Early voters will skew towards the civically engaged, which in turn skews towards the educated and left-leaning. Unfortunately, I can't take too much confidence in this.
Correct. And ALSO - Remember People: This is A LONG GAME. Involving aircraft-carrier-sized loads of bullshit, marches, protests, idiot right-wing news articles, plenty of disinformation panic buttons and many, many, many court cases to wade through.
We'll be lucky if the contest is officially decided by December without the SCROTUS stepping in and calling it for trump just because.
Point being: don't expect it to be quick even if early numbers are good. They know they're going to lose early numbers; that's not their plan. Their plan is cheating, obfuscation, spreading FUD, and more cheating, plus a liberal (haha) smattering of corruption. Fake electors, proud boys, gravy seals, dipshit FBI and DoD people - it's a goddamned army of fascist bastards attacking Democracy. And we have to understand that IS what's going to happen so we can weather it and defeat them.
As usual we will get no help, or very compromised 'help', from the corporate news.
There plenty of mega fucks who were voting early. My racist Trump loving neighbor was ahead of us in the early voting line. This fucking race shouldn't even be close yet here we are.
Robert Reich recently posted a video explaining numbers often skew more blue as votes are counted, especially from more densely populated cities and counties.
"In Pennsylvania, more than 100,000 new voters have already cast their ballots"
That's huge because new voters aren't counted by pollsters as "likely voters". The prime criteria is often "Did you vote in the last election?" or even "Did you vote in the last 2 elections?"
So you look at the left hand column of polling information from PA:
"The federal agency estimates nearly 263,000 people residing in Pennsylvania in 2022 lived in a different state one year ago."
That being said, when I get polled, they only ask if I'm registered in my current state and if I voted in the last election, not if I voted in this state.
OP, you don't need to repost this in every news community! it would be pretty silly to say its gonna be a "comfortable" loss. its gonna be insanely close and posting this kind of stuff discourages further voting. and also, yes. things will get hairy either way. the best outcome is to assume that the worst could happen, and prepare for it. The SCOUTS is betting on this being close so they can pull their shenanigan again.
I don't care if they tell you she's gonna win 100%. do you part and make it happen! ...don't just assume things! go vote, if you haven't already.
Wiki: reliable - There is consensus that The New Republic is generally reliable. Most editors consider The New Republic biased or opinionated. Opinions in the magazine should be attributed.
MBFC: Left - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America