YSK that if US housing and population projections hold, the Electoral College map will change after the 2030 census.
YSK that if US housing and population projections hold, the Electoral College map will change after the 2030 census.
55 comments
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As a leftie who moved to one of those red states, please come help. We can flood these places with enough people to tip them, we just need to stop with fatalistic bullshit about how these states are "beyond all hope." No they're fucking not. Get out of your comfort zone, do your duty to our democracy, and ffs stop self sorting into deep blue states. Staying where it's blue is easy but it doesn't do much good.
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As a leftie who moved to a red state a decade ago, welcome to the suck. It only gets worse.
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Lol I know, I know. I'm not a decade in yet, but it's been a good half decade and it's definitely... an experience.
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Of those in red states during presidental elections, they are around 25-35% of voters that voted for a Democrat president. And there's a big untouched potential with nonvoters who aren't convinced by either political party. There's no reason to give up on any state
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Ngl, I just spent a week in Indiana. Hate to say it, but the vibe was truly "beyond all hope."
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Something missing from the displayed data, not sure if the article goes into it (not going through NYT paywall bullshit to find out) but Idaho, Utah and Texas will very likely gain a blue voting electoral college vote. If, after this Trump bullshit concludes (providing it concludes), we don't have a major overhaul of how elections work including a change to first past the post, we kind of deserve fascism or all out civil war.
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Texas will very likely gain a blue voting electoral college vote.
eh? Not sure I'm understanding you. EC votes in Texas are winner-takes-all.
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You're right, we've got several states, mostly Republican leaning, that are winner take all. But these extra blue seats could potentially allow for an entire state swing in some states as yaroto98 pointed out. If it doesn't do that, what it will do is piss enough people off because they're not represented to get the groundswell needed to force changes.
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Thank you for pointing out the issues with fptp - so many people don't understand just how big of an issue it really is. We will never see the change we want (or honestly any real change at all) without abandoning it. Not to diminish your other valid points, I just have a particular passion about that one.
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Yep, most of the people leaving those blue states are leaving due to high cost of living and going to cheaper states. The HCOL means they're likely from metropolitan areas, meaning they're likely democrat voters. Very few of them are going to rural areas, they're going to cities in the cheaper states. This will have a bigger impact on presidential elections than congress, due to gerrymandered maps. It might be enough to flip these states as they're all-or-nothing states.
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They are in for a shock if they come to Texas thinking is cheaper. The property taxes and insurance on houses is crazy here and can be counted on to increase at 10% per year. I went back and looked at my homeowners policy from 2016 vs 2025 and I started out paying $1600 per year and just paid $4800 for worse coverage this year. No claims or anything, I don't live near the coast, not in a flood zone, not in a forest, no history of damaging hail, roof was replaced in 2016.
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This will have a bigger impact on presidential elections than congress, due to gerrymandered maps. It might be enough to flip these states as they’re all-or-nothing states.
great, so more "I'm a blue president, but yikes, we don't has congress :( pwease vote in midterms for us to deliver our promises" presidents.
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Like there'll be elections in 2032
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This is assuming we still have a congress in 2030. And if we do, that electoral votes will matter, or happen.
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They will always happen. The illusion of democracy is valuable even to the fascists.
Whether they mean anything, or ever meant anything, is the question.
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I suspect they are going to fail at that illusion. And the results of that failure will be very violent.
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It took the Emperor 20 years to remove the Senate in Star Wars.
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Who the hell is even moving to Utah? It sucks.
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Mormons and skiers, also a decent amount getting born there too. There fertility rate may not be positive but it's a lot better then the other states so they're relatively gaining population.
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Out of the 4 reds it's the best option, tho. Those places are hell
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Just because a state has historically voted a particular way does not mean new people to the state will vote that way.
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that's the point of the census
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Man, some wild shit is going to happen before 2032. All of this is one scenario, yes, maybe, but this stuff is like weather forecasting on the Titanic at this point.
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Bold of you to assume the Electoral College will still exist in 2030, or even 2028.
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If it doesn't get abolished, I don't care.
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doesnt sound like you be living in a democracy
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No, this would almost certainly be a symptom of the Republic functioning more or less correctly. I'll get to what that means in a moment.
Each state gets exactly two senators and at least one congressman. If the state has a large population, it gets more congressmen, which is why, say, Virginia has more congressmen than Wyoming does despite Wyoming being physically larger. Nobody lives in Wyoming.
Well, what if a large number of people move out of Virginia and move into Wyoming? Why should the state of Virginia keep representatives for people it no longer has? This is a major reason we do a census every ten years.
There is some rot to be removed here: The number of representatives was capped, so instead of "count your population, divide by 100,000 and send that many representatives) or whatever, there's this weird algorithm where "everyone gets one, and then we rank the states by how many people are represented per congressman. The one with the biggest people to congressman ratio is issued another congressman, until they've all been distributed." Which still makes it kinda goofy.
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yeah, exactly!
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Our democracy is gone and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. With that said, please vote. Midterms are our last actual chance to hold on
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It is funny that in Piefed this topic is classified under "Chilling"
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Ill best state
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What kind of Roman numerals are R, N, and Y?
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Yes, I'm from the great state of 3.
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55 comments
The cap on HoR seats is possibly one of the worst things that have ever happened in american democracy.
1000% true. Makes it so much easier for unpopular, minority ideas to make a much bigger impact because it limits voting power of the majority. Without the current arbitrary limit, you'd set the number of congressmen each state gets by the least populous state divided by 3 (since each state gets 2 senators and at least 1 representative). That state is Wyoming and they have just under 600,000 people. With 1 congressman per 200,000 people, California alone would have 196 representatives and 2 senators.
The best option is to rewrite the constitution and put some population restrictions on state representation in Congress (because why does a state with less people in it that the unrepresented city of Washington DC have 3 congressmen?!). But as that seems very far away, the best thing that would be done is to get rid of the cap on representatives and let all Americans have an equal (representative) vote in Congress.
Plus with 1,555 representatives (plus 100 senators) we can loosen the two party stranglehold on this country.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reapportionment_Act_of_1929 for anyone curious
It’s incredible to me just how many people don’t even know it’s a thing! Schools still just uncritically teach that the house has proportional representation, but it simply doesn’t!
It has proportional representation, it's just really big portions.