't believe it because the media wants us scared.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
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As police shooting are through the roof. Media is strangely quiet on those stats.
4It's actually really hard to get those stats. Most police departments do not publicly report the numbers.
2The ones that are verifiable are through the roof
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They almost never do. There was a brief spike there a few years ago, but overall, violent crime has been going down for decades.
4Three people were killed at my trade school today.
3It’s not a crime if it’s not reported right? If people don’t want the police, or if the police’s job has been hampered, defunded or the like, and the police in turn just don’t care, no it won’t be part of that statistic. But the reality remains, a crime is still a crime even if its status has been changed, it’s just not counted as one. Wrong is wrong. The is why there are those who do t believe claims like this. I’ve seen violence against people, destruction of property, theft and more all done out in the open, and nothing is done about it. To think crime is somehow not happening or “dropping fast” is an absolute and outright lie. It’s straight bullshit through and through. How anyone could believe that is ridiculous. There has been an uptick in violence at least here in California that has mostly gone unreported. Why that is, is a good question. Cartel involvement is a good starting point. You can choose not to believe this, but if you live here, you know - violence is not dropping at all, nor is any other crime.
-3If you want to challenge actual data and claim it's not correct, you need data to show that. If you don't have data to challenge that claim but you're still suspicious, you can say we need more, better data and we should make efforts to gather it.
But simply asserting that the data is wrong with nothing to back you up but the hot air coming out of your mouth is crap and anyone with two brain cells to rub together can see that.
7Anything can be claimed that is true. Rare indeed in these day are statistics about crime if there are less police to enforce laws - that doesn’t make sense to you? You believe people are just committing less crimes, less violent crimes? Yeah really? Sure of course more information is needed. Politics and information aren’t to be trusted 100% and are never to be trusted when they work off each other. You yourself are basing your headline on information from an article that quotes one person - a single individual where did you get any of your information from? Who knows. Where do I get mine from? Same place. I could easily quote many people that feel the same way, would that be helpful? No. Much of what I commented on are instances, situations, circumstances etc. that I have seen, read, heard over an all too long period of time. I live in So. California - San Bernardino actually - and I’ll tell you this, it is a city well versed in violent crime. I personally know police, judges even, well 1 judge. For anyone to claim violent crime is down is a flippin’ joke. A lie to influence people’s opinion. The cartel have an all too solid footing in the States. You can ignore that if you want - the truth is hard to bear. Now if you want to say a certain type of violent crime is dropping for example rape, child abductions or something similar, than make that argument. But titling your post with a generalization that is blatantly false and then defending it by saying I need data to back it up when you yourself ignored that very rule shows you have less than a genuine take on what crimes are happening. Who are you trying to convince?
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I still don't believe it, at least not where I live. Once you have someone in your friend group get murdered, for no good fucking reason, it becomes harder to pretend everything is ok. It doesn't help that the local news reports another stabbing or shooting most days of the week.
-12You probably just notice it more since it has actually affected you.
13Sounds like where you live sucks. But it's always possible to have something random and unlikely happen even in the safest of places. Getting bitten by a shark doesn't mean sharks all need to die. You're just exceptionally unlucky.
12but you're wrong, or you live in an outlier place that's still bad, likely in economic decline
11You should probably ask why the news makes it seem so violent when statistics tell us it's not.
2