Could Donald Trump lose Florida? Poll sparks warning about Kamala Harris

She has had good turnout in events but don't let that fucking fool you. Florida is mostly republican but not like 90% - you can find plenty of die hard liberals in the state.

I'm not saying it's impossible but don't hold your fucking breath.

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We voted for Obama, twice. Florida is more purple than most believe.

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- I feel like this has changed a lot in the last 12 years. Florida was a battleground state but many conservatives flocked there after the state and Scott and DeSantis leaned into the whole “freedom” thing.
  
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- The main beef with Florida is that the Democrats are just not well organized. As a campaign you can take a risk to invest in a purplish state if there’s a good team on the ground to help you (looking at Georgia for instance). If the organisation is not there, it’s just too risky.
  
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- Well, it's kind of hard to believe because of the absolutely insane people you keep voting into office somehow.
  
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As a diehard leftie who is unfortunately stuck in Florida for this election season, I will absolutely be voting for Kamala.

Kamala Kamala, Kamala, Kamala Kamala!

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- You can do more. You can get organized and help people get organized. As someone in a state that is perma-blue, I envy you and how much political impact you could make.
  
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Worst case, Harris doing well forces Trump to spend more money there. I'm pretty sure his ego would take a big hit losing Florida, so I hope that effects it too and he overspends.

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Mmmmm, lets see if this hurricane season changes that.

I can tell you Ian opened some eyes in my area. They're very interested in the gulf water temp charts I've sent them now.

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- Yeah, I feel like people had this idea of rising sea levels looking like a bathtub filling.
  
  No. This is the ocean. It's going to look like Ian and Katrina, and sometimes it won't give back.
  
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50% of those republic voters found out that SCOTUS intends for them to make babies, fetch sandwiches, and shut up about their opinions.

The percentage of women who are cool with that is vanishingly small.

I wouldn’t be so sure.

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- I think you'll depressingly find the number of women who are okay with it is surprisingly large - the GOP is basically embracing tradwife bullshit at this point and it seems to still get the majority of conservative women.
  
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But what's the voter turnout like? My brother lives in Florida and he proudly doesn't vote.

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- Allegedly 77% in 2020 according to the FL government. I assume that's among registered voters though, not all eligible.
  
  https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/
  
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Yeah, I hope she doesn't pull a Hillary and dump a bunch money into Florida and Texas instead of campaigning in actual swing states.

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Note, even if she is unlikely to win the state, she could force them to campaign there a little and divest resources from places that are leaning blue. Nobody wants to take a "safe" state for granted after 2016.

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Warning? How about a beacon of hope!

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So, if he loses Florida will he have to move again? Somewhere in the Midwest, maybe? Texas (until enough Democrats move there to turn it blue)?

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Moscow, probably

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I get the idea of forcing Trump to waste resources in Florida, but really, the state has just been getting redder, and we don't want to repeat the Hillary playbook.

Shore up support in the actual battleground states and the weaker "lean Dem" states (e.g., New Hampshire). 270 is all you need.

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Did you see the article about Kamala Harris at The Villages? She got a good response. And no state is pure red nor pure blue. People change.

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she's got my vote

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Yes he could lose Florida! Meatball Ron won his first term like 50.5% to 49.5%. Florida is a swing state, but Democrats are so dysfunctional statewide that they can't organize a two person picnic.

I think that's changing with the March For Our Lives kids coming of age.

The Harris campaign needs to take all this money they're getting and invest it in states Biden got 45% or higher in 2020. They can get those states.

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Hope so, but he is up +7 in the poll in the article.

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It's pretty wild to look at a +7 polling lead as a potential loss.

That's like, Texas margins.

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- That's really not that wild considering recent special elections Dems winning by a large margin when it was expected to be close, or even go the other way. Polls have been skewing more red than reality for quite a while now.
  
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florida hates democrats but they love the policies. Imo, campaigning in florida should be about improving medicaid and medicare, reducing administrative costs etc.

I think Harris is the kind of wine mom that appeals there but democrats are a tough sell there.

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I'm not American so I'm a little confused.

If "polls" is surveys from individuals, but the popular vote doesn't matter, then what's the point of these headlines anyway?

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The winner of the popular vote within the state wins the state's electoral votes. And Florida has a sizeable number of electrical votes.

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- its so weird that we have a difficult to understand electoral college system and yet one of the common arguments against ranked choice and party list voting is "its too hard to understand"
  
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- electrical votes
  
  you mean eclectic votes?
  
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FL has 30 EC votes so a statewide poll on their opinions is pretty important. Having said that, we don't know for sure whether or not the poll is accurate or indicative of the opinions of the people who will actually vote.

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Every state gets a number of Electoral College votes, that's a fixed number. And each state is winner take all, the popular vote doesn't matter because every vote past 51% of a state's election numbers is wasted. California has the highest population of US citizens, it generally is very liberal and Democrats win pretty often. From a local perspective, the GOP haven't had significant votes after they started using very racist rhetoric about Hispanics, and it's hard to find anyone in CA who isn't Hispanic, Or the spouse of a Hispanic person, or the in-law, or just friends with all those same people, so it really ruined their numbers out here. So with the majority of the country living in this state, everything after 51% of our total vote numbers is ignored, those millions of votes don't counter the very few votes coming out of Indiana, or Ohio, or Wisconsin. Our effective votes are a percentile below 1, low pop states have effective votes well above 1.

But, it still always matters how many people are voting up to that 51% mark, if the survey projects Harris at or above those numbers she'll get all their EC votes, so that's why the survey matters, it's also how the candidates decide how to spend money, Harris won't put $5mil into Idaho, they aren't even close to voting Democrat and it's one of the most openly racist states in the US the chance they would change their mind is very slim, so, they won't waste the money there. In the end, it always comes down to how much money they raised, and how well they spent it.

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- Isn't it make more sense to spend more money where you're behind?
  
  Like, if you're so sure you would win at Cali anyway then why even try anymore? On the other hand, you might want to spend extra time and money in places like Idaho to convince and convert more people to vote for you?
  
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I put this out last week. I was looking at the maps from 2012, 16, and 20, and then looking at the 2020 census product.

Since its not my day job I can't prioritize the analysis I want to do, but at least in the aggregate, the demographics are there for a blue victory. If I can get around to it, I'll post my results when I have them.

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if only the people not allowed to vote in Florida could vote

doubt the US would be red or blue if everyone here could vote

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doubt the US would be red or blue if everyone here could vote

It's a binary choice: every vote that isn't blue is red. As a bonus, if they want to vote next time too, it'll be blue.

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- if it were a binary choice then it would reflect in nature
  
  does not
  
  the two party system is an illusion and you can escape the matrix
  
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The polls are STILL a bunch of shit

I’m happy the D line is going up, but the truth is, nobody knows what’s gonna happen.

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Nobody likes republicans in south Florida except for the few weirdos and fucking losers.

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It would be cool. It would absolutely turn the race on its head. Florida has 30 EC votes these days.

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Oh, how I would looooove to donnie lose Florida. That would be {chef's kiss}.

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The abortion and marijuana ballot measures are on the Florida ballot. They need 60% to pass. If abortion gets 60% of the vote, what are the odds that Harris gets 50%?

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TL;dr - He's 7 points ahead.

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The title does not reflect the article. It shows Kamala is 6 points behind Trump. Same as Joe Biden was. It also says Joe lost Florida in 2020 by 3 points. If anything, she’s doing worse than in 2020 and even then Florida wasn’t really at play.

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