Asklemmy @lemmy.ml

5d ago

What technology will disappear in the next 10 years?

It goes without saying, DVDs/BlueRays.

180 comments

All of it, humanity will be wiped out in the Second Emu War, and birds don't need phones.
- Birds aren't real

I have no idea but hopefully the 'Proprietary' branch of human technology is discontinued.
- If things continue on the path they're already on, it will get worse, sadly. At least that's my opinion. I really hope it dies out.
- ha fat chance. unless capitalism collapses in 10 years.
  which ha, fat chance.

Please be "ai"... Please be "ai"...
- Nope. The next super mario will have goombas again, and they will have AI again

Clearly not IPV4.
- Shit. I've been waiting for IPv6 for 20 years.
  
  Maybe eventually my kids will have IPv6 as the common sense default and will marvel at the ingenuity of their ancestors to keep using way too few addresses for way too many devices
- My ISp shares a single IPv4 between multiple customers, NAT 444.
  So my PC is on 192.168.1.4 on the LAN, my router is on 10.183.13.62 on my ISPs network and some number of customers are sharing 84.146.73.54
  They don't give out IPv6 addresses though.
- Funnily enough I recently had to disable ipv4 in a game because of connection issues.

I'm going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.
There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We're currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.
- we still see a lot of 20-40yr old cars around, many daily driven. if we suddenly stop making ice cars today, its still taking a while for them to truly go away in practical terms.
  
  Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.
- I think the EU has plans to stop the sale of ICEs in 10 years, so... that could start a snowball effect.
- I don't think that's bold.
  It's already at 25% last month and 50+% in China.
  
  It's only the timescale I'm unsure about.
  
  A majority of Chinas EVs outside of Shenzhen are hybrids. Unless youre counting vespas, there's way more electrics.
- I believe this.. But the USA being an exception
  
  They are rolling coal in the wasteland while civilised people live in the clouds, jetsons style

The way shit is headed, probably vaccines.
- *in the US
  
  I believe it’s propagating outside of the US

If anything I think DVDs and Blu-rays are going to rise. All across the media landscape people seem to be getting annoyed with the "own nothing" society we're in. The thrift stores are full of thousands of DVDs for barely any cost. Last week I bought the Matrix 2 and 3 and Der Untergang in DVD for like 3 bucks. Way easier than figuring out in which streaming service to watch them and what OS and browser will let it play at HD resolution. Once "the youth" picks up on this like they did with CDs and digicams the DVD will be back.
Recently In bought a Blu-ray of Star Wars Andor because I love the series and want to support it, but Disney+ wouldn't play beyond 480p on my setup. My trusty old PS3 plays it like a dream and the resulting image is ridiculously sharp compared to streaming.
CDs, cassettes, and vinyl are already booming or in the rise again. And the streaming audio landscape is arguably way nicer than the streaming video lanschape. In photography there's also a wave of film and early digital camera hype.
I hope that the next 10 years brings the resurgence of the physical medium and ownership. And if not that, the resurgence of the high seas.
- Apparently theres a rise in demand for "dumb TVs", to the point people are paying a premium...no sources, I read it on Lemmy.
  
  I bought one last year and when I need to replace a TV, I will do it again.
  
  No surprise to me. Everything I've heard from smart TVs has made me decide that I don't want one. Expensive telemetry machines. My current TV is basically just a dumb screen and I wouldn't want it any other way.
- I mean flash drives, SD card and others are just as good as DVDs these days and are getting cheaper and cheaper by the day so I cannot really see why people would want DVDs and Blue Rays these days
  
  If it were up to me that'd be fine indeed. But they probably want to retain compatibility with existing setups and unfortunately they will also want some DRM, which Blu-ray provides. A new flash storage (or even just download/file-based) standard should totally be possible, but that'd first require some investment.
  Also, there's some joy in having the plastic spinny thing and putting it into a machine to watch the content. Not having all the content ready at your fingertips and instead putting some throught and effort into getting to the content is what makes stuff like vinyl popular again.
  
  You're right - they're massively better than spinny bits of plastic in every way. Speed, capacity (1tb tfcard the size of your pinky nail), cost (probably) and longevity. DVD/CD's don't last very well in storage.
- They'll never come back because studios will never release new movies on them.
  Piracy is coming back strong, but I don't personally see myself going back to burning DVDs instead of buying HDD/SSDs.
  
  I mean, you're still able to buy the Star Wars shows on Blu-ray, so physical disks for video content might remain just like people but vinyls as a collectors item. DVDs will be for old content only, but there are still so many that they may nevertheless become popular again.
- Well with your DVDs the "HD resolution" question is easily answered: you don't get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
  I'm all for media ownership, but I don't see the point in buying optical discs (with rather limited lifetime) at 720x480px resolution. Blu rays at least offer HD / UHD, but the plastic / coating will still degrade with time.
  I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
  
  Because unlike with Disney+ I'd pay like one euro and I'm able to watch the content forever. But you're right, it isn't HD. Blu-ray is tho, with the same benefits
  
  Well with your DVDs the "HD resolution" question is easily answered: you don't get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
  While I generally agree here, resolution isn't everything, bitrate also plays a role, and some content in streaming services has been compressed rather badly so that you get artifacts that you don't have on DVDs. A DVD will certainly look better than 480p streaming content despite a much older codec which light only exists as a reason for an upsell.
  I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
  And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?

Windows for home consumers/home PCs hopefully.

Not disappear entirely, but most households won't own desktop computers or HDDs.
- Most people connected to the Internet today have never owned a desktop computer nor an HDD. A crazy amount of people have been introduced to computing with smartphones.
- As a homelabber, this makes me sad. Perhaps enshittification will push people back into home/local computing.
  
  homelabbing isnt even my gripe with it. its not ever interacting with computers on your own terms, only on theirs. smartphones are a black box.
  i see ads, artificial annoyances, and human right violations by technology increasing in lockstep with the reduction of our collective control over computing.
  
  I would hope, but on the whole you'd almost think they deliberately purged home computing from the mainstream consciousness, with how tragically ignorant the average person is about anything that isn't a little poke-driven rectangle that screams at you all day.
  
  M.2 > HDD

I feel like DVDs/Blurays already disappeared 10 years ago and are now making a comeback. Same for CDs. Streaming services don't let you own anything, and if they pull something down, you're SOL. Self hosting Plex and ripping my own disks has given me a level of freedom not possible with netflix et. al. Especially since DVDs are considered garbage to most people now, you can set up your own streaming service for you and your friends and family for cheap. No piracy necessary.

I don't know about DVDs, nearly 2 decades ago I thought optical media was dead and yet somehow it's still here.

Cash, at least in europe. In my opinion that decision would mark one of the most epic political fails in recent history but I fear, that's what's going to happen.
- I just hope that something like GNU Taler (which keeps buyers' privacy and forces sellers to report their earnings properly) becomes the norm, as opposed to the proprietary plastic card transactions we have now. I myself am guilty of switching to that system because cash is just insanely inconvenient, but I also recognize it's pretty bad.
- Why would it be a failure? I loved never having to carry anything but a phone in China.
  
  There are a few countries like Sweden and India that are pushing more and more towards all digital payments and slowly trying to wean off cash. I think this is terrible for a number of reasons.
  The big one is I work on the side as an electrician from my day job. I get paid in cash (it's usually only like 5-10 hours a week). I save up that money and have been paying my plumber or tile guy for work that I don't want to tackle on my own at my house. There's a whole undercurrent of labor and an economy that gets paid in cash that does not need uncle Sam's prying eyes. I imagine it will be a long time before banks would stop taking cash in countries pushing for everything to be digital, but who knows.
  The other reason is the more vulnerable people in society. You can't tell me that making everything cashless and only payable via smart phone doesn't massively screw someone over who's homeless. A lot of people only get by via panhandling and if suddenly they can't buy food or ride public transit without a phone that is connected to cell service, that is a massive barrier.
  Lastly, all cash restaurants and bars. They're still common in my area. Things are usually a little cheaper there and I like paying cash for a few drinks. Or like the one bar I go to is still kinda lawless haha, a PBR is $2.
  
  Resiliance: No (electrical) power, no servers, no transactions, no (a bit exaggerated) society.
  Full corporation surveillance. Even worse: Performed by unsupervised and proprietary algorithms.
  Following 2) full governmental surveillance.
  
  Because iso/power failures, lost/broken devices, let alone the government doesn't need to know every transaction, the inability to gift a displaced person $20, or money in a birthday card.
- Unless something huge and world-altering happens, there is a 100% chance that it will not disappear in ten years. That would take generations because of the outliers. Although it will massively reduce in usage, and it wouldn't surprise me if non-food stores begin to phase out cash purchases in a decade.
  China is already demonstrating this, since pretty much everything is paid for with a phone these days. And some vendors are using "no cash" signs.

I thought disks were dead 10 years ago
- Discs**
  Disks continue to be the most efficient way to store bonkers amounts of data.
  Disks refers to magnetic storage or solid state flash storage.
  Discs refers to optical media.
  While optical is still king for physical distribution of media to the masses due to its low cost of production, the rise of streaming will certainly be the thing that rips physical ownership from the hands of the people.
  Dont stop buying DVDs or Blurays
  
  Sorry for the spelling
  Well, I was born in 2000. When I was growing up, DVDs were everywhere. Almost all books that require supplimentary materials would include a DVD with it, we would buy all kinds of games in DVDs. DVD almost gave a feeling of storing the data physically somewhere, like you would include a DVD in a photo album that contains videos, photos were developed and put in albums and so were DVDs because you cannot really develop and watch videos.
  DVDs were a part of our culture growing up and as much as I love DVDs, the times are changing and we need to change with it. We need to make peace with the current technology, whatever little it takes from us, it gives 10fold in return. A flash drive takes in that feeling of owning a DVD while providing 10x storage.
  I see kids these days prefer sending files over google drive from one device to another near each other because they are too lazy to care about using wires. Funny how technological advancements have changed how people think.
  I dont really believe streaming services have much to do with DVDs because people will find a way to download and listen to their favourite songs anyways.

Hopefully fax machines, but these things seem incapable of dying.
- Fun? Fact, I'm in my mid twenties and have never used them.
- Unless you're trying to use one. Then they're always broken.
- German government has entered the ~~chat~~ landline
- i havent seen one in years
  
  Well obvious umbrella. It’s bad luck to open you in the house, and we don’t keep the fax machines outside.

Social security and pensions I think.
- I don't know of any millennial or younger who assumes there will be a safety net for them at the end of the road. We just don't trust those in charge to keep it. I'll fight for it, I paid into it and I want others to have it, but I can't bank on it either
  
  There's simply no way to keep pensions. It's like a big pyramid scheme where new people are putting the money and old people are enjoying them; the problem is that old people are growing and they've been living longer, and young people are less and less.
- Fuck that, we'll burn it all down if they take social security from us. It's largely paid from existing taxes as it is. We just need to get through this shit show of an administration first. That or pray Mario shows up

hopefully ai
- We call it AI now but machine learning algorithms have been around for 70 years now and basically run the world
- AI technologie could be nice. LLM and Diffusion models ruining the Internet with fake information and Fake art, being over hyped as AI that will change the world, all while burning up unimaginable amounts of energy? Yeah, I also hope it goes away.
- No way. We will build grids and power for eventual AI takeover of common employees like fast food. It's a sad future.
  
  Thus converting a workforce of poorly paid fast food employees into one of highly paid utility workers.

I'd say consumer printers
We're running towards all digital, only a few edge cases will still require them
- Most of my print jobs... maybe one a month, are for either artistic reasons or for making labels to stick on things.
  I do still print tickets out of habit though, just in case I lose/forget my phone or drain the battery that day, though this has literally never happened.
- self-inflicted, if they played nice we would all be printing from home.
  upside is less paper waste
- I’ve found myself needing to print something only 1-2 times per year, so I just go to the library to do it. E-waste-wise, this change is for the better
  
  Luckily we’ve invited 10 new gadgets for you to make sure we meet our e waste goals

I don't think we will be losing optical disks ever.
If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss. IIRC Facebook burns optical disks for old photographs and instead of having a hard drive array or tape library they had a RAID based optical disk system.
Optical disks are great, but not for the daily user since most media content is online and most storage is judged on being rewritable.
- If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss
  They also need very particular storage conditions (temperature and humidity in particular), otherwise they will discrot. But yeah they are likely to store data for longer than solid-state media at least.
- i completely agree, though i hope that eventually we can settle on something like Cerabyte for long term archival storage.

3G networks

Voting machines
- YES, In the USA (United Slaves of America.)

Tablets.
The market for them is very thin. With phones getting bigger and convertible laptops being more lightweight I don't see much market for tablets.
Which is a shame because it's s good format for comic reading and more durable than a convertible laptop (they always break by the hinges) but I think in ten years it will be quite hard to find a tablet for sale.
- Unless digital artists are replaced with AI entirely, I don't see that happening. iPads (unfortunately) are kind of the golden standard there. If anything I expect drawing tablets without screens to disappear.
- Honestly I would say it might go the other way with laptops disappearing and being replaced with tablets.
  The operating systems and software on tablets is getting ever more capable even for productivity stuff. Add to that newer generations growing up while using mostly smartphones and maybe sometimes a computer and I believe if having to decide they would choose a tablet over a laptop. In general the line between laptops and tablets is getting a bit blurry with windows based tablet PC's and tablets that come with a keyboard cover.
- RIP PDAs with keyboard. Another form factor I miss

Bluerays will still exist because of japanese laws. How am I supposed to get my anime without dimming if I don't pirate bluerays?
- anime without dimming
  So that's the secret! When I first noticed this happening I thought I was a little bit crazy lol.

Commercial TV

I don't expect it so quickly, but hopefully lithium ion batteries (and variants like Li-poly, LiFePO4, etc)
- Sodium batteries are already commercially available and although their volumetric energy density and round trip efficiency is lower than lithium I think they are a promising alternative to lead acid and some lithium applications.
  
  What are their advantages?
- Can you explain why and how? Do you imagine other (better?) batteries, or the disappearance of the need for batteries?
  
  It's definitely the former.
  
  Yes, better batteries that don't spontaneously combust, and last for far more charge cycles

Search engines, I guess. No I won't elaborate, mostly because I have no confidence.
- I'm already using ChatGPT to replace 80% of my Google searches. No sponsored bullshit. Yet.
  
  Talk about being part of the problem.
  
  ChatGPT May Be Eroding Critical Thinking Skills, According to a New MIT Study
  
  then you made incredibly uninspiring use of the tools and nobody will miss your participation.

Maybe USB A?
- Here's hoping that some USB flavors will be phased out, but then again, fucking TIFF is still around, so...
  
  Talking about image files? What’s wrong with TIFF?
- Nah, that shit will probably outlive all of us. As the last humans are struggling to survive in the hot hell they used to call earth, someone somewhere will be making a device with USB A <-> Micro B cable included in the box.
  
  Haha yeah in the apocalypse there’s no fancy USB C. But one day it might not be so fancy and new. I haven’t seen an old DVI in a while except electric drum set.

Aux cables

Car keys/fobs

Social media as we know.

I am with you on physical media, and it is sad. Physical media is the only media you really own.
- Physical media is the only media you really own.
  Hard disagree. You can own any file encoded with an open standard. And it's easier to index, search, manipulate, back up, etc. It feels more like owning than having the data on a micrometer-thick metal layer sandwiched in a fragile plastic disc that can easily scratch or discrot. There is a reason people have been ripping CDs since PC CD drivers became a thing.
  
  Files on your own hardware are equally good as physical media.

my answer varies quite a bit depending on whether we mean tech that will be relegated to specific niche use cases and markets, tech that will no longer be produced at all, or tech that can't be found any more, even used.
the first category could include a lot of things, like most of the other suggestions that have already been suggested here, but i don't think there's any chance of blu-ray discs or desktop computers being totally gone in that time frame. the second category will probably include small gasoline powered cars, at least in some countries. and the third category will probably include most standard incandescent or CFL light bulbs, but they might still exist in some niche applications.
- I imagine incandescent will remain if for no other reason than lava lamps. They've got just enough fans and the incandescent is perfect for them. If their manufacture goes away some niche uses company will probably pick them up.
  Period focused lighting may also use them. And, now I'm remembering the monthly or so task of having to replace light bulbs back when I was a kid. It feels like a ridiculous old timey thing these days, like milkmen.
  
  Lava lamps actually don't have any fans, the motion is driven by convection instead! /jk

Bike locks. Surveillance will be expanded to the point that petty crimes will become impossible.
Why the downvotes? Do you disagree with the expectation or do you dislike the development? The question is about what will happen, not what we want to happen. I don't like it but I expect full surveillance in 10 years.
- Ha! The police don't pursue crimes against cyclists.
  
  What technology will disappear in the next 10 years?
  It will be fully automated. You mark the position and time, an AI checks the record and the thief will be punished. No police nor judge needed.

I'd say charging cables / most kinds of wires.
People are used to and comfortable with wireless charging these days despite it being spotty in terms of availability.
Better charging rates and capacity to power larger appliances might end up with you having a completely wireless home.
- I've heard this before. But the biggest downside of wireless charging for me is I can't use my device while it's charging. Wireless chargers in the vast majority of scenarios aren't even getting rid of wires. You still need to connect the wireless charger to the wall with a cable.
- Wireless charging is slow, inefficient, and straight up wastes power. It's not that great.
  
  I agree but tech could improve
- Not going to happen, quite a few phones have 65W+ chargers nowadays which wireless can't replicate
- Only true wireless charging would kill wired chargers. The so called wireless charger still need to be charged with a cable
- Next ten years? Sounds more like a 50/100 year prediction

Manual appliances. You can open the fridge, but only if you pay your monthly subscription fee to keep it restocked.
We work hand-in-hand in retailers to make online shopping the default, whilst making the UI only accessible to AI bots, so if you want a stocked fridge; pay your fees.
- Sounds like an out of touch tech bro.
  
  Yup. Worse still, I can see this extending to other appliances. Haven't paid your monthly washing machine service fee? Our partnership with the only water company in your area authorizes us to shut off your water.

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